Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
1251 PM EST Friday Nov 27 2015

a sprawling high pressure ridge extending from south of Nova
Scotia to the southeast states will weaken today...allowing a
cold front to approach from the northwest tonight. The front will
pass through early Saturday...then stall across the middle Atlantic
region through the weekend. High pressure will build in from the
north from Sunday night into early next week. A low pressure
system will impact the region during the middle of next week.


Near term /through tonight/...
just some thin cirrus across the area the rest of the afternoon
which will result in mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm
conditions. Islip New York broke its record high this after...with a few
more records possible before the end of the afternoon.


Cold front will slowly approach tonight...with slight chance of
showers late except for NYC metropolitan and Long Island. With winds
veering more SW do not think fog will be an issue.


Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
cold frontal passage takes place Sat morning. Most of the associated precipitation
will be Post-frontal...with likely pop but low quantitative precipitation forecast for most areas
during the day on Sat.

Think GFS is too quick to build high pressure down from the north
Sat night into Sunday...and have sided with NAM/European model (ecmwf) idea of a
weak impulse riding the front and bringing a second round of
showers Sat night into Sunday...with continued likely pop for
most areas Sat evening...then still chance pop for metropolitan and
coastal sections late Sat night into Sunday morning. Temperatures this
weekend should be closer to average.


Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
weak ridging temporarily builds into the region Monday.
Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Then another area of
low pressure approaches for Tuesday into Wednesday...with pop ramping
up to chance on Tuesday and likely Tuesday night. High pressure then
returns later in the week.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly below average.


Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
high pressure continues to move offshore today. A cold front will
approach tonight and move across Saturday morning.

VFR conditions expected through tonight.

Generally south-southwest-SW winds today 6 to 10 knots. Winds veer to the west late
tonight and then become northerly Saturday morning behind the front.
Light wind speeds tonight into Saturday morning...generally around 5
to 7 knots.

There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings Saturday morning.

Outlook for 18z Saturday through Wednesday...
Saturday...MVFR ceilings possible. Light rain possible in the
Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR possible in the morning with a chance of
showers. Otherwise VFR in the afternoon.
Monday-Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...IFR possible in rain and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR or IFR possible in the morning with rain ending.


swells holding around 4 feet early this afternoon...but should creep
up to around 5 feet. Seas continue build through this evening with
prolonged southerly flow and then winds nearly stay the same speed
with the passage of a weak cold front. The winds will become
westerly and then northerly going into Saturday. Thinking is that
the offshore flow will not be enough to decrease the waves that
much with long period swell from the southeast flow continuing.
Therefore Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect through
Saturday. The higher seas could linger into Saturday evening as

With the northerly flow continuing behind the cold front as another
high builds northwest of the waters...eventually ocean seas should
lower by later on Saturday night. The sub Small Craft Advisory conditions will
then continue through the remainder of the weekend as the pressure
gradient weakens further with the approach of the center of the
high pressure.

The sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected through Tuesday morning.
Winds and seas will increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
as a low pressure system passes near the area waters.


quantitative precipitation forecast Sat into Sunday should range from about 1/10 to 1/4 inch.
Low pressure could bring about 1/2 inch of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST
Saturday for anz350-353-355.



near term...Goodman/dw
short term...Goodman
long term...British Columbia

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations