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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
204 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

high pressure builds over New England today then moves off the New
England coast tonight and Thursday. Weak low pressure develops
off the North Carolina coast and heads northeast Thursday night
into Friday. A cold front will approach the area Friday and move
through early on Saturday. High pressure will build in late on
Saturday. High pressure pushes off the New England coast on
Sunday. A frontal system will affect the area for the start of
the new week into the middle of next week.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
forecast update to reflect latest observations. No significant
changes made. Surface high pressure over eastern Canada continues
to slowly build south into New England today. Aloft...weak
ridging builds with mainly weak zonal flow. A persistent easterly
flow around the high will keep much of the region cloudy through
the day. As a result temperatures remain below seasonal normals

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches of
southeastern Suffolk County.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
continued weak zonal flow across the Continental United States
tonight into Thursday will allow for a cutoff low over the
southeastern states to meander...drifting slowly toward the coast.
At the surface the high moves off the New England coast with an
easterly flow continuing. The high noses southward along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians. Meanwhile the weak surface low or
inverted trough moves slowly up the coast. With the high nosing down
along the Appalachians and uncertainty as to where the cutoff low
will go...will keep the area dry through Thursday.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
this period starts off with a general zonal flow aloft over the
northeast...while over the southeast u... cut off low will
meander over that part of the country. This will help to induce a
weak surface low just off the North Carolina coast along a stalled
frontal boundary. Meanwhile...high pressure at the surface will
nose into our area...reminiscent of a damming situation in the
winter. There is a good deal of uncertainty in both operational
and ensemble models with the track of the low as it tracks
northeast along the frontal boundary. Did note that the 00z European model (ecmwf)
did come more in line with the 00z GFS...with only the northern
fringes of the system making its way into southern portions of the
area. As such....will only make minor changes in the forecast for
Thursday night into Friday...decreasing probability of precipitation somewhat. Only light
rain is forecast with this system.

A cold front will approach the area late on Friday...and push
through early on Saturday with high pressure building in behind it.
Mainly dry conditions for Saturday...with just a slight chance for
showers early in the day as the front moves through.

The center of high pressure quickly moves over northern New England
late Saturday night and pushes into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday.
With dry conditions through Sunday night.

A cold front approaches the area from the west on Monday. Unsettled
weather could affect the region into the midweek period.

As for temperatures...Friday will be warmer than Thursday...but
still below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will be more
seasonable on the 70s region-wide. Slightly cooler
conditions expected on Sunday as cooler air works in behind the cold
front. Temperatures rebound back to seasonable levels for next week.


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure builds down from southeastern Canada through this
afternoon...then begins to gradually retreat towards the northeast
into Thursday.

Generally VFR through the taf period. Exception is possibility of
some patchy radiation fog at kswf/khpn after 06z. Ceilings should
lower down to around 5000 feet from late tonight into Thursday
morning from S to north.

Winds shift from NE to east to southeast this afternoon...exception is at
kgon/kjfk where S seabreeze has developed that should back to the
southeast this afternoon. Winds throughout back to the east...then east-northeast-NE
tonight. Wind speeds generally around 10 knots today...then less
than 10 knots tonight. On Thursday wind speeds increase to around
10-15kt near the coast and remain 10 knots or less inland.

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at:
http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Klga fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Kewr fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Kteb fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Khpn fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Kisp fcster comments: timing in changes in wind speed and
direction could be off +/- 2-3 hours.

Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday afternoon...VFR.
Thursday night-Friday morning...VFR possibly dropping to MVFR
late with areas of rain developing mainly at southern terminals.
Friday afternoon-Saturday morning...spotty MVFR possible with
a slight chance of showers/tstms. North winds g 15-20 knots possible
Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon-Sunday night...VFR. North winds g 15-20 knots
possible Saturday afternoon.
Monday...MVFR or lower possible in any showers/thunderstorms.


high pressure remains north of the forecast waters today into
Thursday. A weak low off the southeast coast early Thursday tracks a
little farther north during Thursday. Wind remains from the east
today through Thursday...strengthening Thursday with the low moving
into the high. Wind and seas remain below small craft today and
tonight. Seas on the ocean waters may build to small craft levels
during Thursday with the increased easterly flow.

Waves should subside to below Small Craft Advisory criteria Thursday night.
Thereafter...sub-sca conditions expected through Sunday night. Waves
build on a southerly flow on Monday to above 5 feet as a cold front
approaches from the west.


dry through Thursday. No significant precipitation is expected
Thursday night through Sunday. Widespread significant
precipitation is then possible starting Monday.


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.


near term...BC/jp/met
short term...met

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