Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
857 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

afternoon storms in southwest Kansas are dissipating rather
quickly this evening. A few high resolution models keep
convection going in eastern Colorado this evening with
further development east overnight. Expect...main impact
from storms will be an increase in cloud cover in far northern
Oklahoma. A better chance for a few storms will come Sunday
afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into
northern Oklahoma.


Previous discussion... /issued 805 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014/

VFR conditions are expected to persist. Winds will be relatively
light from the south tonight. A surface front will move into
northern Oklahoma Sunday morning shifting the winds to northerly
at the northern taf sites and winds veering to southwesterly south
of the boundary.

Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014/

breezy and hot conditions continue for another day or two before
significant cool down and good chance of rain.

Models disagree somewhat on timing of initial surface boundary for
tomorrow into tomorrow night. Will go with slightly faster
NAM/European model (ecmwf) for initial frontal timing Sunday. This should bring a
few degrees of cooling to far northern Oklahoma for Sunday afternoon
and some low precipitation chances. This boundary will slip south toward
I-40/I-44 by Monday morning. Best rain chances remain across the
north until we get to the north of much stronger front makes its
way south into and through the area Monday night.

Tuesday highs are expected to be anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees
cooler with perhaps a few locations across the north remaining in
the 70s. This will be with only a slight chance of rain... but
abundant cloud cover. Best chances of rain occur late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as an mesoscale convective system likely develops to our northwest
and then slides southeast across OK and North Texas late Tuesday night
and continue to affect much of the area on Wednesday. This could lead to
some flood/flash flood potential and will need to be watched
closely. This will also make for a very cool day on Wednesday with
many locations remaining in the 70s. Temperatures in the 70s a distinct
possibility Thursday as well. Before warming trend commences
Friday. Chances of rain linger through the second half of the
week... with best chances across the south/southeast... closer to
surface boundary.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 99 73 94 / 0 0 20 30
Hobart OK 71 101 74 97 / 0 0 20 20
Wichita Falls Texas 73 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 20
gage OK 69 95 69 91 / 0 20 30 30
Ponca City OK 73 96 71 90 / 0 20 40 30
Durant OK 74 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 20


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations