Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
a complex of showers and storms continues to move eastward across
Oklahoma...and will continue to affect several taf sites through
middle to late morning. Winds in the wake of this system are
somewhat variable...but should return to southerly by afternoon.
Except for brief periods of MVFR under the heavier showers...VFR
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 605 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/
increased rain chances this morning across central and northern
band of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to move east
and generally weaken. It will be a wet commute this morning near
Oklahoma City...Enid...and Pauls Valley. Rain chances were
Products have been updated.
Previous discussion... /issued 332 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/
the main concerns this forecast will be potential for strong to
severe storms this evening and overnight...and oppressive heat
late this week through next week.
This morning...two areas of showers and storms are moving east
southeastward...one over western Oklahoma...and one over the
central Texas Panhandle. These two complexes will slowly move
eastward through the day...with a general weakening trend. Expect
the primary concerns with this activity to be locally heavy
rainfall and flooding...along with occasional lightning. With
widespread cloud cover...expect another day of below climatology temperatures
for the northern half of Oklahoma...with warmer conditions
along/south of the Red River.
Late this afternoon...storms are expected to develop across
western Kansas...merging into a thunderstorm complex. Northwest
flow will favor a turn to the south and east...possibly bringing
this storm complex into parts of northern Oklahoma overnight.
Strong deep layer shear will support storm organization. Though
instability will remain modest for widespread severe
weather...some threat of damaging winds and marginally severe hail
will accompany these storms...along with heavy rainfall.
Middle level ridging and height rises will ensue across the Southern
Plains Wednesday into Thursday...resulting in drier and much
hotter conditions as we close out the week. Afternoon temperatures
look to reach triple digits over much of the area from Thursday
through at least the first half of next week. At this time...the
days of most concern regarding life threatening heat will be
Wednesday through Friday. During this time...afternoon humidities
combined with hot temperatures will make for widespread heat
indices in excess of 105 degrees...with some parts of central and
southern Oklahoma boasting 110 degree heat plus heat indices
Thursday afternoon. Heat advisories and/or excessive heat warnings
will likely be needed in future forecasts.
From the weekend into next week...dominant ridging will
prevail...with hot and dry conditions each day.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 90 72 98 76 / 100 20 10 10
Hobart OK 95 73 102 76 / 40 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 96 76 104 80 / 30 0 0 0
gage OK 93 69 100 72 / 50 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 85 72 93 74 / 70 50 20 20
Durant OK 97 76 99 79 / 10 0 10 10