Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1133 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015
the 18z aviation discussion follows....
winds will vary in speed and direction today and this evening...as
the presence of a surface pressure trough and daytime heating
affect the pressure gradient and vertical mixing. After a cold
front moves through OK/North Texas overnight tonight...winds will become
more steadily north...with moderate speeds through the day tomorrow.
There are indications that a few hours of ceilings around 1500 feet
will occur early tomorrow in far north OK...associated with the
incoming cooler airmass. The cloud layer is probable at kpnc...but
not likely enough to mention at kgag/kwwr.
Previous discussion... /issued 1033 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/
temperatures have already warmed into the 60s most places and are still
expected to climb into the middle 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Some
locations are forecasted near or breaking record highs again
today. Humidities will be low this afternoon. The warm temperatures... low
humidities...and somewhat breezy winds will combine to elevate the
fire danger to very high this afternoon. Currently do not have an area
forecasted with red flag criteria but a few locations will be
close... with the best chance in parts of central OK. This is
where wind speeds have the best chance of meeting criteria for a
few hours but right now min relative humidity values are expected to remain above
20 percent. So will hold off on any headlines and continue to
monitor the trends. Updates out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 558 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/
VFR conditions will prevail. Southwest winds will increase late
this morning then decrease around sunset. A cold front will move
through the area bringing moderate north winds.
Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/
another hot day today with forecast maximum temperatures roughly 25 to
30 degrees above average. Wind will pick up this afternoon as well
/especially in the central and east/ which will create elevated
fire weather concerns again today. We are currently forecasting
humidity to remain above 20 percent so will not issue fire weather
headlines... but will highlight the concern in fwf and other
A cold front moves through the area tonight bringing a return to
January. An approaching storm system will give US high chances of
precipitation Friday into Sunday. Temperatures will not be too
cold with this system... but may drop enough in diurnally cool
times of night to mix with or change to snow in the north. Overall
there were no big changes to the forecast philosophy this morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 79 43 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 77 42 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 83 45 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 75 37 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 77 40 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 78 48 60 35 / 0 0 0 0