Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
935 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015
an area of very light rain over the Texas Panhandle may brush the
southwestern edge of our forecast area overnight...most likely
leaving only a trace of rain if any occurs at all. Our current
forecast seems reasonable...but we may need to make adjustments
if somewhat more significant rain makes it farther east than
After tonight...mid-level ridging should remove any chance of rain
for a couple of days.
All other forecast attributes appear to be in good shape at this
time...and no changes are expected this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 605 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015/
light showers will continue to flirt with gag/wwr this evening...
but will not mention in the tafs at this time. Otherwise will
continue to see mainly middle/high clouds spread east over the area.
Previous discussion... /issued 159 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015/
a large upper low over Southern California this afternoon will
become our eventual weather-maker later this week. Ahead of the
low some middle and high clouds will at times affect the Southern
Plains. A strong warm-up starts Monday and lasts into Wednesday
when short-wave ridging is induced by the slowly-approaching upper
low. Rain chances will begin to increase later Wednesday in
western Oklahoma with the initial waves associate with the low.
Models are fairly consistent into Thursday with the upper low
moving into southern New Mexico and giving parts of western and
southern OK and adjacent areas of Texas a good chance for
rain/thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night. Beginning Friday,
models continue to differ in the movement of the upper system. The
European model (ecmwf) takes it back to the southwest and has its influence give
way to a building upper ridge late in the weekend. The GFS
continues to slowly drift it across Oklahoma as an open wave
Saturday with a chance for showers/thunderstorms. Given that both
models bring a surface front into northern Texas late Friday and
for forecast consistency 6 days out, low probability of precipitation are retained for
Saturday. Temperatures the second half of the week are expected to
be near normals under the cloud cover.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 54 74 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 55 75 55 83 / 0 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 57 78 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 52 73 52 81 / 10 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 50 74 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 56 80 59 84 / 0 0 0 0