Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
338 PM CST Thursday Dec 12 2013
main forecast concern will be rain chances late tonight through
S/SW winds slowly increased through early this afternoon...gusting
15 to 20 kts... along with increasing cloud cover across central and
southwestern OK and western North Texas. Looking at the larger picture... loop of WV
provides a wonderful view of the short wave h500 trough which
continues to churn ewrd across so-cal and western Arizona. Also visible is
the southern stream of moisture...which continues to be pulled east/NE into
the Southern Plains from the eastern Pacific/Gulf of California. 21z surface analysis
places the low over northestern nm/southeastern Colorado. With S/southwesterly flow across the
region ahead of the low... temperatures and ll/mid-level moisture will
continue to increase overnight... with overnight lows likely
occurring between 9 and midnight for most locations. Short range
guidance remains in decent agreement... with the short wave trough
advancing ewrd across The Four Corners overnight. This will result
in the surface low beginning to drop southward along the TX-Panhandle...and a
warm front lifting nwrd across the Southern Plains. With surface temperatures above
freezing overnight... rain is the expected precipitation type. However...
local variability may result in a few areas of near or at freezing
temperatures... resulting in some light patchy areas of freezing rain. Rain chances
will increase from western North Texas/southwestern OK to the NE after midnight... any
initial rainfall for central OK...will likely present itself around
sunrise. Rain chances will continue through the day... with highs in
the middle 40s across central OK to the upper 40s/middle 50s across western OK
and western North Texas. Remaining rain chances will exit ewrd late Friday
night/early Sat morning.
As mentioned above... some light freezing rain is possible... especially in
sheltered areas where ground temperatures continue to hold below freezing.
Therefore... residents across the region should be aware of some
slick spots early Friday morning on sidewalks and roadways.
With the upper low exiting early Saturday... a Stout trough will
follow quickly behind it. This will result in a return to north/northwest
winds... with Canadian high pressure spreading across the plains.
Temperatures will dip back into the middle 30s and 40s across the region with
Sunday morning lows in the 20s. A warming trend will then take shape
Sunday and through the middle of next week...with highs generally in
the 50s... with low 60s possible on Monday in some locations.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 33 46 28 37 / 30 50 20 10
Hobart OK 33 48 25 38 / 20 20 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 37 51 31 41 / 40 50 10 0
gage OK 32 51 20 44 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 31 44 24 36 / 20 50 20 0
Durant OK 35 43 39 44 / 30 70 30 10