Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Aviation...
convection has developed in the vicinity of ksps within the past
half hour. Hrrr suggests that this may dissipate quickly and will
look at the status of this when it the tafs are issued. Stratus
redevelopment looks less likely in the latest model runs and will
not include it in the 06z tafs due to relatively low
probability... but it is not out of the question... especially in
the southwest.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013/
Discussion...
unseasonably cool conditions are present this afternoon behind a
cold front due to widespread rainfall last night and persistent
stratus throughout most of the day. A few areas of showers are
trying to nudge into the NE forecast area around a mesoscale convective vortex...but any other moist
convection remains south of our forecast area across North Texas. Although skies
will initially begin to clear this evening...stratus will likely
return tonight. In addition...convection across West Texas may try
to make its way into our Texas zones late tonight. However...feel
confident that most of this should remain just south of our forecast area so
have isolated highest probability of precipitation to our southwestern borders. A surface high
under middle level northwest flow will move over the Midwest and NE OK
tomorrow keeping high temperatures below average. Probability of precipitation will return to the
forecast late tomorrow through middle day Wednesday as shortwave trough
moving out of The Rockies rounds the middle level ridge axis. Do not
expect a lot of precipitation with this feature...but think high chance probability of precipitation
appear reasonble for most locations just east of the ridge with
deeper moisture moving back into place.
Signficant probability of precipitation will come to an end after Wednesday...but did mention
some slight to low end chances for Thursday am as another middle level
shortwave trough traverses the northern zones. This will also be
true across the northwest by Friday as the ridge slides east allowing a few
more weak shortwave troughs to move over the Panhandle
region...and perhaps even as far south as central OK by Sat am.
Other than these low end probability of precipitation...the general trend will be warmer
temperatures Thursday-Sat as the subtropical ridge axis remains in place
from West Texas through at least SW OK.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 50 50
Hobart OK 68 88 68 90 / 10 20 30 30
Wichita Falls Texas 71 90 70 93 / 20 20 30 30
gage OK 64 85 65 87 / 20 20 40 40
Ponca City OK 67 86 68 84 / 10 20 40 40
Durant OK 70 88 70 89 / 10 20 40 40
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
