Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
12z tafs... showers/storms will be possible in parts of northern
OK this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers/storms
will be possible this afternoon and tonight across parts of the
area. Chances are too low in some areas or at times for a mention
in tafs. Gusty variable winds will be possible near the storms.
Mostly MVFR and VFR ceilings are expected through the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015/
scattered showers/storms are beginning to develop southwest from a
cluster of storms in S Kansas across the panhandles towards a larger
area of storms in eastern nm early this morning. This activity could
eventually move/develop into portions of the forecast area this morning.
Additional isolated to scattered storms will be possible this
afternoon with the frontal boundary and any lingering outflow
boundaries across the forecast area being foci. The best chance may actually be
in central and/or southern sections of the forecast area where less cloud cover
is expected so more surface heating would likely occur.
Models still show the center of the upper high slowly moving west
with northwest flow possibly developing over portions of the forecast area and middle-
level disturbances moving through the flow. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the forecast area at least
through the weekend and possibly into early next week. The GFS shows
the upper high trying to build back to the east into the region the
middle of next week although the high pressure center remains to the
west and the ridge is not as strong as has the past week. Meanwhile
the European model (ecmwf) holds the center of the high further west/southwest and
maintains somewhat of a northwest flow over the region through next week.
If the GFS is right the chances for rain would be lesser than the
European model (ecmwf) through next week but neither is zero for any long period of
time as disturbances continue to move through the flow.
Hot and humid conditions will occur again today across parts of the
forecast area. Triple digit heat indices will be likely in southern Oklahoma
and western North Texas. A few places in southeast parts of the forecast area could
reach 105 heat index values but this is a bit uncertain so will
leave for the day shift to keep and eye on and not issue a heat
advisory at this time. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler /80s to low
90s/ through the weekend before warming back into the middle and upper
90s next week. This will likely lead to a return of the triple digit
heat indices for at least parts of the forecast area next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 92 72 87 71 / 30 30 30 10
Hobart OK 95 72 90 71 / 30 30 30 30
Wichita Falls Texas 99 76 95 73 / 20 20 30 20
gage OK 88 68 87 67 / 40 30 30 20
Ponca City OK 89 69 89 70 / 60 20 20 10
Durant OK 99 75 93 73 / 20 30 30 10