Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
626 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
high pressure over the region will drift eastward through
Friday...giving way to a cold front late Friday night...stalling to
the south Saturday. High pressure builds late this weekend into
early next week. A complex storm system will approach from the west
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high clouds were moving in from the west well ahead of a trough
over the southwest...as the ridge has weakened and the flow has
become flat from the southwest. Meanwhile low clouds remain to
the east across southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island.
Updated sky and temperatures and dew points for current conditions
Strong high pressure centered south of the Canadian maritime and
extending into the northeast and middle Atlantic will shift slowly
east through today. A southeasterly flow across southeastern
Connecticut and eastern Long Island was bringing in low level
moisture under an inversion resulting in strato cumulus. Increasing
moisture may result in some light drizzle across the eastern
sections by this afternoon with increasing clouds farther to the
west. With weak lift and the lowest levels somewhat dry possible
drizzle does not occur.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
with the high shifting to the east tonight an onshore flow develops
across the entire region...and will continue with the slight chance
probability of precipitation for light drizzle through the overnight. The flow does become
more south to southwesterly toward Friday morning and the chance of
drizzle may end before 10z. The high continues to weaken Friday into
Friday night as a shortwave passes to the north late Friday night
into Saturday...and as a cold front moves slowly southward across
the region by Saturday morning. Frontal lift will allow for a low
end chance of showers Saturday...mainly just behind the front.
Developing zonal flow Saturday and Saturday night will stall out the
front south of the region Saturday. However the front should be
far enough south for precipitation to be just south later
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
due to upper trough/steering flow...most model solutions support
cold front remaining nearly stationary just south of the area as
high pressure builds to the north Sunday and Monday. A few showers
along the front may clip portions of the area...but feel most of the
region remains dry.
As the upper trough moves east...weak ridge builds temporarily
Monday into Tuesday before northwest/Upper Middle west trough tracks east
toward the Great Lakes region.
It appears that low pressure will develop along a frontal boundary
that extends from Texas/la northward toward in/OH. This low pressure
deepens in time early next week as it moves northeast ahead of the
Timing and positional differences are noted...but with retreating
high pressure...will ramp up probability of precipitation late Tuesday through Tuesday night for
now...much like previous forecast.
Above normal temperatures Friday should give way to closer to normal
readings Saturday through early next week. Followed blended models
data which was reasonably close to wpc guidance.
Aviation /11z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure retreats to the northeast into Friday morning.
Most likely VFR through the taf period. There is a chance for
kisp/kbdr/kgon and a low chance for kjfk to have ceilings around
3000 feet in the afternoon/early evening.
Light and variable winds through the morning. Winds become southeast-south-southeast at
less than 10 knots this afternoon...then light and variable again
Outlook for 12z Friday through Monday...
Friday...chance MVFR Friday morning...otherwise VFR. SW winds
g15-20kt possible Friday afternoon.
Friday night-Saturday night. MVFR or lower possible...with a
chance of showers. North-NE winds g15-20kt possible Saturday
Sunday-Sunday night...low chance of MVFR...most likely VFR.
Monday...VFR. Easterly winds g15-20kt possible.
no changes at this time to wind or seas.
For the coastal ocean waters...winds will run 15 knots or less
through Monday. Due to a combination of swell and winds...seas
could reach 5 feet or so on the coastal ocean waters Friday-Saturday
night for all zones...and possibly Sunday-Monday as well east of
For the non-ocean zones...a relaxed pressure gradient will keep
winds at 10 knots or less through Monday.
no significant precipitation is expected through early next
long term...precipitable water