Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
604 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
north winds will become light and variable this evening as high
pressure builds. Winds will quickly shift back to the south on
Thursday and increase in western Oklahoma. VFR conditions will
Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
north/northwest winds will continue to relax through the evening as
surface high pressure builds in from the west/northwest in response to continued
h500 ridging across the western U.S. Overnight... under mostly clear
skies... temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 20s across the northern
half of OK... to the lower 30s across texoma by Thanksgiving morning.
For Thanksgiving... light north/NE winds... early... will continue to
veer to the south through the afternoon under sunny skies... while temperatures
climb into the 50s across the western half of OK and western North Texas in the
afternoon... offering up a beautiful Thanksgiving day.
As shallow riding continues... a warming trend can be expected
through the remainder of the Holiday weekend. Sat and sun still look
to be the warmest... with highs in the upper 60s and 70s each afternoon.
Although not a huge concern... depending on how far west dewpoints
spread Friday and Sat afternoon with southerly flow... fire weather
conditions may be heightened slightly across far western OK each afternoon
given breezy S/SW winds.
The warmer temperatures will come to an end Sun night into Monday... as a cold
front pushes in from the north. Made only minor adjustments to
temperatures... but most will notice the Stark change to highs in the 40s
Monday... but temperatures will rebound quickly Tuesday... with south winds
returning and highs climbing back into the 50s.
For the remainder of the week... long range guidance remains out of
phase... with noticeable differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) and
lack of consistency between runs... with Stark differences between
the 26/06z and 26/12z GFS. The European model (ecmwf) maintains a slightly slower
progression of the shortwave coming ashore... while the GFS
continues to be a touch faster. Neither seems to have latched on to
a reasonable solution... meanwhile... the recent (26/12z)
experimental 13km GFS leans slightly to the European model (ecmwf). Overall...
little to no confidence is gained this afternoon... but kept slight chance
of rain early Wednesday into Thursday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 28 54 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 29 54 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 33 57 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 25 58 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 50 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 33 56 37 64 / 0 0 0 0