Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
Aviation...18z taf issuance...
primary aviation concern revolves around MVFR ceilings and -tsra
chances this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma. The cold front will
continue to advance S/southeast across central/eastern Oklahoma this
afternoon... with increasing -tsra chances along this boundary. Most taf
sites should remain west of development... however... airfields
east of I-35 and south of I-40 may be impacted. Currently...
isolated showers/thunder will impact kpnc over the next several
hours. Behind the front... north/northwest winds will remain gusty... 25 to
30 miles per hour. Ceilings should improve behind the front and overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 1043 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014/
scattered showers/thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold
front this morning. At 1030 am...the front extended from near
Ponca City to Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls. It is running a
couple of hours ahead of the previous forecast schedule...so we
have updated the forecast to account for the faster movement.
Light rain in northwest Oklahoma will probably spread east with
time...but only light amounts of rainfall are expected with that
Previous discussion... /issued 443 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014/
first round of convection is moving through the southeastern
portion of the area right now. Expect to see additional
redevelopment later today... especially in the afternoon as the
front moves through. A line of thunderstorms will likely develop
and move across the eastern half of the area this afternoon with
storms moving out of the area late this afternoon or early
evening. Instability will be sufficient that some severe storms
will be possible. The front has moved into northwestern Oklahoma
this morning and will move through the area today with cooler
temperatures behind the front today and tomorrow. Temperatures
will become quite warm again early next week. There is some signal
for precipitation next Monday and/or Tuesday as another front may
move through the area... although have not added probability of precipitation yet.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 80 52 71 45 / 40 10 0 0
Hobart OK 80 52 73 46 / 20 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 82 55 79 49 / 20 0 0 0
gage OK 71 43 69 41 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 80 50 67 40 / 50 10 0 0
Durant OK 92 57 78 47 / 80 30 0 0