Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

29/00z tafs.


primarily VFR conditions with winds shifting from southerly to
strong northerly. Could see MVFR visibility and ceilings from kpnc down
through kokc/koun from around 09-12z until frontal passage with moisture
increase. Ceilings will be mentioned at kpnc with light fog kokc/koun.
Strong northerly winds expected after frontal passage with VFR conditions.


Previous discussion... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

several fronts this week will bring wind shifts and chances for
rain, but the warm airmasses will stay in Oklahoma until Thursday.
The first front tomorrow will bring gusty northwest winds and
increased fire danger to western Oklahoma. Relative humidity may
just lower to 20 percent, so a Fire Weather Watch is effective
there tomorrow afternoon. This front is expected to stall tomorrow
night near or south of the Red River. This will be the weather
maker Monday and Tuesday. On Monday weak northwest flow aloft is
expected to impinge on weak southerly winds at the surface for
modest vertical shear. Thunderstorms are possible along and north
of the front in southeast Oklahoma later Monday. A better chance
for thunderstorms comes Tuesday when slightly stronger middle-level
flow is across the area and the front has moved north into more of
Oklahoma. Southern and central Oklahoma have the best chance for
rain. The next front comes Thursday followed by a second, stronger
one Friday. The one on Friday finally brings cooler, more
seasonable weather. A chance for thunderstorms will come with this
front especially in south central and southeast Oklahoma. Middle-
level flow and vertical shear is stronger this day which may lead
to stronger thunderstorms.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 53 77 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 50 78 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 54 83 54 74 / 0 0 0 10
gage OK 48 76 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 48 76 42 72 / 0 10 0 0
Durant OK 52 78 56 70 / 0 0 20 10


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for okz004-005-009-010-014-015-021-033-034-036.

Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for txz083.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations