Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
have high confidence in the tafs. VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours.
Gusty north winds will subside by 01z...then switch to the
south/southwest at all sites by 14z. Gusty south/southwest winds
will develop over western Oklahoma after 15z...then across the
entire area by 22z.
Previous discussion... /issued 240 PM CDT sun Mar 16 2014/
skies will continue to clear through the remainder of the
afternoon...with much lighter winds by late afternoon/early
evening. By early Monday morning...the coldest temperatures will
likely be across south central and southeast Oklahoma...where
a surface ridge axis will be located. Southwest winds will return
to western Oklahoma overnight.
South to southwest winds will increase and will be rather gusty
across western Oklahoma Monday afternoon. This is in response to
deepening low pressure in eastern Colorado and an approaching
wave. Humidity levels will approach or drop below 20 percent
across far western Oklahoma/western North Texas...so a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for that area.
A cold front will push across the forecast area on Tuesday which will bring
a return to gusty northerly winds. Better precipitation chances with the
front & trough should be north and east of our area. The airmass
behind this front will not be as cold as today's.
Wednesday should bring the best combination of sun with little
wind this week...as breezy southwest winds will return on
Thursday. This will also increase the fire danger some.
Another front...with a better chance for cold air...will arrive
around Friday. Moisture return ahead of the front may result
in showers and perhaps storms in south central and southeast
Oklahoma late Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 28 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 26 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 30 65 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 25 72 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 28 59 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for okz004-009-010-014>016-
Texas...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for txz083>085-087-088.