Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington
950 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016

Synopsis...
strong high pressure will persist into Wednesday. Dry and mild
conditions are expected for the first half of the week. A more
progressive and unsettled pattern will return late this week
bringing a chance of light rain Thursday in the Cascades and over
the rest of the region Friday through the weekend.



&&

Discussion...
forecast challenge tonight is the placement of fog as the region
remains under a strengthening ridge. Surface observations this
evening show relative humidities reaching 100 percent confined to
locations in the immediate vicinity of water bodies. This is
where fog formed this morning and the same scenario will likely be
repeated overnight. The persistent ridge and strengthening low
level inversions has prompted the issuance of an air stagnation
advisory for much of eastern Washington through Saturday. /Kelch

&&

Aviation...
06z tafs: a strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the
forecast area through the week with much drier air moving into the
region. For tonight through Tuesday clearing skies and light
northeast to southeast winds will allow good radiational cooling
and the development of strong morning inversions. This in turn
typically will result in the formation of fog and stratus. The
drier air and easterly gradient will keep that in check somewhat.
For kgeg/ksff fog and stratus will likely form late tonight and
linger through the morning. So VFR/MVFR conditions will drop to
IFR/LIFR cigs/vsby 14z-20z before clearing in the afternoon.
Confidence is only low to moderate for LIFR conditions. Kcoe-
kpuw-klws will remain VFR...however some ground fog may form early
in the morning near kcoe. The easterly gradient will allow the
moisture to pile up along the east slopes of the Cascades. The
best chance for IFR/LIFR vsby/cigs will be at kmwh- keat between
08-18z but again confidence is only moderate with the amount of
dry air in place. /Ek



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Spokane 30 49 31 46 35 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Coeur D'Alene 31 51 31 48 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Pullman 36 55 35 54 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Lewiston 37 57 38 57 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Colville 27 43 31 43 33 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
Sandpoint 27 47 31 44 31 44 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
Kellogg 30 51 31 48 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Moses Lake 29 49 31 47 36 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 30 43 32 44 36 45 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
Omak 20 41 30 40 34 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 20

&&

Otx watches/warnings/advisories...
Idaho...none.
Washington...air stagnation advisory until 10 am PST Saturday for east slopes
northern Cascades-Moses Lake area-northeast mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee area.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations