Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1054 PM EDT Monday Sep 1 2014
weak high pressure remains over the region tonight in the wake of a
surface trough. A cold front then approaches during Tuesday before
passing through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for the latter
half of the week. Another cold front will impact the region this
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
some minor adjustments were made with temperatures and dewpoints.
Slightly bumped up temperatures with higher dewpoints in place and
increasing clouds from the west well ahead of next upper level
trough. Patchy fog already starting to develop and expecting more
of this towards daybreak Tuesday with low levels staying moist.
Multiple mesoscale models indicate mostly dry conditions through
the rest of the night. Drier upper levels and less shear along with
stable conditions will limit any shower development. At this point
showers were removed for the forecast covering the rest of tonight
with any probability of showers being at most around 10 percent.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
cold front approaches during the day Tuesday. A pre-frontal trough
ahead of it develops near our western zones. Shower/thunderstorm threat
begins in the afternoon along this trough...and ends for most spots
overnight when the trailing cold front passes through. Capped probability of precipitation
in the chance category. Parameters during the afternoon and early
evening support the potential of thunderstorms with strong wind
gusts. Large hail would be less of possibility due to relatively
high wbz/freezing level heights. Thunderstorm strength diminishes after
early evening with less cape in spite of better lift from the
passing cold front. Precipitable waters still rather high...so heavy downpours
possible in any shower.
Above normal temperatures with muggy conditions continue through
this period. With 850mb temperatures of 17-18c...partly to mostly sunny
conditions for most of the day and a SW flow...expecting parts of NE
New Jersey to reach into the low-middle 90s...with low 90s in the city and a
good portion of the lower Hudson Valley. Most other spots expected
to end up at 85-90. Regarding heat advisory concerns in the
city...although it appears that a decent portion of the city will
reach a heat index of at least 95 for an hour or two tomorrow
afternoon...indices had failed to reach 95 Monday afternoon. No
advisories will therefore be posted as per local policy.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
cold front offshore will continue to push east on Wednesday as high
pressure builds in. Dry conditions are expected through Friday as
the center of the high moves over the region and off the East Coast
by Thursday while aloft there will be a rather zonal pattern.
Humidity levels during this period will ease up a bit as dewpoints
drop to the lower 60s on Wednesday...with some upper 50s dewpoints
possible on Thursday. However...they creep back up towards the lower
and middle 60s again on Friday on the return flow with the high
A cold front will approach the area Friday night into
Saturday...pushing offshore sometime Saturday night. There is some
model consensus on pushing the cold front offshore Saturday
night...but there are differences thereafter. The 00z European model (ecmwf) stalls
the front just offshore and there would be a chance for Post-frontal
rain through Sunday night. The 12z GFS and CMC keep the system
progressive...ending the rain Saturday night...keeping Sunday dry.
GFS ensemble mean is actually more progressive with the cold
front...pushing it offshore during the day Saturday...but also ends
it Saturday night. Also...models differ in development and placement
of low pressure along the frontal boundary...which lead to large
differences in placement of any heavy rainfall. Although the GFS is
more progressive...the front has slowed down significantly from the
previous 06z run. So...given uncertainty will keep at least slight
chance probability of precipitation in for Sunday morning...drying out by the afternoon.
Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday.
Thereafter...below normal temperatures expected as a Continental
polar airmass builds in.
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a surface trough will dissipate as it moves east overnight. A
cold front approaches late Tuesday.
MVFR/IFR stratus/fog likely along eastern terminals...possible
across interior terminals.
Any stratus/fog should Burns off in the morning...with VFR conds
Light SW winds tonight into Tuesday morning...giving way to
afternoon seabreeze development along the coast.
Increasing chance for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain Tuesday evening across NYC
terminals and to the west & northwest with approaching cold front.
Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Friday...
Tuesday night...mainly VFR except for scattered evening/nighttime shra/tsra.
Wednesday-Friday night...VFR conditions are expected.
Sat...sub VFR possible in scattered shra/tsra.
sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected on the waters through the forecast
period with a relatively weak pressure gradient most of the time.
There could be showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night...and again late
Friday into Saturday as a front approaches.
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday/Tuesday night would likely result
in no more than localized minor urbanized/small stream flooding.
No hydrologic issues expected Wednesday through the weekend.