Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
please see the 18z aviation discussion below.
VFR will apply through the forecast period. A few middle to upper
clouds...and an isolated shower or two...remain present S and east
of oun...but these will continue to dissipate through the
afternoon. South-southwest winds around 15 knots with slightly stronger gusts can
be expected at most terminals.
Previous discussion... /issued 614 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
12z tafs... VFR conditions expected throughout the taf period with
middle and high clouds. Rain showers are expected to remain south and
east of the taf sites today.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
some sprinkles/showers... currently in North Texas... could move
north into parts of Oklahoma this morning. Otherwise... upper high
pressure center will build west over the next few days... although
models disagree how far west. This high pressure along with an upper
trough in the western U.S. Will lead to southwest flow over or just
west of the forecast area. Depending on where this sets up... there could be a
chance for showers/storms in northwest/western parts of the County Warning Area.
However... right now expect rain to remain west and northwest of the
forecast area until the weekend.
Most locations will likely experience hot temperatures and breezy
south to southwesterly winds over at least the next several days as
the pressure gradient tightens.
Models show the high pressure center shifting east over the weekend
which could lead to a better chance of southwest flow over at least
part of the area. With the southwest flow aloft and a possible
frontal boundary in or near the forecast area... there will be more of an
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across at least northwest
parts of the area late this weekend into early next week. Models
then show a trough moving into the central U.S. With a front moving
into the area towards the middle of next week which will continue a
chance for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the forecast area.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 74 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 75 98 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 76 98 76 99 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0