Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
meteorologically... VFR conditions will persist. Although as
mentioned this morning... isolated areas could see a reduction in
visibility due to smoke if wildfires break out nearby. The
probability of this affecting any of the individual airports is
definitely low enough to not include in tafs... but something for
pilots to be aware of. A wind shift will move through the area
this evening and overnight with generally southwest winds south of
the front and north/northwest winds north of the front.
Previous discussion... /issued 524 am CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016/
the 12z aviation discussion follows....
surface low pressure over the Dakotas early this morning will
strengthen and move southeast today. This will generate moderate
SW winds across OK and North Texas through most of the day today. As the
low moves across OK and North Texas tonight...winds will become
light...then shift to north and increase to around 10 knots. Dry air will
result in generally clear skies. There is a possibility of
visibility restrictions due to smoke if wildfires occur.
Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016/
northwest flow aloft will be the dominant feature of our weather
through the middle of next week. This is generally a dry
pattern...and in fact...not much precipitation is expected. In
addition...fire weather concerns are highlighted in the forecast
Surface low pressure is forecast to strengthen today over the
Central Plains. This will create a tighter pressure gradient
across Oklahoma and North Texas...and generate dry and warm
downslope winds from the southwest. This setup...plus an
abundance of dry vegetation...will lead to conditions that will be
highly supportive of wildfires. As a result...this forecast
issuance will upgrade almost all of our former Fire Weather Watch
to a red flag warning for much of today.
The surface low is forecast to translate quickly to the
south...and will be over Oklahoma late tonight. This will bring a
quick end to the southwest winds...and cooler weather will arrive
for tomorrow. An Arctic airmass will surge south on Friday into
the central states...and its cold front will reach Oklahoma and
North Texas on Friday evening. This airmass is currently expected
to remain mostly to our east...and the cool-down here should be
brief and minor.
As moisture advances north on Sunday and Sunday night...a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible...especially over
south-central and southeast Oklahoma. Instability will be very
limited...so severe weather is not expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 36 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 76 37 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 78 40 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 76 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 72 30 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 69 42 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
OK...red flag warning until 7 PM CST this evening for okz014>031-
Texas...red flag warning until 7 PM CST this evening for txz083>090.