Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015
18z tafs... MVFR ceilings will gradually improve this afternoon/evening
with clouds clearing out at some sites. MVFR ceilings could build
back in Sun morning at a few sites. With light winds tonight... some
reduced visibilities may be possible early Sunday but conditions
too uncertain at this point for mention in taf.
Previous discussion... /issued 610 am CDT Sat may 30 2015/
thunderstorms possible at Special Weather Statement this morning before shifting east
and south of the site. Otherwise... cold front will bring a period
of gusty north winds and MVFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings
expected to rise into VFR Cat by late this morning before skies
clear late today. Winds will become light tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Sat may 30 2015/
still an opportunity for rain... mainly across southern Oklahoma
into North Texas this morning as upper wave moves across and
surface cold front pushes south. It does appear that heaviest
precipitation will remain south of the area. Will continue to trend back on
the Flash Flood Watch. Will go ahead and cancel the watch across
much of central and northern Oklahoma... but maintain it through
midday today across the south. What rain does occur should exit
the area this afternoon with drier air overspreading the area
behind the cold front.
This should mark the start of a drier period for the Southern
Plains as models depict upper ridge building out of The Rockies
into the central U.S. This may last through the upcoming week and
perhaps beyond. As of right now... no additional rain chances are
in the forecast beyond today. Temperatures expected to warm into the 80s
by early this week and continue through the forecast period. This
along with a breezy south wind should allow many areas to begin to
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 55 76 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 54 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 57 79 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 50 77 58 84 / 0 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 52 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 58 76 59 81 / 10 0 0 0
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for okz041-
Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for txz090.