Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1245 am EDT sun Aug 2 2015
weak high pressure builds in on Sunday. A series of fronts will
impact the area early next week. Several areas of low pressure may
impact the area late next week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
shortwave pivots through New England tonight...with weak cold
front continuing to dissipate this evening.
Threat of isolated showers coming to an end. Clearing skies and light
Post-frontal winds should lead to good radiational cooling in
outlying areas...with lows 55-60. Areas along the immediate coast
should remain mostly in the 60s...except lower 70s in NYC.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
weak high pressure will prevail on Sunday...with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures similar to or only a shade less warm than those of
today...with near 90 in vicinity of NYC and NE New Jersey...and middle/upper 80s
elsewhere...slightly higher than a mav/met MOS blend. As the high
settles to the south Sunday night...weak low level warm air and
moisture advection should result in a warmer night...with lows in
the lower 70s for most of Long Island and NYC metropolitan...60s most
elsewhere...and upper 50s only in the valleys of Orange County.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development on Sunday due
to developing southerly flow and residual 3ft@8sec period swells.
If swells are slower to subside...the risk could be high across
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
hot and humid conds on tap for the first half of the new week. A
deep upper trough will dig towards the northeast for the middle to
the end of the week...resulting in cooler and unsettled weather.
Surface high pressure over the area moves offshore on Monday...and a deep SW
flow will result in increasing heat and humidity over the area as a
cold front approaches from the west. Highs on Monday will top off in
the upper 80s across most of the County Warning Area to the low 90s in/around NYC
and the urbanized areas of NE New Jersey. Meanwhile...surface dewpoints will
climb into the middle and upper 60s and may approach 70 along the CT
coast and across eastern Long Island. The heat index will be in the
low to middle 90s throughout the County Warning Area. A few showers/thunderstorms possible
across northwest zones as that cold front approaches...but the bulk of the
activity will hold off until Monday night.
Front comes through by Tuesday morning...and temperatures fall back
somewhat...but will still be several degrees above normal with highs
in the middle 80s across the interior northwest zones...and generally in the
upper 80s to near 90 elsewhere with the warmest temperatures in/around NYC.
Drier air builds into the region as well with dewpoints generally
in the upper 50s to low 60s west of the Hudson River and in the
low to middle 60s elsewhere.
Another cold front comes through the region Tuesday night as a deep
upper trough builds east and will remain along the northeast for the
end of the week and into the weekend. Several shortwaves will rotate
around the base of the trough and through the region during this
time. Meanwhile...surface low pressure will form at the base of the trough.
Latest models have the low staying south of the County Warning Area...resulting in a
mainly dry forecast...and then another low will pass either over or
south of the area over the weekend.
For now...will carry chance probability of precipitation on Thursday...and then again on
Saturday with each passing low. Temperatures during this time look to fall
below normal levels with highs topping off in the upper 70s to low
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure builds in on Sunday.
Westerly winds diminish this evening and gradually veer to the
northwest. Light northwest winds back to the SW Sunday morning. S seabreeze
development expected at coastal terminals sun after...with late day
southeast seabreeze possible at kewr/kteb.
Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday...
Sun night...VFR. Light S/SW flow.
Monday...gusty S flow. A chance of thunderstorms late.
Monday night-Tue...chance thunderstorms. Cold front passage with S
wind...shifting to west. Patchy fog across outlying terminals Monday
Wednesday...VFR. West flow.
Thursday...sub VFR possible in shra/tstms.
seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory levels east of Fire Island Inlet and will
continue to subside...so have cancelled the advsy.
Increasing SW flow could result in Small Craft Advisory conds on the ocean and the
bays of Long Island Monday into Monday night as a cold front approaches
from the west and passes to the north.
locally heavy rainfall is possible in thunderstorms late Monday and
Monday night...which could lead to minor poor drainage flooding.