Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
539 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014
dry and blustery weather tonight will be followed by sunny/windy
conditions on Thursday. Low pressure and an associated frontal
system will impact the region late Friday into Saturday with a
period of showers. This will be followed by high pressure bringing
mainly dry and seasonable weather sun/Mon...before unsettled and
cool weather may return Tuesday into Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
a mixture of clouds and sun covered the tri-state region as of
late afternoon with northwest wind gusts between 30 and 40 miles per hour.
Model cross sections indicate that much drier air will be working
into the region this evening. Expect skies to become mostly clear
this evening. While winds will diminish a bit...they will remain
gusty overnight especially in the typically prone locales in the
cold advection pattern. Given the winds staying up
overnight...went with low temperatures a bit above guidance numbers
mainly in the 30s to around 40.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
A sunny...windy and mild day in store for the region. BUFKIT
soundings indicate northwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts
around 40 miles per hour. Its not out of the question that a few locations
touch Wind Advisory criteria...but most locations will probably
remain just below. Nonetheless...later shifts will have to monitor
this potential closely. A super adiabatic atmosphere should allow
highs to reach in the lower 60s across much of the region...but
it will feel cooler given the strong winds.
Diminishing winds and mainly clear skies will result in a good
night of radiational cooling. Low temperatures will bottom out mainly in
the upper 20s and 30s...except milder in the urban heat islands
around New York City.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
Friday and Saturday...
A cold front will approach the region Friday...but most of the day
should be dry with highs in the upper 50s on the island and lower
to middle 60s elsewhere. Decent shot at a period of rain showers
Friday night into early Saturday morning in the warm advection
pattern head of the next front. The cold front will cross the
region during the day Saturday. It may trigger some afternoon
showers and perhaps enough instability for isolated thunder.
Sunday and Monday...
Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday into Monday
as high pressure noses in from the north.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Low confidence but pattern may turn unseasonably cool and showery
at times. This a result of high pressure to our north and low
pressure to the south. Its certainly not a lock though as this is
6 to 7 days in the future...but a period of unseasonably cool/wet
weather may occur.
Aviation /22z Wednesday through Monday/...
Northwest wind gusts of 35 knots expected into early this evening.
Winds diminish a bit tonight...gusts around 30 knots...but will
remain gusty. Northwest winds pick back up at 30 to 40 knots by middle
to late morning on Thursday.
New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kewr fcster comments: winds right around 310 true through tonight.
Kjfk fcster comments: winds right around 310 true through tonight.
Klga fcster comments: winds mostly to the right of 310 true through
Kteb fcster comments: winds mostly to the right of 310 true through
Khpn fcster comments: winds right around 310 true through tonight.
Kisp fcster comments: winds mostly to the right of 310 true through
Outlook for 18z Thursday through Monday...
Thursday...gusty northwest wind around 30kt. Gusts ending during early evening.
Friday...VFR. Chance nighttime -shra and MVFR.
Sat...VFR. Chance -shra and MVFR.
Sun...VFR. Northwest g20-25kt.
northwest gales continue into Thursday with a strong pressure gradient
between deepening low pressure tracking slowly east of New England
and high pressure building in from the Midwest.
Winds and seas will fall below small craft levels late Thursday
night into early Friday morning. Small craft conditions are expected
once again Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves across the
area waters. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return late Sunday into Monday.
Thursday...northwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts around
40 miles per hour are expected. Minimum afternoon relative humidities are
expected to drop below 20 percent.
After coordinating with fire weather contacts have upgraded to red
flag warning/S on Thursday for northeast New Jersey...southeast
New York and all of Long Island. Across southern Connecticut held
onto the Fire Weather Watch...where there was some rain today
especially across eastern portions of the state. However...its
possible this area may need to be upgraded to a warning given the
strong winds/low relative humidities expected. Plenty of time
though for the midnight shift to review.
there are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for ctz005>012.
New York...red flag warning from 9 am to 8 PM EDT Thursday for nyz067>075-
New Jersey...red flag warning from 9 am to 8 PM EDT Thursday for njz002>004-
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Thursday for anz330-335-338-340-