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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
810 PM PDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Synopsis...
scattered showers and thunderstorms decrease through sunset
Wednesday night, but the threat returns for the afternoon hours
on Thursday and Friday. However they will be more focused around
the mountains. Expect a warming trend into the weekend, with highs
in the 80s, with a lingering threat of mainly mountain showers
and thunderstorms. By next Monday and Tuesday the next best chance
of showers and thunderstorms arrives, with the potential for some
stronger storms and the return of cooler temperatures.



&&

Discussion...
evening update: the shower and thunderstorm threat is largely on
the wane. However there disturbances continue to pivot around the
exiting upper low. WV imagery shows the center of that exiting low
around eastern Idaho County (in lower Panhandle of idaho) this
hour. However disturbance rounding the backside of that low will
continue to provide some shower threat through the night. One wave
is dropping across southeast Washington now. Another couple wave are
pushing toward the US/British Columbia border. These latter two waves and at
least some indication of elevated instability through the night,
as well as trends on the hrrr suggest keeping some shower threat
going through the night across the northern mountains,
Spokane/c'da area and Panhandle mountains. Though after 09z-10z
(2-3 am) this threat may be on the wane as the waves leave the
Main Pool of potential elevated instability. Either way, I
continued the threat of showers going into the overnight the
aforementioned locations. I'm not as confident that there could be
any nocturnal thunder mixed in, so I left it out.

The remainder of the forecast looks generally on track. Only minor
tweaks to the Thursday afternoon/evening shower chances. With the
flow turning from northwest to westerly through tonight into
tomorrow this should help hold the main shower chances in the
mountains and closer to the Washington/Idaho border eastward, leaving much of
the basin dry. Yet there is still enough to say there is some
threat in the Spokane area into the higher Palouse, again with the
best chance closer to the Idaho border. /J. Cote'

&&

Aviation...
00z tafs: isold to sct -shra/-tsra will be possible across much
of the region, with the best chance before 03z. Thereafter the
main threat will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. There
may be some lingering showers chances into the early overnight
between mwh, geg, sff, Coe with the potential for the left over
showers over the northern mountains to drift south, before
abating but confidence is low. The threat of showers/T-storms
will be renewed Thursday afternoon, with the main chances closer
to the mountains/Idaho border, including near eat, Coe, puw, lws and
maybe sff. Brief heavy rain, gusty/erratic winds and small hail
are possible, along with isolated lightning strikes. There will
also be a small window where patchy fog is possible, between 11z
and 16z around sff/Coe and perhaps lws. Confidence leans toward
this not being much of issue and if any develops it should be
shallow and short-lived. /J. Cote'





&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 52 79 57 82 59 85 / 20 10 10 20 10 10
Coeur D'Alene 49 78 54 82 56 83 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Pullman 46 75 52 82 56 83 / 20 20 20 20 20 20
Lewiston 52 83 58 88 63 90 / 20 10 10 20 20 20
Colville 53 82 54 83 54 86 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Sandpoint 50 78 51 81 52 80 / 20 20 20 30 20 20
Kellogg 47 76 49 81 53 81 / 20 40 40 30 30 20
Moses Lake 53 86 58 90 59 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 10
Wenatchee 59 86 64 89 63 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Omak 51 86 56 87 54 90 / 20 10 10 20 20 10

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.
Washington...none.
&&

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