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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1046 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Synopsis...
low pressure east of Cape Cod will continue to track northeast
into the Canadian Maritimes today as high pressure builds into the
Ohio Valley. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across the
region Saturday night. High pressure builds across the area later
Sunday through Monday...then offshore by Tuesday. Another cold
front will move across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night.
High pressure builds back across the area Thursday into Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
forecast on track. Most of the precipitation has ended...with just
a few left over isolated light showers.

With abundant middle-level moisture...skies will remain cloudy
throughout the day...partially clearing late in the day.

The pressure gradient tightens up between the departing low and high
pressure building to the west...and northwest winds will range from 15-20 miles per hour
with gusts up to 25 miles per hour.

Highs top off in the low to middle 60s...and possibly into the upper
60s across the urbanized parts of NE New Jersey.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
gradient relaxes tonight...and skies clear out. Northwest winds will
diminish to 5-10 miles per hour...and to 5 miles per hour or less across the interior.
With cold air advection and decent radiational cooling...lows tonight will drop
into the middle and upper 30s across the interior...in the low to middle
40s most elsewhere...and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in NYC.

Dry and mild on Saturday with highs in the low to middle 60s.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
a cold front and upper-level trough will be approaching the local
area from around the Great Lakes by Saturday night. Will maintain
a dry forecast as the front appears will come through dry. High
pressure builds across the area Sunday into Monday...then offshore
by Tuesday.

On Wednesday a cold front approaches from the West...Crossing the
area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This front may bring rain
showers to the area. High pressure builds back across the area
late Thursday into Friday.

As for temperatures...nighttime temperatures will be near normal
through the extended period. Daytime highs will also be near
normal through Thursday...then slightly below normal on Friday.

&&

Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
low pressure south of Nova Scotia will track towards the Canadian
Maritimes today as high pressure slowly builds from the west.

Tempo MVFR conds are possible eastern terminals until early afternoon
as moisture continues to wrap around distant Atlantic low. VFR
expected regionwide by late afternoon...however...cyclonic flow
will keep a broken stratocu deck between 3500 and 6000 feet until
tonight.

Northwest flow/gusts to 25kt through 22z before diminishing after sunset. High
confidence of wind remaining right of 310 magnetic.

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: high confidence in wind remaining right of 310
magnetic.

Klga fcster comments: high confidence in wind remaining right of 310
magnetic.

Kewr fcster comments: high confidence in wind remaining right of 310
magnetic.

Kteb fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.

Khpn fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.

Kisp fcster comments: amendments possible in ceilings through early afternoon.

Outlook for 12z Sat through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
low pressure east of Cape Cod will move NE in the Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley.

Have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 4pm on the ocean
waters...as wind gusts and seas remain above Small Craft Advisory levels.
Conditions will continue to improve through the afternoon and
could fall below Small Craft Advisory levels before 4pm. Then...tranquil conditions
are expected for tonight and Saturday. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions remain
on the rest of the waters.

Below Small Craft Advisory conditions expected on Saturday night.
Tight pressure gradient behind a dry cold front will likely lead
to Small Craft Advisory conditions over the waters during the day
on Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds and seas subside Monday into
Monday night. Next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will
be late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west.

&&

Hydrology...
no significant widespread precipitation expected through the first
half of next week.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for anz350-
353-355.

&&

$$
Synopsis...fig/mps
near term...BC/mps
short term...mps
long term...figure
aviation...ird
marine...BC/fig
hydrology...fig/mps

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