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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
728 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Synopsis...
low pressure east of Cape Cod will continue to track northeast
into the Canadian Maritimes today as high pressure builds into the
Ohio Valley. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across the
region Saturday night. High pressure builds across the area later
Sunday through Monday...then offshore by Tuesday. Another cold
front will move across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night.
High pressure builds back across the area Thursday into Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
updated probability of precipitation to account for an area of showers that are gradually
pushing southward across southern Connecticut and eastern Long
Island. Otherwise...forecast on track.

The last spoke of vorticity will move across the region this
morning...and a few showers are possible with it. Any showers that
develop will taper off by mid-morning.

With abundant middle-level moisture...skies will remain cloudy
throughout the day...partially clearing late in the day.

The pressure gradient tightens up between the departing low and high
pressure building to the west...and northwest winds will range from 15-20 miles per hour
with gusts up to 25 miles per hour.

Highs top off in the low to middle 60s...and possibly into the upper
60s across the urbanized parts of NE New Jersey.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
gradient relaxes tonight...and skies clear out. Northwest winds will
diminish to 5-10 miles per hour...and to 5 miles per hour or less across the interior.
With cold air advection and decent radiational cooling...lows tonight will drop
into the middle and upper 30s across the interior...in the low to middle
40s most elsewhere...and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in NYC.

Dry and mild on Saturday with highs in the low to middle 60s.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
a cold front and upper-level trough will be approaching the local
area from around the Great Lakes by Saturday night. Will maintain
a dry forecast as the front appears will come through dry. High
pressure builds across the area Sunday into Monday...then offshore
by Tuesday.

On Wednesday a cold front approaches from the West...Crossing the
area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This front may bring rain
showers to the area. High pressure builds back across the area
late Thursday into Friday.

As for temperatures...nighttime temperatures will be near normal
through the extended period. Daytime highs will also be near
normal through Thursday...then slightly below normal on Friday.

&&

Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
low pressure south of Nova Scotia this morning will track towards
the Canadian Maritimes today as high pressure slowly builds from
the west.

Area of rain will move across eastern terminals this morning.
Tempo MVFR conds are likely with this and even perhaps at a few of
the NYC terminals through 15z or so. VFR expected thereafter
however...cyclonic flow will keep a broken stratocu deck between 3500
and 6000 feet around today.

Northwest flow/gusts pick up again 14z-15z and continues through 22z
before diminishing.

..NY metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http://www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: MVFR possible 12z-15z. Gusts may develop an
hour or so earlier than forecast. Directions expected to remain
right of 310 magnetic.

Klga fcster comments: MVFR possible 12z-15z. Gusts may develop an
hour or so earlier than forecast. Directions expected to remain
right of 310 magnetic.

Kewr fcster comments: MVFR possible 12z-15z. Gusts may develop an
hour or so earlier than forecast. Directions expected to remain
right of 310 magnetic.

Kteb fcster comments: MVFR possible 12z-15z. Gusts may develop an
hour or so earlier than forecast.

Khpn fcster comments: MVFR possible with rain showers 12z-14z. Gusts may
develop an hour or so earlier than forecast.

Kisp fcster comments: MVFR possible with rain showers 12z-15z. Gusts may
develop an hour or so earlier than forecast.

Outlook for 12z Sat through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
low pressure east of Cape Cod will move NE in the Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley.

Wind gusts have fallen below 25 knots on Li sound/Li bays/New York Harbor.
Therefore...will cancel the Small Craft Advisory that was in
effect for those waters. Small Craft Advisory conds continue on the ocean waters
through late this morning...and then tranquil conds on tap through
Saturday.

Below Small Craft Advisory conditions expected on Saturday night.
Tight pressure gradient behind a dry cold front will likely lead
to Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters during the day
on Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds and seas subside Monday into
Monday night. Next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will
be late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

Hydrology...
no significant widespread precipitation expected through the first
half of next week.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for anz350-
353-355.

&&

$$
Synopsis...fig/mps
near term...mps
short term...mps
long term...figure
aviation...24
marine...fig/mps
hydrology...fig/mps

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