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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
152 am EDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Synopsis...
a diffuse warm front gradually moves north into the region
through Tuesday. A cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday...followed by a series of low pressure systems. High
pressure returns for the end of the work week and into the weekend
with a return to unsettled weather for the start of next week.

&&

Near term /through today/...
some slight adjustments were made to temperatures by increasing
them by 1-2 degrees for some locations along with lowering probability of precipitation
for showers as well as reducing the time window for patchy fog.
There is a little more of a temperature and dewpoint spread to overcome.
Otherwise...no other remarkable changes made to the forecast
database.

Warm front lies across south-central New Jersey and is lifting to the
north. Can be noted by slightly warmer temps/dewpoints...but
maritime tropical airmass spreads along the coast and into
the local area with surface dewpoints around 70. Temperatures at some
locations even increased by one degree over the past hour.

Have confined any mention of probability of precipitation to far western zones overnight.

Some fog is possible with the moist onshore flow. Used "patchy"
wording as coverage looks to be more limited with a few degrees
of temperature and dewpoint spread. The possible exception is the South
Shore of Long Island. Narre-tl is pointing for the Jersey coast.
With it being climatologically unfavorable for fog...will hold off
on anything more than patchy. From observations...looks like this
is shaping to be more of a low stratus versus fog event.

&&

Short term /tonight through 6 PM Wednesday/...
warm and humid with significant cloud cover.

With a maritime tropical air mass over the region, the approach
of the weakening short wave continues to have the potential to
generate showers and an isolated thunderstorm...especially Tuesday
afternoon. The highest probability of precipitation are northwest where nwp and 15z sref mean are
focused. Instability is better than today with forecast surface based
convective available potential energy of 500-1500 j/kg (highest in gfs).

Forecast highs should be a few degrees above normal and are close to
the slightly warmer NAM MOS.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at ocean beaches on
Tuesday.

&&

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
cold front slowly works its way across the area Wednesday and should
be south of the region by Wednesday evening. There will be abundant
low level moisture across the region with surface dew points around 70
and precipitable waters over 2". As a result...can expect heavy rain at
times...and with training of cells...at least minor urban/small
stream flooding is possible.

There is little consensus among the models as to timing and strength
of storms...so will keep probability of precipitation capped at chance for now with nest
chances in the afternoon/evening. 12z NAM has little quantitative precipitation forecast over the
area...generally less than 1/4"...while the 12z European model (ecmwf) is similar in
terms of less than 1/4" widespread quantitative precipitation forecast...areal coverage is more
widespread than the NAM. The 12z GFS develops surface low pressure over the
Delaware-Maryland-Virginia Wednesday evening...and if it were to track close enough to
southern portions of NE New Jersey...NYC...and Long Island...those areas
could pick up around an inch Wednesday night while the other models
have the region drying out. Mainly...this appears to be due to a
strong 500 mb shortwave noted in the GFS passing through the
region...while the European model (ecmwf) has a weaker shortwave much farther south.
This is a fluid situation...and further model runs will be needed.

Conds dry out by Thursday morning...but then another wave of low
pressure moves through the region in the afternoon...touching off some
more showers/storms in the afternoon/evening.

High pressure then builds in thereafter with dry conds for Thursday
through Sunday. Temperatures will be mild with highs generally in the 80s
and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.

The high moves offshore on Sunday...and the next wave of low pressure
approaches for Sunday night/Monday.

&&

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a warm front approaches from the southwest overnight and lifts
north of the region today.

Overnight...MVFR conditions lower to IFR. Some LIFR conditions
possible...with best chances at kgon...isp and kbdr.

Chance of showers from 13z-20z today...especially along and west of
a klga-kswf line. Chance of thunder is also possible...however
chances are too low to include in the taf at this time.

Winds will be out of the southeast...generally 10 knots or less through
midday. This afternoon...some gusts into the teens or even lower
20 knots possible east of NYC.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Sat...
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR conds possible.
Wednesday...shra/tstms possible with MVFR or lower conditions at times.
Thu-Fri...chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions at times.
Sat...VFR.

&&

Marine...
rather tranquil through Tuesday...though winds are expected to
increase. Fog could affect the waters late tonight and Tuesday
morning along the South Shore of Long Island with visibility
reduced to 1 to 3 nm...and possibly below 1 nm at times.

A cold front moves across the waters on Wednesday...followed by a
series of low pressure waves through Thursday night. This will keep
at least a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. High pressure
builds in for the end of the week and the weekend with dry conds.

The gradient over the waters should remain relaxed enough to keep
conds below Small Craft Advisory levels during this time.

&&

Hydrology...
Summer convection is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday (more likely)
aftns. With precipitable water values near 2 inches...heavy
rainfall is possible. With the convection also being rather slow
moving...localized urban and poor drainage flooding could
occur...with a low probability of flash flooding.

This hazards is highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook text
product from Fairfield and Nassau counties on west...including NYC
for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mps/tongue
near term...jm/jp/tongue
short term...tongue
long term...mps
aviation...British Columbia
marine...mps/tongue
hydrology...mps/tongue

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