Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
417 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
high pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the
region through the upcoming week. A weak trough or warm front will
pass through Sunday night
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a large upper ridge encompasses much of the country with a break
in the ridge across the Great Lakes and MS valley states. A
stronger short wave trough over the Great Lakes passes to the north
late tonight into sun with little more than a few clouds. Today
will be another seasonable day with low humidity and highs
generally in the lower to middle 80s. Stayed close to a met/mav MOS
A thermal trough across the region will allow for a return southerly
flow at most locations this after with local seabreeze enhancement.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development at the ocean
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
a series of short wave troughs pass to the north...one tonight...and
another Sun night. The latter of which will be preceded by warm
advection clouds late sun after/night with clearing skies by early
Monday. Airmass will be strongly capped with lack of a strong
lifting mechanism. Thus...have kept the mention of convection out
of the forecast...but an isolated shower/thunderstorm north and
west of NYC in the late after/early evening sun is not out of the
question. A high amplitude ridge builds east into the area Monday
into Monday night with very warm...muggy conditions.
High will be in the well into the middle and upper 80s on Monday with a
few 90s across the interior and metropolitan New York. Fortunately...dew points
will not be high enough for heat advisory criteria.
Once again...used a met/mav MOS blend for highs and lows.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
anomalously high heights across the area next week will translate to
above normal temperatures and for the most part dry conditions.
Isolated convection is not out of the question during the peak
heating of the day across the hills north and west of NYC.
Confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this
time...especially without a deep lifting mechanism to break the cap.
Highs during the period will range from the lower to middle 80s near
the coast to around 90 inland...with lows in the 60s to 70. This is
above normal by about 5 to 8 degrees.
Model consensus points to the high amplitude ridge over the
eastern U.S. Likely suppressing tropical cyclone Erika well to the
south next week...but please refer to the National Hurricane
Center products for latest forecast and track information.
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure remains over the terminals this morning...then builds
offshore this afternoon into tonight.
VFR through the taf period.
Light and variable wind becomes west-northwest to SW around 5 knots after sunrise.
Sea breezes develop late morning south shores of Long Island and
Connecticut and then moves inland through the afternoon. Timing of
wind shift in tafs may be off by +/- and hour.
Winds become light and variable overnight for outlying terminals
and SW around 5 knots across New York metropolitan terminals.
Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday...
Saturday night-Wednesday....VFR. Afternoon seabreezes at coastal
terminals each day.
sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast through the middle of next week.
A moderate SW flow on the ocean waters this after and again sun
after/evening into Monday looks to fall just short of criteria as gusts
approach 20 knots with seas of 2 to 4 feet. Elsewhere...seas on the
sound/Harbor/bays will generally be 1 feet or less.
A generally weak pressure gradient over the eastern Seaboard is
expected Tuesday through middle week.
no significant rainfall is expected through the middle of next
with a full moon tonight...brief minor inundation is possible
during the times of high tide across the typically vulnerable
coastal locales this weekend into the start of the work week.