Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
VFR conditions and breezy southerly winds will prevail through
Previous discussion... /issued 1100 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
area of showers that grazed some of the western North Texas counties
has moved out of the area or dissipated. Additional activity is
not expected this afternoon so have removed probability of precipitation. Made some minor
adjustments to sky cover and winds to show current trends. Also
raised highs a few degrees in some areas. Several locations across
the area are already in the 80s late this morning. Updates out
Previous discussion... /issued 616 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
Aviation...02/12z taf issuance...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered to broken middle
clouds will persist for most of the day across the region. South
winds will increase through the afternoon and early evening... with
gusts between 15 and 25kts. Winds will relax after sunset...
remaining out of the south through the end of the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 224 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
good morning... mostly quiet weather spread across the Southern
Plains... except for a decaying mesoscale convective system that continues to linger over
the Llano Estacado of the Texas South Plains. Only concern today is
the potential for a few widely scattered showers and isolated
thunder later this morning and into the afternoon across far southwestern OK
and western North Texas. In response to a surface trough building into the
panhandles through the day... warm air advection will increase across northern Texas/southwestern
OK ahead of the building surface pressure gradient. Most recent runs
of mesoscale guidance... hrrr/various wrfs... ttu/nmm/arw... and
the NAM... develop some light precipitation across northern Texas into far southwestern
OK. If any showers/storms develop... coverage will be small. Felt
confident in slight chance probability of precipitation through the day... given decent
isentropic response. Good 310 and 315k ascent will likely provide
enough middle/upper level support for showers/isolated thunder. No
severe weather is expected if any storms develop.
For the remainder of the week... the Stout Ridge will continue to
build over the central U.S. Into the weekend. This will give way to
a steady increase in temperatures each day... with highs well in the
80s to low 90s by Thursday/Friday across most of the Southern Plains. With the
ridge axis centered through TX/OK... mesoscale convective system development appears likely
each night across the northern plains... with each complex tracking east/southeast
off the central and northern High Plains of NE/KS... with a chance of
clipping portions of northern OK possibly Friday through sun. The most
recent runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have backed off on the southern extent
of precipitation into OK for Friday night and Sat night... but given the
setup... any subtle variation in the position of the ridge axis will
have an impact on shower/thunder chances along the OK/Kansas border...
and how far south any showers or storms track. With that said... the
majority of the region should be dry through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 67 86 67 87 / 10 0 10 0
Hobart OK 66 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 10 0
Ponca City OK 68 87 69 87 / 10 10 10 0
Durant OK 65 86 66 87 / 0 0 0 0