Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1114 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014
a cold front will approach the region tonight...and pass east of
the area Thursday. High pressure returns for Friday. High
pressure will move off the coast during the weekend and a cold
front will pass through the area early next week. High pressure
builds across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
line segment of showers and thunderstorms across southeast CT/Li will
push east through midnight. Otherwise...with waning instability
expecting rain showers/embedded thunderstorm activity ahead of cold front
entering areas n&w of NYC...to continue to weaken as it pushes east
Based on weak forcing and dwindling instability have reduced probability of precipitation
to low/slight chance overnight into Thursday morning...mainly
along/ahead of cold front.
Overnight lows tonight will fall into the middle to upper 60s to
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/...
a few lingering showers possible across east Li/sect on
Thursday...otherwise drier weather is expected to the west as high
pressure starts to build into the region.
Thursday night...the front will push far enough south...and high
pressure to the west will build into the area. Expect a mostly dry
Highs on Thursday will only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s...and
Thursday night...lows will fall into the 50s and 60s.
A moderate risk of rip currents exists for eastern Long Island
beaches on Thursday with residual southerly swells.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will keep dry conditions across the area through
Saturday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes will slide across the
area Sunday into Sunday night. Several waves of low pressure will
move across...bringing increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The area of low pressure will then move into
southeast Canada Monday into Monday night...its associated cold
front will move east across the area by Tuesday morning.
Conditions will slowly improve on Tuesday...as high pressure builds
in from the west and remains through the middle of the week.
Temperatures for the extended period will be near seasonable levels
for this time of year.
Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
a cold front was moving through northwestern Connecticut to the NYC
metropolitan area and into southeastern Pennsylvania at 03z...by 10z the
front is expected to be east of kgon. Showers and a few
thunderstorms were along and ahead of the front. Precipitation ends
west to east 05z to 10z.
Conditions are expected to be generally VFR with MVFR visibilities
in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
With the passage of the cold front southwest wind shifts to the
northwest to north. Gusts 15 knots to 20 knots are possible after 13z
Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday...
Saturday night-Monday...VFR with a chance of rain showers/thunderstorms with MVFR
or lower possible.
tonight...winds and seas expected to gradually subside overnight
as a cold front crosses the waters.
Winds and seas will subside Thursday night as high pressure starts
to build into the region.
High pressure across the area waters will keep seas below Small
Craft Advisory levels Friday into Saturday. An increase in southerly
winds will help build seas on Saturday night through the beginning
of the week to Small Craft Advisory levels...with the approach of a
low pressure system.
flooding threat has ended with instability waning. An additional
1/10 to 1/4 inch...highest east...possible with rain showers/embedded thunderstorms and rain
activity ahead of cold front pushing through overnight.
Waves of low pressure passing near the area Sunday into Monday have
the potential to produce showers and storms capable of heavy rain.
Because significant uncertainty still exists with the timing and
amounts...this heavy rain potential will not be included in the
hazardous weather outlook at this time.
near term...British Columbia
short term...British Columbia