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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
320 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014

Discussion...
primary forecast challenge is placed on temperatures over the next
several days.

Currently... some light/narrow bands of sprinkles/drizzle continue
to stream S/SW from NE into central OK this afternoon. This activity is
being supported by a weak h850 front/baroclinic zone on the NE side
of the southeastward exiting short wave. Expect this activity to continue
into the early evening... so commuters across the okc metropolitan should
not be surprised to see a few drops or patchy drizzle through 7 PM
CDT. Below average

For tonight... below average temperatures will continue... with lows
in the 60s across the region. Record lows for okc and Special Weather Statement... are 53
and 59 respectively... so do not expect any broken records
overnight. For Friday... into the weekend... the Middle-Range guidance is
in generally agreement... the western h500 ridge will continue to build
across the intermountain west... keeping the plains sandwiched
between it and the elongated/positively tilted trough extending from
the Great Lakes through the lower MS valley. Temperatures will
slowly rebound as the ridge nudges ever slowly eastward... with
highs in the 80s and lower 90s by Sunday.

Dry conditions are anticipated into early next week... however...
will need to keep an eye up wind... as a weak shortwave may ridge
southward into the plains/Ozarks oun Sunday... which could provide enough
support for some scattered showers across eastern OK. Will keep the
forecast dry for the moment... given low confidence in this
solution. A psuedo-zonal flow pattern tries to take shape by
midweek... before long-range guidance... GFS/ECMWF... force another
front southward across the Central Plains into Thursday... which could be
our next chance for precipitation.

Jtk

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 63 85 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 62 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 65 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 60 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 61 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 64 83 65 88 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

03/04

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