Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
1129 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
there is a slight chance of sub-VFR ceilings at kpnc briefly in the
morning... but this chance is not high enough to mention in the
tafs. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected. Winds will remain
gusty at most taf sites through the forecast period with winds
generally from the south/southwest.
Previous discussion... /issued 1017 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
the pressure gradient between low pressure centered over Montana...and
high pressure centered over Tennessee...will result in brisk south
to southwest winds today...along with warmer conditions. Although
the temperature rose a little faster than forecast earlier this
morning...the remainder of the forecast for today looks
reasonable...and no changes are planned for this morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 518 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
aviation discussion for the 12z tafs is below.
VFR conditions are expected to continue.
There is a chance for non convective low level wind
shear near kokc...koun...ksps...klaw...and kpnc before
16z and after 23z...but did not mention as confidence
of occurrence remains low.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
no major weather concerns are expected over the next seven days.
Today...dry and warmer weather will occur under sunny skies. Winds
will be a bit stronger than yesterday in many locations. Used a
blend of model guidance highs with a slight preference towards
the warmer numbers due to plenty of sun.
Saturday will be even warmer with many locations rising into
the 70s. Winds will be similar to today and skies will remain
mostly sunny. May be near 80 degrees over far western Oklahoma and
far western North Texas.
Sunday into Sunday night...a strong cold front will move south
across the central and Southern Plains. The timing of the front
remains somewhat uncertain...though may arrive in northern
Oklahoma around by late morning and move through Durant by 6 am
Monday. Gusty north winds will occur behind the front along with
colder temperatures. The high temperature forecast on Sunday may
be tricky due to frontal position with a strong gradient near the
front. Ahead of the front temperatures may soar into the 70s to
near 80. Went slightly below guidance temperatures for Sunday
night thinking cold air advection will be quite strong. Monday
morning will be a brisk one.
There is a chance that very light precipitation develops near or
just behind the cold front Sunday night into Monday...mainly east
of I-35. Kept 20 percent chances of light rain mainly east of a
Madill to Ada to Seminole line. Any precipitation would be very
light as moisture is forecast to be very shallow. Precipitation
types could be nearly anything based on model soundings.
Monday night through Thursday...low confidence continues during
this time frame due to differing model solutions. Current
forecast calls for low rain chances Thursday east of I-35.
Temperatures and moisture may increase during this period.
breezy conditions...low humidity...and warmer temperatures will
elevate fire weather concerns through Sunday. Red flag conditions
seem unlikely as the strongest winds will be located where
humidity values are highest. An abrupt wind shift to the north
will occur behind the passage of a cold front Sunday into
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 66 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 68 43 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 72 48 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 73 38 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 63 42 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 50 74 57 / 0 0 0 0