Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
745 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a cold front slowly pushes south through the tri state area
tonight. High pressure builds in behind the front and remains in
control through the end of the week. A weak cold front approaches
on Saturday...stalling over or near the area into early next week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
at 22z...observation indicated cold front was extending in a line from
just S of the CT coast to just north of kteb/kcdw. Shower and thunderstorm
activity has diminished across the area early this evening as it
encountered a more stable maritime airmass and has transitioned to
more of a stratiform rain. This widespread rainfall will continue
to push southeast tonight as the front slowly moves through. Rrq of upper
jet has caused additional shower activity to develop over the
Lower/Middle Hudson Valley however...expect this to weaken over the
next few hours as the jet lift to the NE.
Forecast was updated to adjust probability of precipitation based on latest radar imagery
and trends this evening with a decreasing trend overnight. Minor
adjustments also made to T/TD/winds based on latest observation...trends
and guidance.
Guidance was very close with low temperatures and see no reason
to go against it at this time. Lows in the middle 50s across the
interior to lower 60s closer to the coast.
&&
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday/...
high pressure builds in on Wednesday as much drier air moves filters
into the region. Expecting dew points to fall into the upper 40s and
lower 50s with high temperatures slightly below normal in the middle
and upper 70s. May see sea breezes develop at the coast in the
afternoon.
Tranquil conditions will continue into Wednesday night as high
pressure moves overhead. Good radiational cooling conditions will be
observed so forecasting lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across
the interior and middle 50s across Long Island. For New York
City...lows will be in the lower 60s.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches
on Wednesday.
&&
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
global models in decent agreement with the overall upper pattern
during the long term signifying a mean trough gradually giving
way to rising heights.
At the surface...high pressure over the NE and middle Atlantic on Thursday
will move offshore and remain nearly stationary over the western
Atlantic into Sat with a return flow developing. Models are
hinting at isolated convection Friday afternoon/early evening...but am having a
hard time finding a trigger and soundings are indicating a middle
level cap so have removed schc probability of precipitation. A weakening cold front will
approach from the north on Sat...although ec has a more defined
shortwave aloft and is therefore much more aggressive than the
GFS. The front is forecast to stall near or over the local area
Sat night into Tuesday. The potential for mesoscale convective system/mcc's exist if the the
operational ec solution is realized as we will be on the southern
periphery of the northern jet.
As for temperatures...a warming trend is expected with heights building
resulting in more Summer like weather.
&&
Aviation /23z Tuesday through Sunday/...
a cold front just north of Long Island to NYC will continue to
slide south through the terminals this evening. High pressure builds
into the region behind it.
Most of the convection has ended...but scattered showers will
continue until cold front slides south of the terminals by 03z.
Winds will vary from northwest to S until then...as outflow boundaries
from storms briefly shifted winds to the north...and then winds
backed to the S. Will generally expect vrb winds around 5 knots until
front slides through...and then winds become north/NE at 8-10 knots.
Both BUFKIT and MOS guidance indicating MVFR conds developing as
well this evening. MVFR to IFR conds developing across the Hudson
Valley and New England...and NE winds should bring those clouds
down into the local area. Will go ahead and bring MVFR conds to
the terminals between 02-05z. Cannot rule out IFR conds at
khpn/kgon.
North/NE winds increase to 10-15 knots by 10z...and occasional gusts to
to around 20 knots will be possible behind the front from around 10z
to 15z. Winds shift to the S late in the day Wednesday.
... Metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http://www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kjfk fcster comments: MVFR conds from 02-12z. Wind shift from north
to south possible by 20-22z Wednesday.
Klga fcster comments: MVFR conds from 02-12z. Wind shift from north
to south possible after 22z Wednesday.
Kewr fcster comments: MVFR conds from 02-10z. Wind shift from north
to south possible after 22z Wednesday.
Kteb fcster comments: MVFR conds from 02-10z.
Khpn fcster comments: MVFR with occasional IFR conds through 12z.
Kisp fcster comments: MVFR with occasional IFR conds from 02-12z. Wind
shift from north to south possible by 20z
Outlook for 00z Thursday through Sunday...
Wednesday night-Saturday...VFR.
Saturday night-Sunday...chance of rain with MVFR conditions.
&&
Marine...
winds will stay at or below 10 knots tonight over the waters. High pressure
builds in behind a departing cold front on Wednesday...so may see
winds on the ocean gust up to 20 knots through the afternoon. Winds
should subside Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Seas will
remain under Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds and seas are then expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
Hydrology...
there is the potential for up to an additional 1/4 inch of
rainfall tonight...highest over eastern CT and Long Island. Brief
heavy downpours will be possible this evening producing locally
higher amounts. The threat for minor flooding has diminished and
there should not be any additional issues tonight.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.
&&
Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...24/ds
near term...ds
short term...ds
long term...24
aviation...met
marine...24/ds/NV
hydrology...24/ds
