Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015
please see the 00z aviation discussion below.
expect southerly winds overnight to decrease to around 10 to 15
knots. Skies will clear tonight...but MVFR ceilings will develop over a
few terminals near or just after sunrise. These ceilings will only
last a few hours...however. Wind gusts will increase again around
14 to 15z from the south-southwest.
Previous discussion... /issued 240 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
main concern is the potential for heavy rain Monday through
Wednesday. A few isolated showers/storms may develop this
afternoon/tonight but overall most of the area should remain dry.
Rain chances will increase Monday and continue through at least
The greatest chance for rain across the area will be Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. Models show a cold front moving into northwest
parts of the forecast area Monday afternoon and continuing to move across the region
before stalling. Models also show several disturbances/shortwaves
moving across the region which along with any outflow boundaries
will aid in shower and thunderstorm development during this time.
Some strong to severe storms may be possible but the greatest threat
will be from heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding/river
flooding in some locations. Rainfall amounts of 4+ inches could be
possible in some areas. However... still some uncertainties as to
where the heaviest rain will be so will hold off on a Flash Flood
Watch for now but one could be needed... especially if the heaviest
rainfall looks to be over parts of central... south central... and
southeast OK where have already receive heavy rain over the past
couple of weeks.
Rain chances shift back towards the north Wednesday night into
Thursday before possibly ending late in the week into the weekend as
the upper ridge builds into the region. Models do differ as to the
strength... timing... and position of the upper high so some
uncertainty as to when rain chances end at least for parts of the forecast area
but for now will keep forecast dry after Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 73 91 70 79 / 10 20 60 70
Hobart OK 74 93 69 77 / 10 20 80 70
Wichita Falls Texas 75 95 73 84 / 10 10 50 70
gage OK 74 89 64 77 / 10 70 80 40
Ponca City OK 76 92 67 78 / 10 40 80 60
Durant OK 74 91 75 87 / 10 10 20 40