Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
327 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
low pressure northeast of the region continues to depart tonight. A
cold front approaches the region Saturday and moves across the
region Saturday night. High pressure builds across the area
Sunday through Monday...then offshore by Tuesday. Another cold
front will move across the region Wednesday. High pressure builds
back across the area Thursday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as low pressure continues to move away from the region...the
pressure gradient relaxes...and skies clear out. Northwest winds will
diminish to 5-10 miles per hour...and to 5 miles per hour or less across the interior.
With cold air advection and decent radiational cooling...lows
tonight will drop into the middle and upper 30s across the
interior...in the low to middle 40s most elsewhere...and in the upper
40s to lower 50s in NYC.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
weak high pressure remains over the region on Saturday...providing
mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. A cold front will approach
from the west late in the day Saturday...and move across the region
Saturday night. Will continue to go with a dry forecast Saturday
night...however there could be some cloud cover with the front.
Expect high temperatures on Saturday to climb into the 60s...while
Saturday night lows fall into the 40s. Followed a mav/met blend of
guidance for temperatures.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front during Sunday.
Its ridge axis passes through during Monday...and will be offshore
on Tuesday. Dry weather all three days...but breezy on Sunday. High
temperatures near normal for Sunday...but a little cooler on Monday
due to more limited mixing. A return flow with SW winds will help
push high temperatures above normals on Tuesday.
A cold front approaches Tuesday night and passes through on
Wednesday. Passage appears to be slow due to the front becoming
aligned with the flow aloft. Will go with low chances of showers
from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Right now it
looks like the daytime hours of Wednesday have the overall best chance of
showers. Weak high pressure returns dry weather on Thursday.
Models differ for Friday. GFS has trended towards European model (ecmwf) with a
potential low pressure system affecting the region. Support from
ensemble means are not great so far...but Worth at least slight chance
probability of precipitation.
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will slowly build in from the west tonight and remain
across the region Saturday. A frontal system will approach Saturday
VFR expected regionwide tonight as broken cloud deck dissipates
after sunset. VFR is expected on Saturday.
Northwest flow/gusts will diminish after sunset. High confidence of wind
remaining right of 310 magnetic this evening. Wind gradually
becoming westerly later tonight and on Saturday. Gusty northwest winds to
30kt likely on Sunday behind the frontal passage.
New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kjfk fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Klga fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kewr fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kteb fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kisp fcster comments: amendments possible in ceilings through early
Outlook for 18z Sat through Wednesday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds to 30 knots on
as high pressure starts to build into the region behind the
departing low...the pressure gradient on the waters will weaken.
Winds will diminish and seas will subside...allowing for tranquil
conditions on the waters tonight and Saturday. A cold front will
move across the area Saturday night...with seas and winds increasing
to small craft. Will put a Small Craft Advisory up for all waters
starting Saturday night at midnight with a strong northwest flow.
Small Craft Advisory conditions for all waters Sunday with a gusty northwest flow. Winds
then subside Sunday night and Monday as the center of high pressure
approaches the eastern Seaboard...so sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions for all
waters by Monday afternoon. A SW return flow will be relatively
light on Tuesday...but gusts and seas on the ocean could be
marginally at Small Craft Advisory levels on Wednesday with the passage of a cold
no significant widespread precipitation expected through the first
half of next week.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
near term...British Columbia
short term...British Columbia