Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2016
gusty southeast winds will prevail through the evening
with a few high clouds. Moisture return late this evening
and overnight will result in at least MVFR ceilings...especially
after 6z. A little unsure how far low ceilings will extend in
west central and northwest Oklahoma. A front will move across
all taf sites by 18z Sunday with north to northwest winds behind
the front. IFR ceilings may develop just ahead and shortly
behind the frontal passage. Will also mention the potential for
fog with better chances in and around okc/oun.
Previous discussion... /issued 1050 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016/
circulation from cold high pressure over Iowa will keep north
central and central Oklahoma the coolest this afternoon.
Surface winds have already shifted to a east and southeast
direction this morning...and should keep a southeast component
during the afternoon. The hrrr and rap appear a little warm with
highs this afternoon (slightly veered flow)...but have trended a
little warmer in some areas.
Previous discussion... /issued 604 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016/
east winds will turn south today and increase ahead of a surface
trough. MVFR ceilings are expected to move northward tonight from
Texas where lower-level moisture is higher.
Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016/
slightly cooler weather is expected today in the wake of the
airmass that is drifting off to the northeast of Oklahoma.
However, the Sunday and next week will see increasing warming to
the Point of hot by the later part of the week. Before that, rain
chances cross through eastern and southeastern Oklahoma Sunday and
early Monday when several surface troughs and weak upper waves
pass by. Beyond then, no precipitation is expected through next
week. The main weather impact will likely be increased fire
weather potential, especially Thursday when gusty southwest winds
and temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected. A weak front in
the weekend will bring lower, but still seasonably high
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 53 43 62 38 / 0 10 10 10
Hobart OK 55 44 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 62 48 68 40 / 0 0 0 10
gage OK 55 34 60 29 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 45 34 58 33 / 0 10 10 0
Durant OK 56 46 62 44 / 0 10 20 30