Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
426 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015
severe potential today is the main concern. An active weather
pattern with rounds of storms will continue today as well as
Tuesday through Friday.
This morning...isolated to scattered storms will occur across
mainly northern Oklahoma closer to the middle/upper low. Doubt these
will be severe due to rather weak instability...generally around
500 j/kg. However...a few may be strong with hail up to the size
This afternoon...additional isolated to numerous storms will form
across the area. Latest Storm Prediction Center day 1 outlook has pushed the slight
risk westward which seems reasonable to the a slower departure of
the nearby middle/upper low. The highest storm coverage will be over
northern Oklahoma where 0-6 km shear will be weakest while lower
to no storm coverage will occur over southern Oklahoma and North
Texas where 0-6 km shear will be much higher. Storm starting and
ending times will be several hours earlier today compared to
In regards to severe potential this afternoon...some severe
storms with large hail will be the main hazard. In northern
Oklahoma where storm coverage will be greatest...the largest hail
sizes will be smaller compared to any storm that forms over
southern Oklahoma. Doubt severe reports will be as significant or
widespread compared to yesterday due to weaker instability...but
will closely monitor. Damaging winds may occur as well with any
storm over southern Oklahoma where middle level winds will be much
stronger. Tornado potential appears to be limited due to weak low
level shear. Heavy rainfall potential seems to be low as
well...though slow storm movement in northern Oklahoma may allow
for rainfall amounts up to 1 inch.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop behind a cold front this
afternoon into tonight. Think winds will stay just below Wind Advisory
criteria with most gusts under 40 miles per hour. The strongest winds will be
in northwest Oklahoma 1 to 8 PM.
Tonight...storms should quickly end or move into eastern Oklahoma
by 7 PM. Clearing conditions will occur. Northwest winds will
stay up through the night...mainly in the 10 to 15 miles per hour range.
Drier and cooler conditions will move into the area.
Monday...mostly sunny and less humid conditions are forecast with
temperatures near or just slightly below average.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...another round of severe storms may
result...mainly after 4 PM across western Oklahoma and western
North Texas. Appears the main hazard would be large hail.
Confidence of severe storms remains fairly low at this time.
Wednesday through Saturday...additional rounds of storms will
occur through at least Friday. Some severe storms will be
possible. Locally heavy rainfall may occur as well.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 45 69 49 / 40 10 0 30
Hobart OK 71 43 70 47 / 20 10 0 20
Wichita Falls Texas 76 46 73 49 / 10 10 0 10
gage OK 64 38 68 48 / 30 0 10 40
Ponca City OK 68 42 67 47 / 80 10 0 20
Durant OK 76 50 73 48 / 20 10 0 10