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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
222 am PDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Synopsis...the weather will be mainly dry and continued very
warm throughout the week. A couple of weak disturbances today and
again Thursday will likely stir up the winds a bit in the
afternoon. Friday looks to be the warmest day this week...with
valley highs ranging from 96 to 104.



..gusty winds and low relative humidity for Cascade Gap valleys...

Today through Wednesday...a shortwave trough will slide across
the northern tier this afternoon/evening. This will bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms to extreme northeast Washington and the
northern Panhandle of Idaho. Convective parameters (cape/bulk
shear) will be marginal so organized storms are not expected. The
main weather concern will be gusty winds for the Cascade Gap
valleys this afternoon that will briefly overlap with minimum
relative humidity for the Kittitas Valley. Gusty winds and low relative humidity
may briefly overlap in the Wenatchee valley but criteria will just
barely be met, if at all. Confidence is higher for meeting
critical fire weather criteria in the Kittitas Valley. Expect
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph during
the late afternoon/early evening hours. The stronger winds are
expected to develop closer to sunset when relative humidity is starting to
increase. As the trough moves east tonight, the focus for gusty
winds will shift to the Okanogan Valley where the northerly
surface pressure gradient will strengthen. This will be less of a
fire weather concern since the stronger winds will occur during
the overnight hours when rhs are recovering.

The passing trough will act to knock down the ridge temporarily
but it should rebound quickly for Wednesday. Temperatures today
will be about the same as monday's readings with highs around 15
degrees above normal. Temperatures will warm slightly Wednesday
under the building ridge. A few high temperature records may in
jeopardy across the Lower Basin but this will not be widespread.

Wednesday night through Friday...the ridge of high pressure will
be assaulted once more by a fast moving...but weak and dry short
wave disturbance. This wave will once again over top the ridge and
track through southern b.C. A tightening of the pressure gradient
across the Cascades will result in increased winds through the
gaps and spilling onto the Waterville Plateau ad possibly down the
Okanogan Valley. The wave will also keep temperatures in check (at
least a little bit anyway), but highs will still be 15 degrees or
more above average.

Friday through Tuesday the models are showing the ridge bending
down further as a stronger wave moves through northern b.C. And
east across The Divide Friday and Friday night. Meanwhile the
ridge will retrograde into the eastern Pacific and begin to
amplify. This puts the region in a dry northwesterly flow and
brings cooler temperatures to the region.

By Monday model guidance diverges enough that forecast confidence
is on the low side of average. One model wants to rebuild the
ridge just inside 130w with the northwest flow shifting to east of
The Divide and keep conditions warm and dry...another model want
to dig another low south along the coast and open up the pac northwest to
a moist southwest flow and a better chance for thunderstorms.
Still another model in somewhere in between with the low closing
off over b.C. The forecast for Monday and Tuesday leans heavily
towards a warm and dry solution and we will see how things shape
up to begin the new work week. Stay tuned. Tobin


06z tafs: shortwave ridging of higher pressure will build in over
the region. This will promote clearing skies and VFR conditions at
all taf sites. Patchy fog will be possible in the northern
Panhandle early Tuesday morning, but should remain north of kcoe.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 94 65 95 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur D'Alene 91 61 92 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 90 56 91 56 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 99 67 100 67 103 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 95 60 96 60 99 62 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 90 54 91 54 93 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 90 60 91 58 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 100 65 101 66 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 99 69 100 73 104 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 98 61 99 63 101 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0


Otx watches/warnings/advisories...


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