Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1102 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
Canadian high pressure builds over the region through Wednesday
night. High pressure will remain over the region on Thursday and
is then followed by a cold frontal passage late Friday and Friday
night. High pressure builds in for the weekend...then another cold
front may traverse the region during the beginning of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
high pressure north of the region will build over the region tonight
with partly cloudy skies as broken high clouds drift across. Low temperatures are
still on track to fall into the upper 40s and 50s.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
surface high pressure will continue to build towards the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night with dry weather and mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday as highs climb
into the lower and middle 70s. Wednesday nights lows fall into the
upper 40s and 50s.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
the models were in good agreement through the extended so a blend was
Hi pressure builds over the County Warning Area Thursday...so light winds and dry weather. Return
flow on Friday so south-southwest flow gets breezy along the S coasts...about 10-20
miles per hour. 500 mb trough and associated cold front brings chances for rain late Friday
through Friday night. Best forcing north of the area...but there is a
significant shortwave embedded in the 500 mb trough as it swings through the
region. As a result...there is some strong middle level frogen so a band
of rain as opposed to just passing showers is now forecast. Hi pressure builds
in behind the system Sat...then drifts through and eventually S of the
region by Monday. Dry weather through this period. There could be some patchy
frost across the colder interior spots Sat night assuming the system
timing holds yielding clear skies and light winds. Have lowered temperatures
significantly from the previous forecast for this time frame. A weak
cold front possible Tuesday...models have been hinting at this so it is not a
new feature. The system looks moisture starved at this time so kept the forecast
Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure builds through Wednesday.
VFR through the taf period.
Winds remain light...either northwest or light and variable overnight.
Northwest winds prevail Wednesday. Winds may back slightly to the west/northwest
during the afternoon as a weak trough develops. Speeds should
generally remain 10 knots or less through the day.
Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday...
Friday-Friday night...chance MVFR or lower PM hours. A chance of
showers. A slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon.
Sat...a chance of showers along coastal and mainly eastern
terminals where MVFR or lower will be possible.
with seas running a feet higher than expected at this time at 5-7
feet...extended Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas through Wednesday afternoon. Seas
at the offshore buoys should fall below 5 feet by Wednesday evening.
Marginal Small Craft Advisory southwesterly winds on the ocean are possible Friday evening ahead of a
cold front. All areas may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria after the passage of
the cold front Friday night into Sat.
less than inch of rain is likely late Friday through Friday night.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT
Wednesday for anz350-353-355.
short term...British Columbia