Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
416 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
issuance of Winter Storm Watch.
we will go ahead and issue a Winter Storm Watch for western and
northern Oklahoma...effective Thursday night through Saturday
morning. Primary impact will be accumulating ice. Current
forecasts have ice potential approaching one-half inch across
west-central Oklahoma with lesser amounts across other portions of
the watch area.
Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015/
stratus has expanded northward into central OK this afternoon. The
nam12 has a good handle on this moisture and stratus coverage
will likely expand over most of the region by early tomorrow
morning. In addition, isentropic ascent will lead to some drizzle
developing late tonight mainly along/east of i35. Patchy fog will
also be possible west of i35 along the stratus edge, but wind
speeds should keep visbys from dropping too much. The stratus
will linger over most of OK through tomorrow ahead of the
approaching cold front, with stratus/drizzle developing again, and
spread over the entire region by Thanksgiving morning. Lowered
maxts for tomorrow a bit based on the previous.
The main forecast concern will be the potential for heavy rain and
icing Thu-Sat. Models have slowed their progression of the cold front
a bit during the day Thu, with it now only nearing the i44 by Friday
00z. After sunset, however, the front should quickly dive
southward. Heavy rainfall will be possible with the front
especially along and south of the i44 corridor Thursday evening
through Friday morning. Elevated instability will also result in a
few thunderstorms developing, especially over central OK. For
now, we will not issue any flood headlines but localized flash
flooding and river flooding will be possible through this weekend.
Freezing rain, and now at least some sleet, appears very likely
beginning early Friday morning across northwestern and western
OK. The models may initially be slower with the front, but are
deeper and colder with the airmass. Freezing rain chances will
continue through Saturday along and west of the i44 corridor. The
greatest potential for significant icing appears to be across
western OK right now. Will pass all of this on to the swing shift
for potential headlines.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 53 64 59 62 / 20 20 30 100
Hobart OK 51 65 60 61 / 10 10 40 90
Wichita Falls Texas 54 70 61 66 / 10 20 30 80
gage OK 43 67 53 57 / 0 0 60 90
Ponca City OK 54 65 59 61 / 20 20 40 100
Durant OK 54 64 60 67 / 30 30 20 50
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for okz004>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.