Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
339 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
a weak cold front will move across the region tonight. High
pressure then builds into the region through Wednesday. A weak
front moves through the region Wednesday night...with a stronger
cold front moving through Thursday night. High pressure will then
build in from the north for the weekend into early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
a weak cold front passes through the region tonight. There is not
much upper level support with the front...so expecting a dry
forecast. Light northerly winds develop behind the passage of the
front...and surface dewpoints will drop a bit...generally from the middle
to upper 60s to the low to middle 60s. With light winds and high
relative humidity levels...some patchy fog will develop across the
interior and across eastern Long Island late tonight and through
Followed a mav/met blend for temperatures tonight. Expect lows to
drop into the 60s and lower 70s. Middle 70s are expected in and around
There is a moderate risk for rip currents at ocean beaches this
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
high pressure builds over the middle-Atlantic through the short term
period. Expect a better chance afternoon seabreezes on Tuesday as
surface winds will be light during the day. Temperatures will once
again top off in the upper 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in
the low to middle 60s. The heat index should remain around 90 on
Tuesday in NYC.
Tuesday night will remain clear with temperatures falling into the
60s and lower 70s. Middle 70s are expected in the NYC metropolitan.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
a weak southern stream shortwave will move south of the region late
Wednesday...followed by glancing shortwave energy from a strong northern
stream upper low Thursday. Models are in decent agreement with
phasing these energies well east of the NE US...with upper ridging
building into the region for the weekend through early next week.
Late Summer heat and humidity will continue Wednesday and Thursday. A weak
trough and shortwave energy moving into the region late in the day
Wednesday...may be enough to setoff an isolated shower/thunderstorm off
the higher terrain of the interior. Stronger Canadian cold front
approaches from the north late Thursday in the wake of shortwave
energy digging southeast through the Canadian Maritimes. This will bring
potential of isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms late Thursday into
Thursday night as the front sag south. Day time highs will be in the
lower 90s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values approaching 95
degrees across NYC and urban NE New Jersey.
Canadian high pressure builds south-southwest across the region Friday into
Saturday. This will advect a cooler and drier Canadian maritime
airmass into the region for Friday and Sat. Although humidity levels
should be in the 50s...gusty east winds on Friday may pose a
enhanced concern for spread of brush fires due to high kbdi values
and available fine fuels. Highs are still expected to run near to
slightly above seasonable...lower 80s to around 85.
Dry conditions are expected through early next week as high pressure
sinks southeast of the region. This will also spell a steady moderation in
humidity and unseasonable warmth through early next week.
Drought will continue to develop region wide...but especially across
Long Island and southern CT through the period with no significant
widespread rainfall in the forecast.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
a weak trough of low pressure remains in the vicinity of the
terminals into this evening. A few showers will be possible across
the lower Hudson Valley through 00z. A weak back door cold front
moves through the terminals 06z to 11z...then moves northeast as a
warm front Tuesday morning.
VFR conditions through the forecast. A brief period of MVFR fog is
possible at kswf late tonight.
This afternoon into early this evening wind will be from the west to
southwest...around 10 knots. After early this evening the wind forecast
becomes more uncertain with the timing of the cold front...and the
shift to the north. Wind could even be light and variable. Sea
breeze development likely Tuesday by midday.
... Metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kjfk fcster comments: the sea breeze moved through around 19z with
the wind south to southwest...around 210...and may go around to true
sea breeze of 180 late this afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 20 knots
possible through 00z.
Klga fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional
gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. The sea breeze is not expected to
reach the terminal. Will be 22z to 23z if the sea breeze does move
through. Low to moderate confidence in the wind forecast.
Kewr fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional
gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon.
Kteb fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn fcster comments: wind may shift to southwest or south with the
sea breeze approach. Possible the sea breeze moves through by 22z.
Kisp fcster comments: sea breeze expected to move through by 20z with
the wind shifting to south southwest...around 210. An occasional
gust up to 20 knots possible. Wind may become true sea breeze direction
190 late this afternoon.
Outlook for 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday night...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes
Thursday-Thursday night...VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
possible. Afternoon sea breezes probable.
Friday...VFR. East-northeast winds g15-20kt.
a weak cold front will move across the area waters
tonight...followed by high pressure. Conditions will remain below
small craft levels through Tuesday night.
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Wednesday with a weak trough in the region and
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
The next chance for Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas is
Friday following the passage of a cold front. Potential exists for
easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots and ocean seas building to 5 to 6 feet
on the ocean...with Small Craft Advisory gusts possible on Li sound and nearshore
no widespread significant rainfall is forecast through next weekend.
near term...British Columbia
short term...British Columbia