Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015
aviation discussion for the 12z tafs is below.
overall...think VFR conditions will prevail.
A cold front will be south of all sites including ksps by 15z...
allowing for north to northeast winds. Gusts over 20 knots are
possible at most sites through 24z.
Isolated-scattered -shra/-tsra will affect parts of the area through 18z.
Kept -shra/-tsra/vcsh mention at most locations. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions may occur with -shra/-tsra...but conditions should
mainly remain VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015/
rain chances today is the main concern...then possible record heat
and wildfire concerns on Sunday.
In regards to rain chances today...generally preferred the lower
side of model guidance chances...generally 20 to 30
percent...similar to the previous forecast. Simply think the lack
of signficant low level convergence...weak instability...and weak
middle/upper forcing away from a middle/upper trough over the Midwest
and a middle/upper low to our southeast...should keep any shower and
thunderstorm development isolated to scattered at best. Any
rainfall will remain light and mainly under 0.25 inch. There will
be many more dry hours than wet ones in locations that receive
rainfall...though many locations will not get wet today.
This morning...a weak cold front will continue to push south and
through the area...arriving in North Texas in the 6 to 10 am time
frame. Cannot completely rule out some patchy fog development
south of the front...mainly east of I-35 and south of I-40...but
did not mention as cloud cover may hamper fog formation. Latest
hrrr runs suggested that any shower and storm development will be
behind the front. No strong or storms are expected.
This afternoon...drier air moving into the area will allow for
decreasing clouds and decreasing rain chances. Used a blend of
guidance highs are about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday...close
to average for this time of year.
Tonight...mostly clear...cool...and calm weather will prevail.
Several rural locations will fall into the 40s.
Saturday...mostly sunny and warmer weather can be expected.
Sunday will be an unseasonably hot day...possibly near record
highs. South to southwest winds will be on the increase as well.
Sunday night into Monday...a dry cold front will move through the
area...bringing gusty north winds...but not significantly cooler
Monday night through Thursday...dry weather and above average
temperatures will likely continue. Temperatures may flirt near
record levels again by the middle of the week.
fire weather conditions may begin to be elevated over far western
Oklahoma on Saturday as winds increase...then across the entire
area on Sunday due to hot...dry...and breezy conditions. A cold
front will bring a wind shift to the north late Sunday night into
Monday morning...but dry and breezy conditions will continue.
record highs may be in jeopardy on Sunday October 11. Here are the
Oklahoma City...94 set in 1979
Wichita Falls...97 set in 1979
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 74 52 81 61 / 30 0 0 0
Hobart OK 75 52 84 61 / 30 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 79 53 84 62 / 20 10 0 0
gage OK 73 53 84 59 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 74 47 80 57 / 30 0 0 0
Durant OK 83 53 83 58 / 20 10 0 0