Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1032 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
high pressure will build in from the west through Friday and then
offshore on Saturday. A frontal system approaches Saturday night
into Sunday...with a cold front moving through Monday into Tuesday
morning. High pressure builds in towards the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
forecast remains on track. Will not make significant changes to
the database. Some middle-level clouds may spill into western
portions of the County Warning Area...but they should erode over the next couple
High pressure continues to build east from the Ohio Valley with a
light northerly flow and clear skies. Stayed close to mav/met MOS
guidance with lows in the 50s inland...to the lower and middle 60s
NYC metropolitan. The Pine Barrens region of Li will likely get into the
50s as well. This is about 5 degrees below normal.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/...
upper trough passes to the east with gradual heights rises and surface
high pressure building into or just south of the area on Friday. A
weak Lee or thermal trough in the afternoon will allow for seabreeze
development with the large scale flow becoming S/SW Friday night as
high pressure builds offshore.
There will be plenty of sun with daytime highs near 80 and lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Stayed close to met/mav MOS. These
numbers are still a few degrees below normal. Dew points will be
in the 50s Friday after...making for very comfortable conditions.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
high pressure will move off the coast Saturday and a return
southerly flow will usher in warmer and a bit more humid conditions.
A warm front will lift north and east across the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning...which will result in the development of
showers and thunderstorms.
A potent cold front will move through the Great Lakes Sunday and
across the local area Monday into Monday night. Rain will gradually
diminish through the day on Monday as the front continues to move
east and offshore by Tuesday morning.
Behind the cold front...cooler and drier conditions are expected...
with temperatures a few degrees below normal Tuesday through
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure slowly builds in from the west. A weak surface trough
develops in the early afternoon.
A light north to northeast flow continues through the overnight and
into early Friday. Sea breezes are likely to develop along the Long
Island and Connecticut coasts beginning around 16z. Inland wind
shifts to west to southwest with the trough development.
Outlook for 00z Saturday through Tuesday...
Saturday night-Monday...VFR with a chance of rain showers/thunderstorms with MVFR
or lower possible.
relatively tranquil conditions expected across the waters through
Saturday. A southerly flow across the ocean waters will allow
conditions to reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas fall back below Small Craft Advisory levels
towards the middle of next week.
areas of low pressure passing near the area Sunday into Monday
have the potential to produce showers and storms capable of heavy
rain. Significant uncertainty still exists with timing/amounts
though...so will not outlook in severe weather potential statement at this time.