Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1114 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will provide fair weather through Monday. A cold
front will pass on Tuesday. High pressure will then build over
the Ohio Valley through the end of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
only seeing few stratocu across parts of the interior late this
morning...which should dissipate this afternoon via deep
subsidence and a drying air mass. The hi pressure ridge builds right
over the County Warning Area tonight. This would result in ideal radiational cooling
conds if not for the mass of hi clouds over central Canada. This
may temper lows a bit. Maintained some patchy frost across the
normally colder spots.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
dry sun-Monday with the hi over the region. All models then hint at
very weak coastal development Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough swings
into the eastern Seaboard. A cold front associated with the trough passes Tuesday.
The coastal looks to only clip eastern portions of the County Warning Area...and the
front does not have much moisture to work with. As a result...probability of precipitation
were capped at 30. A warming trend through Monday...then temperatures stabilize
on Tuesday with the frontal passage.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
upper trough digs into the northestern Continental U.S. By the end of the week. Dry Wednesday
and Thursday...then maintained the low chance for rain Friday. The 00z solutions
were in general agreement with the upper trough...so cooler weather can be
expected by Friday. With respect to the finer details...the GFS was fairly benign
with more of a northwest flow pattern yielding possible showers. The European model (ecmwf)
interestingly spins up a coastal which would put down some snow
across the mountains of northern New England and a round of moderate
Aviation /15z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure builds in from the west today and then remains over
the terminals into Sunday.
VFR through the period.
Forecast dilemma is whether or not a seabreeze develops in the middle
to late after as northerly winds weaken. For the time...will just go with
variable late day...but it is a possibility.
Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Tuesday...mainly VFR...slight chance of MVFR in showers.
there could still be a gust up to 25 knots on the ocean east of Moriches
Inlet before noon...but as high pressure builds winds should
otherwise rapidly diminish...so we have let Small Craft Advisory expire.
The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conds could be from Tuesday-Wednesday with the
approach of a cold front late Tuesday afternoon.
widespread significant precipitation is not expected over the next 7 days.