Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
934 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016
adjusted overnight lows...
scattered to broken middle-level stratus continues to stream
southeastward across north central and eastern Oklahoma this
evening. Observing trends... temperatures continue to slowly dip across
north central Oklahoma... with northeasterly surface winds. In
response to temperatures upstream... feel confident in bringing lows
overnight down 1 or 2 more degrees... even with the scattered/broken deck
of clouds. Could be fairly chilly across northern Oklahoma by
daybreak... with lows in the lower 20s. Elsewhere... made only
minor adjustments... with lows in the upper 20s across much of
Oklahoma to the lower 30s across texoma and northern Texas.
Previous discussion... /issued 536 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
VFR conditions are forecast to continue.
There is a chance for IFR or lower conditions near kwwr and kgag
08-17z...but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
There is an outside chance for MVFR ceilings near ksps...klaw...
kokc...and koun after 15z...but did not mention due to low
confidence of occurrence.
Surface winds will shift from to the south or southeast at all
sites by 16z.
Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016/
the main concerns for this forecast as a chance for precipitation
Sunday into Monday morning and elevated fire weather concerns next
Dry and seasonably cool weather will continue into the weekend
before a series of shortwaves make their way over the area. The
first of these will come through Sunday morning...bringing a chance
for precipitation across southeast Oklahoma Sunday through Monday
morning. Models are fairly consistent here.
Starting Tuesday...MOS guidance starts to show some signal of low relative humidity
values across western Oklahoma and western North Texas. During this
time...the ridge builds back in allowing temperatures to quickly
rise...reaching into well above normal by Thursday. Given the poor
performance of models on these warm and dry days over recent
weeks...nudged temperatures a bit above MOS guidance and nudged
dewpoints down toward MOS guidance. Winds should remain fairly light
Tuesday and Wednesday...but Thursday may see some breezier
conditions that could result in some elevated fire weather concerns.
Beyond Thursday...models show a continuing progressive pattern with
another shortwave moving through Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 28 53 42 59 / 0 0 10 20
Hobart OK 30 55 44 63 / 0 0 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 33 61 48 69 / 0 0 10 10
gage OK 25 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 21 45 35 54 / 0 0 10 10
Durant OK 36 55 44 59 / 0 0 10 30