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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service New York New York
452 PM EDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Synopsis...
a slow moving cold front will approach tonight then stall across
the area Tuesday. The cold front moves offshore Wednesday as weak
high pressure builds into the area. Several waves of low pressure
may impact the area for the end of the week. High pressure builds
back in for the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
forecast generally on track with high temperatures across New
Jersey trending a few degrees warmer than guidance owing to
strong southwest flow. A few showers have developed well ahead of
the cold front across eastern New York and PA...so have increased probability of precipitation
slightly for southeast New York and northwest New Jersey. Although there is
instability...warmer air aloft is hindering more vigorous
development with limited lightning only noted in storms with
stronger updrafts. At least isolated thunderstorms with gusty
winds may be possible this evening before the front approaches.

Strong and gusty south to southwest flow will continue through
the evening...with a high risk for the development of rip currents
at the ocean beaches.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight in
association with the front...though some guidance suggests
precipitation splits around NYC and Long Island with greater
chances to the north and south.

There is a high risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches through this evening. A rip current statement is in
effect.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
the front is forecast to stall across the area Tuesday with a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very little
appreciable difference will be felt with temperatures remaining
above normal and similar humidity as Monday. Late Tuesday night
the upper trough builds farther south and east...forcing the
attendant surface front farther offshore with lower dew points
advecting into the region. A subsequent decrease in humidity will
be felt as this occurs. By morning...thunderstorms will mainly be
confined to the offshore waters.

There is a high risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches through Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
A rip current statement is in effect.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
cold front continues to slowly move offshore with high pressure
building into the area on Wednesday. Upper level trough remains over
the area into Thursday.

Upper level trough departs the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models have come into better agreement with surface low over the middle-
west trekking east Wednesday night and affecting the area mainly
from Thursday night through at least Friday night. However...there
is still uncertainty on where it tracks and therefore how much rain
we do receive. However...it does appear more certain that a
widespread heavy rain event is in store for this time period.

Isentropic lift out ahead of the approaching low noted in both the
12z GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf)...mainly late Thursday night...so thinking
this will be more stratiform rain. Surface low continues its
approach Friday morning. Models differ in the placement of the low.
The 12z European model (ecmwf) and 12z GFS agree with the low being over the northern
Middle-Atlantic States by 06z Saturday. Thereafter...models differ
quite a bit in their solutions. 12z European model (ecmwf) treks the low northeast in
side the 40/70 benchmark through the day Saturday while it slowly
strengthens while the GFS weakens the low over the old frontal
boundary offshore and weaker waves of low pressure riding along
it...while the 12z Canadian is an outlier being more progressive than
the other models. Therefore...sided more along the lines of the GFS
and European model (ecmwf) and keep chance probability of precipitation in the area through the day Saturday

Low pressure pushes away from the area late Saturday night into
Sunday as weak high pressure builds back into the region for the
second half of the weekend with a return to dry conditions.

Outside of Friday...temperatures should be seasonable for this time
of year. Rain and clouds will keep temperatures down on Friday...not
making it out of the 70s region-wide. In fact...temperatures may
prove to be a bit lower than what is currently forecast.

&&

Aviation /21z Monday through Saturday/...
a weak front will approach this evening and drift out to sea on Tuesday.

Mainly VFR outside of thunderstorms through the taf period.

Thunderstorms developing over New York state and northestern PA may impact the city after
21z...so a tempo has been included. Otherwise...additional scattered thunderstorm
development possible tonight. Coverage and exact timing uncertain tonight
so thunderstorms in the vicinity used in the tafs.

There could be some MVFR visible at times in br mainly kgon/khpn/kswf
after 4-6z.

A general SW flow through the taf period. Winds will be backed closer
to the S this afternoon and evening along the coasts due to the sea breeze
enhanced flow.

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: there is chance that thunderstorms do not impact the Airport
before 00z. Stronger winds may linger until around 2z.

Klga fcster comments: there is chance that thunderstorms do not impact the Airport
before 00z. Stronger winds may linger until around 2z.

Kewr fcster comments: there is chance that thunderstorms do not impact the Airport
before 00z.

Kteb fcster comments: there is chance that thunderstorms do not impact the Airport
before 00z.

Khpn fcster comments: there is chance that thunderstorms do not impact the Airport
before 00z. Chance for MVFR visible after 4-6z.

Kisp fcster comments: low chance that thunderstorms hold together and impact
the Airport after 23z.

Outlook for 18z Tuesday through Sat...
rest of Tuesday...slight chance for thunderstorms mainly coastal terminals. Becoming
VFR overnight.SW flow becoming northwest overnight.
Wed-Thu...VFR. Generally west flow.
Friday...MVFR or lower in rain. Winds becoming NE.
Sat...MVFR or lower possible in rain. NE winds.

&&

Marine...
a cold front approaches the waters late today...moving close to
the waters tonight. Winds out ahead of the front will remain
strong through the afternoon into Monday night before lightening
with the approach of the front.

Ocean seas build due to the increase in these winds. Small Craft Advisory
starting at 4 PM local and through tonight. Occasional 25 knots
gusts possible for New York Harbor...western South Shore bays and
western Li sound late Monday after into Monday evening.

Ocean seas will be subsiding Tuesday night...but 5 feet seas may
linger on the eastern ocean until Wednesday morning. Weak high
pressure passes over the waters on Wednesday with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected. Several waves of low pressure may pass over the waters for
the end of the week. Occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on
Friday...especially on the ocean.

Weak high pressure passes over the waters on Wednesday with sub Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected. Low pressure may pass over or near the waters
for the end of the week into the first half of the weekend.
Occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on Saturday...especially on
the ocean.

&&

Hydrology...
thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday will product localized heavy
rainfall...which could lead to minor poor drainage nuisance flooding.

A widespread significant rainfall is possible late Thursday into
Friday. However...uncertainty exists in where and when the heaviest
of the rain will fall. Antecedent dry conditions should limit
flooding potential. However...any thunderstorms that do develop
would have the potential for localized flooding.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for nyz075-
080-081-178-179.
High rip current risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

&&

$$

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