Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1010 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
cold front pushes through tonight...with high pressure building in
the wake through the weekend. A frontal system approaches early
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
isolated showers still dotting the area along the cold front
pushing through. Minimal instability still over portions of
northern New Jersey could lead to isolated showers through 06z with a weak
vorticity maximum passing through eastern PA/New Jersey over the next couple of
hours. Light showers over CT will continue to dissipate as they
push into a more stable airmass. Northwest flow behind the front bringing
in cooler...drier air should lead to dry conditions for the second
half of the night.
Temperatures slow to taper off with the cooler air taking its time to
move in so have upped the temperatures a couple degrees to reflect latest
observation. However...still anticipating forecasted lows to occur late
tonight so will maintain the overnight lows.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
northwest flow with dry weather and clear skies. Subsidence should limit cumulus
development during the day. Daytime temperatures likely to be warmest
along the S coast due to the deeper mixing on northwest flow. The met
guidance was closest to this scenario. Diurnal spread of close to
30 degrees possible Thursday night across the outlying areas where
A high risk for rip current development along the Atlantic Ocean
facing beaches continues through Thursday evening.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
dry conditions expected on Friday and through the weekend...as high
pressure slides offshore. The next chance of precipitation comes
later on Sunday and into Monday...when a frontal system approaches
and crosses the area. The increase in moisture ahead of the
front...could produce showers and thunderstorms...mainly across NYC
north and west.
Monday night through the middle of the week...dry conditions return
as a weak high pressure builds back across the area...although...
diurnal convection will be possible each day.
Temperatures will start out near normal on Friday and
Saturday...then above normal on Sunday and through the middle of the
Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
a cold front will push across the terminals tonight. While most of
the rain has ended...a few additional showers may develop and move
through the region. The front will moves east of the region after
Otherwise...mainly VFR conditions are expected. South to southwest
wind around 10 knots ahead of the front shifts to the west and
then northwest behind the front around 10 knots. Gusts develop up to
20 knots during Thursday morning.
Outlook for 03z Thursday through Monday...
Sun-Mon...VFR. A chance of MVFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms from Sun afternoon through Monday.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect with seas on the ocean
remaining above 5 feet through at least Thursday night. Peak seas of around 8 feet
expected Thursday morning...resulting in dangerous conditions around area
inlets. Otherwise...a few gusts to 25 knots cannot be completely
ruled out late tonight through Thursday behind the cold front on the ocean. Maximum
winds to 20 knots expected elsewhere at this time.
Quiet conditions across the area waters on Friday...as high pressure
builds in from the west...then moves east over the weekend. Seas
increase to Small Craft Advisory levels on Sunday night and into
Monday...ahead of a frontal system. Seas fall back to below Small
Craft Advisory levels on Monday night and remain through the middle
of the week.
no widespread significant rainfall resulting in hydrologic issues is
forecasted through Sunday. Scattered convection on Monday may produce
heavy downpours...with potential for localized urban/poor drainage
widespread 4 feet waves and dangerous rip currents have been
reported during the day today. Conditions will only get worse through
Thursday morning...before the swell retreats into the North Atlantic. As a
result...a high surf advisory remains in effect through Thursday. Although
waves will likely remain blw the 7 feet high surf criteria into
perhaps the evening...dangerous rips will continue. Based on the
offshore swell...the highest waves should arrive Thursday morning. The Thursday
morning high tide cycle is therefore expected to present the greatest
threat for minor beach erosion and wash-overs.
New York...high surf advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for nyz075-080-081-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
Thursday for anz350-353-355.