Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Update...
storms will continue to develop and move across parts of north
central/central OK the rest of this evening. Some of the storms
could still become severe. Updated probability of precipitation/weather grids to better show
thoughts on area of storms. Will send updates shortly.
Maxwell
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 625 PM CDT sun may 19 2013/
Aviation... thunderstorms which develop over central OK have now moved east of
taf sites. Thunderstorms kpnc may still have a threat for a couple of hours
this evening with storms developing vicinity of the front. Front
expected to stall later tonight in northern and western OK. Thunderstorm activity
expected to diminish later tonight with VFR conditions expected
through the remainder of the night and into Monday. More
thunderstorm development Monday afternoon in the vicinity of the
surface boundaries.
Previous discussion... /issued 220 PM CDT sun may 19 2013/
Discussion...
another busy afternoon and evening expected across parts of Oklahoma
and western North Texas with strong to severe storms. The dryline
continue to work toward central Oklahoma and most short range models
show development mainly near and north of the Oklahoma City metropolitan
this afternoon. 18z sounding continue to show significant capping inversion
in place... which is expected to keep storm development isolated.
However with the amount of instability present and favorable wind
fields any storms that do develop will likely become severe.
Storms should move north and east of the area by late evening with
much of the overnight relatively quiet.
Latest model runs have shown a trend of being a bit more
aggressive with southward push of surface front into or south of the
I-40 corridor to near I-44 by Monday afternoon. The models also show
the dryine actually retreating back to the west. This will leave
portions of central and southern Oklahoma in the warm sector for
tomorrow with another potential day with severe storms. Front will
then try to make its way south of the Red River bringing a bit
quieter weather to Oklahoma.
Some low chances for shower/thunderstorm activity remain in the forecast
through much of the upcoming week... however severe weather after
Monday will remain rather low. And perhaps some slightly cooler
temperatures can be expected... especially across far southwest Oklahoma
and western North Texas.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 66 87 63 81 / 50 40 60 30
Hobart OK 63 92 60 83 / 10 20 30 20
Wichita Falls Texas 69 97 66 85 / 20 40 40 20
gage OK 53 82 53 80 / 20 20 20 10
Ponca City OK 64 83 60 78 / 60 40 60 20
Durant OK 71 88 69 83 / 30 50 60 50
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
25/02
