Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
431 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Synopsis....
hot and dry weather will be featured into the Independence day
weekend. Hottest days will likely be Thursday and Friday with many
valley sites topping the century mark. Breezes will be kicking up
as weather systems move across the strong upper level ridge.
Friday and Saturday winds are potentially looking more substantial
as a cool front tries to sag in from Canada eventually forcing
winds more from the north. It is still looking dry and warm even
into the beginning of next week.



&&

Discussion...

Tonight though Friday night: a ridge of high pressure will be the
dominate weather feature during this period continuing to deliver
excessive heat...record temperatures... and dry conditions.
Temperatures this afternoon are already in the 90s in most
locations and the Mercury is going to continue to rise Thursday
and Friday. Consequently, heat advisories are in effect for The
Lowlands stretching from the lower Idaho Panhandle...Columbia
Basin...and along the Highway 97 corridor. This is where
temperatures will achieve triple digit heat coupled with lows
generally warmer than 60-65f. For all other valleys not in the
advisory, temperatures will still be hot but look to top out in
the mid to upper 90s with an isolated 100-101f.

Winds will generally remain light Thursday following a weak northerly
push down the Okanogan Valley but will increase in the Cascade
gaps and Columbia Basin Friday as the upper-level ridge becomes
dented. This will increase the potential for rapidly spreading
wildfires and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued to address
these concerns. /Sb

Saturday through wednesday: we focused heavily on the weekend
winds following a frontal passage Saturday that will produce very
gusty north winds. The Okanogan Valley and western Columbia Basin
will be the first to see these winds...with pressure gradients
supporting gusts up to 30-40 mph. For Sunday and Monday the
highest wind threat will shift east into the Spokane/ Coeur
D'Alene and the north Idaho corridor of boundary and Bonner
counties. With this Post-frontal dry air mass in place, there's
only a slight chance of thunder near the British Columbia border...and this won't
be until Tuesday through Wednesday associated a second wave moving
southeast out of British Columbia.Bz



&&

Aviation... 00z tafs: drier air over much of the region will result
in VFR conditions at all taf sites through Thursday afternoon. A
weak upper level impulse on Thursday may result in isolated
thunderstorms in the northern Panhandle, but confidence is low. A
slight increase in winds to between 10-15 kts from the northeast is
expected through the Purcell Trench and out into kcoe between 12-
18z; otherwise, weak and terrain driven winds at all other taf
sites. /Svh



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 67 98 69 99 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 61 95 63 97 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 55 95 59 95 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 69 103 70 104 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 63 100 62 102 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 56 94 55 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 58 95 60 96 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 69 102 67 103 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 73 103 73 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 102 66 104 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...heat advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Lewis and southern Nez
Perce counties-Lewiston area.

Washington...heat advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for lower Garfield and
Asotin counties-Moses Lake area-upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for East Washington central Cascade valleys (zone 677)-East
Washington south central Cascade valleys (zone 676).

Heat advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 9 PM PDT Friday for Okanogan
Valley-Wenatchee area.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for East Washington northern Columbia Basin (zone
673)-East Washington Okanogan/Methow valleys (zone 684).

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations