Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
have moderate confidence in the tafs.
Through 09z...think all locations will bounce between VFR/MVFR
with -sn flurries.
After 09z...another batch of heavier -sn with IFR or lower
conditions will move into and through the area. Kokc will be
affected mainly 12-21z and klaw will be affected 10-19z. Ksps
may be affected 10-17z as well.
After 17z...fzdz may develop and spread northward...affecting
mainly locations south of kcsm-kokc. IFR or lower conditions will
likely continue during this time frame as well.
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015/
the first round of this multi-part weather event is starting to
wind down. Through midnight...significant snowfall should be
restricted to the southern third or so of Oklahoma...and western
North Texas. Things begin to turn very complicated tomorrow...as
higher temperatures start to advance north. This will...over the
course of the weekend...turn the snow to sleet...freezing
rain...and then rain...with various combinations thereof during
the transition period.
The previously-issued advisories appear to make sense for the
rest of today/this evening. However...the evening shift will need
to take another look at snow/ice accumulation potential
overnight...especially over southern Oklahoma and western North
Texas. This may require an extension of our current advisory for
The main brunt of the next upper-level wave should affect the
northern two rows of counties in Oklahoma tomorrow. Snowfall
should be sufficient to warrant the Winter Weather Advisory that
will be new with this forecast update.
Freezing rain will probably require additional advisories over the
weekend...but uncertainty in timing and location preclude issuing
By Tuesday...most of the winter weather will temporarily make way
for a springlike day...complete with a chance of thunderstorms
over the southeastern half or so of Oklahoma. At this
time...severe weather appears to be unlikely.
In keeping with the theme of wild extremes of weather...another
strong cold front is scheduled to arrive Tuesday afternoon in
northwest Oklahoma...and late Tuesday evening in the southeast.
Some light snow or other freezing/frozen precipitation will be
possible with this system...but it does not look like a
significant event. And...by the end of the week...temperatures
should rebound to a few degrees below the seasonal average.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz004-
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Saturday for
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for okz037-
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz083.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for