Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
559 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013 


Synopsis... 
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Tuesday 
night. By Wednesday a wet and cool weather pattern will take hold 
of the region. Showery and cool conditions will continue through 
the week, with a drying and warming trend expected this weekend. 
Wetter and cooler weather will return early next week. 




&& 


Discussion... 
first of what is likely to be several updates to the forecast this 
evening. Main change with the forecast was to delay the onset of 
precipitation for the Spokane/Coeur D'Alene Metro area until late 
this evening. Locations north of Spokane will have to wait even 
longer for the rain to start. Light rain is just starting to move 
into southeast Washington at 6pm. There's a few lightning strikes 
associated with this but I don't see a big threat of thunder at 
the moment. I'll be digging into this further this evening. 


Meanwhile the persistent rain over the Moses Lake area is finally 
starting to abate, but there's more showers moving up from the 
south. The best chances of rain will be over the Cascades. But all 
of this activity should wane as the night progresses. 


Just the opposite will occur over the Panhandle. All guidance 
agrees that a north-south band of heavy rain will set up over the 
Panhandle tonight and Wednesday morning. I'll be looking into this 
more for any potential flood highlights. Rj 


&& 


Aviation... 
00z tafs: another round of showers and thunderstorms will affect all 
of the taf sites this evening with moderate rain and some MVFR 
cigs. A band of moderate to heavy rain will develop late tonight 
along the Washington/Idaho border, and persist through much of Wednesday. This 
will bring IFR conditions to most of the eastern taf sites all day. 
Kgeg will be on the western edge of this band and conditions may 
improve a bit in the late afternoon. Ksff and certainly kcoe will 
feel the brunt of this event. To the south, kpuw and lws may see 
some improvement in the afternoon but I didn't have enough 
confidence in this. Kmwh and keat should remain out of the action 
for the most part and will actually have better conditions tomorrow 
than today. Rj 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 52 54 45 55 44 61 / 100 100 80 80 50 60 
Coeur D'Alene 52 54 46 54 42 60 / 100 100 100 90 50 60 
Pullman 49 53 44 56 42 60 / 100 100 70 60 30 60 
Lewiston 54 58 49 64 44 67 / 100 100 70 60 20 50 
Colville 51 63 50 57 48 67 / 80 100 100 100 60 50 
Sandpoint 50 56 46 53 45 60 / 100 100 100 100 60 60 
Kellogg 50 51 44 51 39 57 / 100 100 100 100 50 60 
Moses Lake 55 66 51 65 49 69 / 50 50 50 60 30 30 
Wenatchee 56 66 52 64 51 68 / 70 40 50 60 40 30 
Omak 53 66 51 64 50 69 / 70 80 70 80 60 50 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$