Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1059 PM EDT Friday Aug 22 2014
high pressure builds south across the northeast through the
weekend into next week. A cold front approaches from the west on
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
showers have ended across and near the County Warning Area. Residual showers over
east central PA associated with the exit region of a weak 300 mb jet are
also weakening with time and will not pose a threat to the local
area with their slow movement. Should be mostly dry
overnight...with perhaps some showers developing to the north towards
morning as another shortwave trough drops down from northern New York.
There's nothing on the scope at this time...but will need to monitor this.
Have schc probability of precipitation covering this. Otherwise...just some minor
adjustments to hourly T/TD/winds based on latest observation and trends.
Temperatures right around normal for tonight...in the upper 50s to middle
60s under cloudy skies. Could see patchy fog with some moisture in
the lower levels with the easterly flow.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
upper level trough begins pivoting out of the region as the strong
ridging over the central US begins to nudge eastward. At the
surface...the high pushing south from Canada will take hold of the
region...keeping the passing low pressure systems well south of
the area. Kept the area dry for the first half of the day...then
introduced probability of precipitation once again for the afternoon with the passing of the
final shortwave/associated vorticity maximum. Slight differences in the 12z
model solutions on where the passage occurs...but overall thinking
the best chance...if anything does form...will be west of NYC metropolitan.
Because confidence is low of occurring and of any
coverage...capped probability of precipitation at slight chance...with higher confidence most
the area remains dry. The shortwave exits early Sat night...with
dry conditions for the majority of the night.
Yet another day of highs a few degrees below normal with the
continual onshore flow and cloudy conditions. Skies finally start
to scatter out tomorrow night...which could lead to low temperatures to
drop slightly below normal.
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
high pressure slowly builds southward into the region through the
VFR with an easterly flow through the forecast period. There are few
to scattered clouds around 2500 feet along the coast which may become
broken for a few hours through 06z.
Outlook for 00z sun through Wednesday...
generally sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions in place through the weekend with
high pressure building south over the waters. Persistent easterly
flow may build the outer edges of the ocean waters to around 5 feet
tomorrow morning and afternoon...but mainly expecting between 3-4 feet for
the ocean and 1 feet or less elsewhere. Gusts at most will reach 20
kts on the ocean.
Quiet conditions across all area waters expected then to last
through the middle of next week...with high pressure over the
waters. Seas increase to small craft levels Wednesday night as a
cold front approaches the area waters from the west.
no significant rainfall or hydrologic issues are expected through