Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1033 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
a cold front will moves through this evening...and then settles
just south of the area overnight into Thursday. High pressure will
then build in from Thursday night into Friday...and remain through
Tuesday as waves of low pressure pass to the south Friday night
into Saturday...and Sunday night into Tuesday night. A cold front
will approach on Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
cold front continues working its way into the region this
evening...and will move south of the area after midnight. With loss
of instability...isolated showers have diminished. With weak
convergence and no real support for any additional
development...have removed mention of isolated showers/storms for the
remainder of the evening.
Skies will become mostly clear overnight. Lows will range from
near 70 in Midtown NYC...to the 60s most elsewhere...to some upper
50s in the valleys of Orange County and in the Long Island Pine
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
the cold front should stall not too far off to the south on Thursday.
Expect dry conds for the most part...though with area in right
rear quadrant of upper jet expect plenty of high/middle level clouds
mainly across NYC metropolitan and Long Island. Enough late day
instability may also build for a late day shower/thunderstorm in/near
NE New Jersey. High temperatures should be similar to those of today...lower and
Flow will be weak enough to allow sea breeze development...though
not nearly as strong as the past couple of days.
Once the upper jet passes to the east late Thursday night...high
pressure should start to build in from the Great Lakes...with north-NE
flow and mostly clear skies. As a result lows will be a cooler
Lower/Middle 60s in most places...and 55-60 across the interior.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches on
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
a broad upper trough remains across the northeast Friday into
Saturday with shortwaves rotating through the trough. The upper
trough weakens Saturday night and moves offshore Sunday as ridging
builds over the area. Meanwhile at the surface one wave of low
pressure passes to the south Friday night into Saturday. The
northern fringes of the precipitation shield may reach Long Island.
At this time will keep just slight chance probability of precipitation across eastern Long
Island as the wave passes. Another wave passes Sunday night into
Tuesday. However with ridging across the region this wave will be
farther to the south and is not expected to affect the area. Tuesday
the upper ridge moves offshore as a northern stream trough digs into
the northern plains and upper Midwest. A weak shortwave could bring
some showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. With the uncertainty will be probability of precipitation at slight chance at this
time. Wednesday a stronger shortwave accompanied by a surface cold
front will bring a better chance for precipitation.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
a cold front moves across the area tonight. High pressure builds into
the region on Thursday.
VFR through the taf period.
West-northwest 5-10 knots will become light/vrb by midnight tonight.
Light winds in the morning will give way to afternoon sea
breezes at 5-10 knots.
Outlook for 03z Friday through Monday...
Thursday night...VFR with diminishing winds.
Friday...VFR with winds veering from the NE to the east-southeast. Sea breezes
Friday night-Sat...low pressure will track S of the region. If the low is
close enough...MVFR or lower possible with -ra. Winds generally NE
seas have built to 5 feet at 44017 this evening so the Small Craft Advisory continues
east o Moriches. Have noted seas building to just above 4 feet between
Fire Island Inlet and Moriches Inlet. Seas should stay below 5 feet
here...but will need to monitor over the next few hours to see if
a Small Craft Advisory is needed for the central ocean.
A weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast waters Thursday
through Monday. Generally high pressure will be across the
waters...with one low passing to the south Friday night into
Sat...and another low passing south slowly from Sunday night
no significant precipitation is expected during the forecast
with full moon...tidal departures of only 3/4 to 1 1/2 feet are
needed for minor coastal flooding benchmarks to be reached at the
peak of the nighttime high tides the next few days.
Minor benchmarks could briefly be touched along the South Shore
bays of Nassau County through late this week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT
Thursday for anz350.