Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
at 23z...a cold front and associated thunderstorms and rain extended from between
kpnc and kict to kwwr. This line of thunderstorms and rain will advance southeast this
evening...bringing 2-4 hours of thunderstorms and rain to most taf sites by 10z
tonight. After the initial thunderstorms and rain...widespread rain showers will fill in
near/north of the front. The front is expected to stall roughly from
klts-kchk-koun-ksnl. The rain tomorrow will affect most of OK and
North Texas. A few thunderstorms and rain will also occur...but are expected to be too
few/far between to warrant mention in the tafs. By
afternoon...+shra will likely cover much of the area from ksps to
kokc...bringing ceilings down to roughly 500-800 feet. Outside this
area...shra/tsra should be less intense...and perhaps less
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/
a cold front will move southeast into central Oklahoma
tonight...then stall somewhere across Oklahoma and perhaps western
North Texas. Showers and storms will occur along the front this
evening...probably producing outflow that will move out ahead of
the convection. A very moist atmosphere will favor heavy
rainfall...and possibly flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is
already in effect...and no changes will be made to it this
An upper-level wave will move east across the region
tomorrow...which will support widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms as the front remains across the southern part of our
forecast area...and warm moist air is forced north over the
cooler air near the surface.
Rain chances will generally diminish Wednesday as the weather
systems weaken over US...and will disappear entirely by the
weekend with upper-level ridging taking over. As is usual...this
will bring hot weather back to North Texas and Oklahoma.
And...with the extremely wet ground...humidities will be rather
high. On the other hand...this will limit the amount of daytime
heating that can occur.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 70 78 63 80 / 60 80 80 50
Hobart OK 68 75 62 84 / 80 90 70 30
Wichita Falls Texas 75 83 64 85 / 50 80 80 60
gage OK 61 72 59 81 / 90 70 20 20
Ponca City OK 64 76 63 78 / 90 70 70 40
Durant OK 74 87 69 85 / 20 40 50 50
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for okz005>042-
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for txz083>090.