Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1213 am CDT Wednesday Jul 8 2015
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will occur at most sites through
15z. Think conditions will stay just above Airport minimums.
After 15z...improving conditions will occur. Not sure how quickly
conditions will occur though. Confidence is high that all sites
will be at least MVFR by 00z.
-Ra will generally stay just east of ksps-kokc-kpnc. Patches of
-dz may occur through 15z. Additional rain showers/thunderstorms and rain may be near kwwr
and kgag after 00z...but did not mention due to low confidence of
Previous discussion... /issued 950 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/
evening update including changes to probability of precipitation/Flash Flood Watch below.
based on recent model performance and trend of latest high-res
solutions...we will be trimming western portions of Flash Flood
Watch. Would like to go farther east but will leave I-44 corridor
in the watch for weather forecast office to weather forecast office coordination purposes. Vorticity
center between Lawton and okc will continue to progress northeast
tonight and accelerate. Most if not all of heavy /flash flooding
type/ rains will expected to be well south and east of this
center closer to lower level frontal boundary. Current trend of
convective development near Mineral Wells to near Ardmore/Davis to
Seminole will likely be corridor of heaviest rains then spread
slowly east from there. Near record level precipitation-water values and
some uncertainty will justify leaving the watch a little larger
than current trends would suggest.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for okz019-020-025>032-
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for txz086-089-090.