Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 am CST Friday Dec 6 2013
winter storm today remains the biggest concern.
Changed the Ice Storm Warning to a Winter Storm Warning across
parts of southern Oklahoma and Clay County Texas as sleet is the
predominant precipitation type right now which will turn to snow
later this morning. Freezing rain is no longer expected as the
is cold enough to support solid precipitation types...even in far
Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for parts of northwest
Oklahoma where any snow has ended and is not longer expected.
Also...made the rest of the advisory end at noon instead of 6 PM
as any snow should be out advisory area by noon.
The Winter Storm Warning remains in good shape...though will be
cancelled west to east as precipitation ends today. Heaviest
storm snowfall totals of 3 to 5 inches has been shifted south a
bit and will most likely end up near an Altus to Lawton to
Seminole line. So far...Norman has received 1.5 to 2 inches and
Lawton has received around 4 inches. Think snow will end near
Lawton...Wichita Falls...and Oklahoma City between 8 and 10 am
this morning...and be east of Atoka and Durant by 2 PM this
afternoon. Travel remains dangerous today...especially this
As of 350 am this morning...the snow/sleet line was near a
Wichita Falls to Holdenville line based on reports from
observers...mping...and dual polarization correlation coefficient
data. This line will continue to push south this morning and be
south of a Marietta and Durant by 10 am...allowing a transition
to all snow. Additional snowfall of 1 to 3 inches seems likely
south of Clinton to Perry line.
Tonight will be clear and very cold. Think records will be broken
at Oklahoma City...6 degrees last set in 1950...and Wichita
Falls...9 degrees set in 1950. A few locations with the deepest
snowpack may fall below zero.
A Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed tonight into Saturday
morning due to the bitter cold and north winds around 10 miles per hour to
yield wind chill values -5 to -15. Dress warmly and use caution if
Saturday into Saturday night...clouds will increase southwest to
northeast. Kept low chances for a light wintry mix...mainly a
light snow...light sleet...and light freezing drizzle mix during
the afternoon and nighttime hours across the area. Forecast
soundings depicted that any moisture would be rather shallow. Any
precipitation would be very light with only a dusting or glaze of
snow/ice expected. However with temperatures well below
freezing...any precipitation would stick to roads and cause travel
problems. Will closely monitor.
Another shot of Arctic air moves in Sunday night with temperatures
staying well below average through at least midweek. Temperatures
may return to near average by the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 22 3 21 16 / 90 0 10 40
Hobart OK 22 2 17 11 / 50 0 20 20
Wichita Falls Texas 25 6 19 13 / 70 0 20 20
gage OK 24 1 19 9 / 10 0 10 30
Ponca City OK 24 3 24 17 / 40 0 0 50
Durant OK 25 6 21 16 / 100 0 20 40
OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for okz016>020-
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for okz006>008-
Texas...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for txz083>090.