Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
353 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2015
a weak cold front will approaching from the northwest will move
through tonight...followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. A
series of fronts will impact the area early next week.
Several areas of low pressure may impact the area late next week.
Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
latest surface analysis shows surface through over the area...with lifted
indices -2 to -5 c. However...with limited moisture...better middle
level dynamics over New England and weak moisture convergence at
best mainly over CT...have only isolated pop into early evening.
Skies should become mostly clear after sunset if not before as a
weak cold front passes through...and light Post-frontal winds should
lead to good radiational cooling in outlying areas...with lows
55-60. Areas along the immediate coast should remain mostly in the
60s...except lower 70s in NYC.
Rip current risk remains high into early this evening via
continued combo of incoming 3-4 feet long period swells and SW
winds around 15 knots.
Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
weak high pressure will prevail on Sunday...with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures similar to or only a shade less warm than those of
today...with near 90 in vicinity of NYC and NE New Jersey...and middle/upper 80s
elsewhere...slightly higher than a mav/met MOS blend. As the high
settles to the south Sunday night...weak low level warm air and
moisture advection should result in a warmer night...with lows in
the lower 70s for most of Long Island and NYC metropolitan...60s most
elsewhere...and upper 50s only in the valleys of Orange County.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
hot and humid conds on tap for the first half of the new week. A
deep upper trough will dig towards the northeast for the middle to
the end of the week...resulting in cooler and unsettled weather.
Surface high pressure over the area moves offshore on Monday...and a deep SW
flow will result in increasing heat and humidity over the area as a
cold front approaches from the west. Highs on Monday will top off in
the upper 80s across most of the County Warning Area to the low 90s in/around NYC
and the urbanized areas of NE New Jersey. Meanwhile...surface dewpoints will
climb into the middle and upper 60s and may approach 70 along the CT
coast and across eastern Long Island. The heat index will be in the
low to middle 90s throughout the County Warning Area. A few showers/thunderstorms possible
across northwest zones as that cold front approaches...but the bulk of the
activity will hold off until Monday night.
Front comes through by Tuesday morning...and temperatures fall back
somewhat...but will still be several degrees above normal with highs
in the middle 80s across the interior northwest zones...and generally in the
upper 80s to near 90 elsewhere with the warmest temperatures in/around NYC.
Drier air builds into the region as well with dewpoints generally
in the upper 50s to low 60s west o the Hudson River and in the low
to middle 60s elsewhere.
Another cold front comes through the region Tuesday night as a deep
upper trough builds east and will remain along the northeast for the
end of the week and into the weekend. Several shortwaves will rotate
around the base of the trough and through the region during this
time. Meanwhile...surface low pressure will form at the base of the trough.
Latest models have the low staying south of the County Warning Area...resulting in a
mainly dry forecast...and then another low will pass either over or
south of the area over the weekend.
For now...will carry chance probability of precipitation on Thursday...and then again on
Saturday with each passing low. Temperatures during this time look to fall
below normal levels with highs topping off in the upper 70s to low
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
a weak cold front moves through tonight...followed by building high
Expect VFR conditions through Sunday morning. Scattered to broken clouds 5 to
10 kft clear tonight.
Westerly winds veer and lighten behind the cold front by evening.
Light northwest winds become variable overnight.
Better chance for sea breeze development Sunday.
Outlook for 18z sun through Thursday...
Sun afternoon...VFR. SW/S flow.
Monday...gusty S flow. A chance of thunderstorms late.
Monday night-Tue...chance thunderstorms. Cold front passage with S
wind...shifting to west.
Wednesday...VFR. West flow.
Thursday...sub VFR possible in shra/tstms.
buoys were not meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria yet...but should do so late
this afternoon into much of tonight east of Fire Island Inlet...with
seas building to 5 feet.
Increasing SW flow could result in Small Craft Advisory conds on the ocean and the
bays of Long Island Monday into Monday night as a cold front approaches
from the west and passes to the north.
locally heavy rainfall is possible in thunderstorms on late Monday into Monday
night...which could lead to minor poor drainage flooding.
New York...high rip current risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for nyz075-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for anz350-353.