Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
303 PM CST Monday Dec 22 2014
a few weak echoes are showing up on area radars. Measurable
precipitation is not expected through early evening...although a
few small patches of drizzle or sprinkles cannot be ruled out.
An area of moisture and isentropic lift will accompany a middle-level
wave across our Texas and far southern Oklahoma counties
overnight and early Tuesday. There will be a tight gradient of
rain chances along the northern edge. Temperatures will be warm
enough for all rain...except possibly along the northern
fringe...where a mix of rain/snow may occur early tomorrow
For Tuesday night into early Wednesday...another glob of moisture
is forecast to follow behind the departing storm system. This
will bring a chance of light snow to northern Oklahoma. Minimal
lift is expected in this part of the storm system...so only very
light accumulation is expected in the northwest. A mix of light
rain and snow may extend as far south as central Oklahoma.
Strong northwest winds are expected tomorrow...enhanced by cold
air advection. A Wind Advisory may be needed tomorrow...depending
on the wind guidance trends.
Christmas day will be windy...warm...and dry. If current model
guidance is anywhere close to correct...a Wind Advisory will be
necessary...and a high wind watch/warning may need to be
considered. Most models show 30-50 knots winds between 850 mb and the
lowest layer above the surface.
A cold front will arrive Friday...bringing a noticeable drop in
temperatures. The weekend is currently beyond the range of
coherent model forecasts. They diverge quite seriously around
Saturday...so the weekend forecast is currently a mix of guidance
with low confidence levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 37 48 33 43 / 10 10 20 10
Hobart OK 36 48 31 46 / 10 10 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 40 51 34 48 / 20 20 10 0
gage OK 32 42 28 45 / 10 20 20 0
Ponca City OK 34 46 33 41 / 10 10 20 10
Durant OK 42 51 36 45 / 20 50 10 10