Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
930 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
the overall forecast has not changed with a cold front expected to
move into the area later tonight with a chance for showers/storms.
The best chance overnight will be in northern Oklahoma. Despite
the overall forecast remaining the same... did make some changes
to the timing of higher probability of precipitation and front... and lowered morning lows
a few degrees in some areas. All updates will be out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 615 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/
please see the 00z aviation discussion below.
showers and isolated storms are still expected to develop across
northern OK near sunrise as a cold front moves into the state.
Confidence is fairly low with regards to precipitation coverage so
will only include prob30 groups for pnc, wwr/gag, and csm for the
moment. Winds will shift from the north near and after sunrise
with some gusts near 25 knots through the early afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 227 PM CDT Thursday Oct 8 2015/
the main forecast concern is tonight's approaching cold front and
any associated convection. The front is expected to enter northern
Oklahoma after midnight tonight...followed by some scattered
elevated showers and storms. Convection will continue into the
early morning before dissipating as the front continues to surge
southward. Most of the forecast area has a chance to see some
rain...but confidence decreases the farther south one GOES. Severe
weather is not expected.
After a slightly cooler day tomorrow...temperatures race right
back up into the 80s and lower 90s through the
weekend...approaching record values on Sunday as the ridge
attempts to build back in. Another cold front on Monday will bring
gusty winds and a temporary cool off...but for the most
part...next week looks to continue our trend of unseasonably warm
temperatures. With low moisture values...early next week may see
some elevated fire danger as well.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 60 75 54 81 / 20 30 0 0
Hobart OK 60 77 55 84 / 20 20 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 63 83 56 84 / 10 20 0 0
gage OK 54 73 54 83 / 40 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 57 74 49 80 / 50 30 0 0
Durant OK 64 84 56 83 / 10 20 0 0