Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
729 am EDT Monday Mar 17 2014
low pressure passes well south and east of the area today. High
pressure moves builds in from the north tonight and Tuesday. Low
pressure approaches from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
cold front associated with the low moves through the region
Wednesday night. High pressure builds in behind the low Thursday
and Thursday night. Another low pressure system affects the region
Friday night into Saturday. Polar high pressure builds back into
the region to end the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
temperatures holding nearly steady last few hours under clouds and
northeast flow. High pressure keeping the snow suppressed to the
south...over the ocean waters. Adjusted temperatures...dew
points...and probability of precipitation through this morning.
An area of low pressure will pass well south and east of the
region today. Meanwhile...high pressure will remain north of the
region...keeping enough dry air in place to keep conditions dry.
This is supported by the 00z okx radiosonde observation data as well as the 00z model
data. 00z radiosonde observation data showing very dry air in the lowest 7kft. High
resolution model guidance...including the hrrr...rap...Stony Brook
WRF as well as the 00z GFS and NAM agree with keeping this dry air
in place to limit any substantial snow from reaching the surface
across southern zones. Have removed any mention of snow from the
forecast...except across our ocean waters.
Despite the dry weather...it will remain mostly cloudy/overcast for
much of the day today with the low in the vicinity of the region.
With the combination of a northerly flow and little
sunshine...expect a cold day. Highs will only reach the lower and
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
the area of high pressure north of the region will sinks southward
and move over the region though the short term...keeping conditions
dry and clearing sky conditions. The clearing skies and diminishing
winds will result in good radiational cooling. Overnight lows will
fall into the teens across the interior...and into the lower to
middle 20s across coastal locations.
Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday as temperatures climb into
the upper 30s to near 40. Expect Tuesday to be a mostly sunny day.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
a rather progressive northerly flow will be the dominate feature
through the extended period with a couple of shortwaves moving
through the region. The first system moves out of the Pacific
northwest today and tracks across the northern United States through
Wednesday. The surface low moves north of the area Wednesday night
with the associated cold front passing through. Warm advection ahead
of the system will raise temperatures and low level thickness.
However...with the onset of light precipitation Wednesday
morning...some light snow showers will be possible across the lower
Hudson Valley into portions of northeastern New Jersey. Showers will
become likely Wednesday into Wednesday evening. There is little to
no surface or elevated instability...therefore thunder not forecast.
Cold advection sets up behind the front for Thursday. With
downsloping wind and sunshine temperatures will be a few degrees
higher than Wednesday.
Southern high pressure builds briefly Thursday and Thursday night
before weakening Friday as the next northern stream moves out of the
northern plains. Warm frontal rain and showers possible with the
system Friday night. The low moves across the region Saturday and
Saturday night. The atmosphere will be warm enough for rain once
Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low Saturday night into
Sunday with cold air returning.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
high confidence VFR for the period.
Overcast middle level clouds persist into the afternoon...scattering out as the
low heads out to sea. A few high level clouds will linger into the
Winds NE 10-15 kts into the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 kts possible
this morning and early afternoon...will include as tempo. Winds become
light from the NE through the coming night...generally 5-8 kts
New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kewr fcster comments: winds will hover between 020-040 (true)
through the period. Occasional gusts to 20 kts possible this morning.
The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.
Kjfk fcster comments: winds will hover between 020-040 (true)
through the period. Occasional gusts 20-25 kts possible this morning.
Klga fcster comments: winds will hover between 020-040 (true)
through the period. Occasional gusts to 20 kts possible this morning.
Kteb fcster comments: winds will hover between 010-030 (true)
through the period. Gusts may be more sporadic in
nature...generally 18-20 kts.
Khpn fcster comments: winds will hover between 010-030 (true)
through the period. Brief gusts possible 12-15z.
Kisp fcster comments: occasional gusts this morning 20-25 kts.
Outlook for 12z Tuesday through Friday...
Wednesday-Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible in -ra. Possible period of wintry
mix inland Wednesday morning and late Wednesday night. Southeast wind g20-25kt during the
day. Possible low level wind shear issues Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR. West wind g20-25kt possible.
seas on the ocean beginning to build in the persistent northeast
flow...which has increased as low pressure deepens and gradient
increases between the low and high pressure over upstate New York
and New England.
Low pressure will pass well south of the area waters today. A
tightening pressure gradient will remain over the waters with the
low to the south...and an area of high pressure to the north.
Winds are gradually increasing this morning and Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected to develop by morning. There is a possibility that a few
gusts reach gale...however confidence is low.
Winds begin to diminish tonight...however waves are expected to
remain around 5 feet tonight and Tuesday...due to easterly swell.
Because of this...we will be extending the Small Craft Advisory on
the ocean waters through Tuesday
On the non-ocean waters...conditions are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels.
Small craft seas on the ocean will likely continue into Tuesday
night with a persistent easterly flow. As low pressure approaches
from the west Wednesday a strengthening southerly flow will develop
and seas on the ocean will build into Wednesday night. With warmer
air moving over the cooler ocean waters little mixing is expected
and gusts should remain below small craft level.
A cold front moves through the waters Wednesday night and as colder
air moves in some gusts to small craft levels will be possible by
late Thursday and then continue into Friday. As high pressure builds
Friday and cold advection ends gusts will fall below small craft
levels late Friday. Small craft seas on the ocean subside late
Friday into Friday night.
no significant precipitation is expected through the week.
the National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio transmitter that serves the New York City
metropolitan area remains out of service due to radio frequency
interference with the U.S Coast Guard transmitter.
For more information see the following public information
statement (all lower case):
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for anz350-353-355.
short term...British Columbia