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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
851 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

have made some minor changes to the grids for tonight. Based on
latest couple of runs of the hrrr will keep lower end chance probability of precipitation
across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma this evening
and then a bit higher across southern OK into North Texas late
tonight as surface front works south toward the Red River.


Previous discussion... /issued 638 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014/

a cold front is slowly moving southward...and will result in a
northerly wind shift at all terminals by 12z Tuesday. In the wake of
this front...expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop...first from
kgag/kwwr to kpnc...then southward overnight. Sporadic rain showers may
linger in the vicinity of the front...but confidence is too low to
mention in tafs. More widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain may develop from 15z to
20z Tuesday...potentially affecting ksps...where prob30 will be
maintained. Low ceilings will be slow to erode...but should generally
clear by 18z to 20z most terminals with VFR and returning
southerly winds.

Previous discussion... /issued 315 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014/

a cold front that is now entering far northwest Oklahoma will
continue to advance southeast overnight. Models...satellite...and
radar suggest scattered showers/thunderstorms near the front...and
a few patches of rain elsewhere this afternoon into the evening
and overnight period.

Rain chances continue through much of the week as various weak
features move through the Southern Plains and the rather moist
atmosphere in place. A greater chance for rain will come this
weekend as another cold front arrives.

Moisture from Hurricane Odile may be pulled into the large-scale
circulation over Oklahoma and northwest Texas this weekend. If
this happens...the amount of rainfall that occurs will be
enhanced significantly.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 64 82 66 87 / 30 20 10 20
Hobart OK 65 85 67 89 / 20 20 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 68 86 69 89 / 30 40 10 20
gage OK 59 83 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 61 79 63 86 / 20 10 20 30
Durant OK 68 87 69 88 / 30 30 10 20


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...



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