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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1038 PM EDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Synopsis...
a weak trough moves through tonight. High pressure builds over
the region for the middle week. High pressure gives way to a cold
frontal passage Thursday night into Friday. Another front may
impact the region Sunday night and Monday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
previous update changed probability of precipitation to chance levels across portions of
NE New Jersey due to the lingering showers. With rain coming to an
end...this update will remove all mention of precipitation throughout the
County Warning Area.

Heights rise slowly tonight as an upper ridge across the upper
Midwest into the Mississippi Valley builds east.

Weak warm advection sets up behind the trough and strengthens late
tonight...toward 12z Tuesday.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/...
the upper ridge builds slowly east Tuesday through Tuesday night
as a highly amplified pattern remains with one trough moving out
of The Rockies and another moving through eastern Canada and off
the Canadian maritime.

Heat and humidity will slowly build with a surface high also
building in through Tuesday night.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at ocean beaches on
Tuesday.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
hot temperatures the focus for Wednesday and Thursday. Upper low tracking southeastward from
Quebec into the Maritimes during the period looks to be
suppressing heights a bit. The GFS has latched on with a slightly
cooler forecast. The European model (ecmwf) does not show much of an influence. As a
result...made no changes at this time to temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Hx at least 95
in the city both days and could approach 100 New Jersey zones and southwestern New York
zones. The precipitation associated with the cold front gets here Thursday night and
ends Friday per the GFS and European model (ecmwf). Saw no reason to deviate from this
solution. Fair weather returns late Friday into the weekend as a broad area of
hipres settles in again. Most of the shortwave energy remains along
the Canadian/US border during this time period. A blend of
guidance was used for temperatures which was close to the ongoing forecast.
The next weak frontal system and upper trough prognosticated for Sun night and
Monday. Only schc probability of precipitation for this as again most of the forcing could be
north of the County Warning Area.

&&

Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure builds overnight and Tuesday.

Mainly VFR as earlier isolated showers and thunderstorms have
ended. Patchy fog is possible in spots overnight...generally
outside of NYC metropolitan terminals.

VFR Tuesday.

Winds lighten from the south or southwest overnight. Light winds
in the morning give way to southerly sea breezes by afternoon
Tuesday.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday...
Tuesday night-Thursday...mainly VFR. 5-6sm haze development
possible. SW winds with afternoon seabreeze development at coastal
terminals. Thunderstorms and rain possible Thursday aftn/eve.
Friday and Saturday...VFR.

&&

Marine...
with a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters tonight
through Tuesday night wind and seas will remain below small craft
levels. A weak trough crosses the waters tonight. High pressure
then builds for late tonight into Tuesday night.

Winds and seas generally blw Small Craft Advisory levels Wed-Sat. Exception could be
the western ocean in vicinity of The Harbor entrance with an enhanced southerly flow
late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

Hydrology...
widespread significant precipitation is not expected late tonight-Mon.

&&

Climate...
record highs for Wednesday July 29 2015...

Location..........record high/year.........Forecast high
Newark....................100/1949.................97
Bridgeport.................96/2002.................91
Central Park...............99/1949.................95
La Guardia.................97/1949.................97
j f Kennedy................99/2002.................92
Islip......................96/2002.................93

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jmc/met
near term...mps
short term...met
long term...jmc
aviation...precipitable water
marine...jmc/met
hydrology...jmc/met
climate...

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