Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
147 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Synopsis...
low pressure tracks northeast along the northern New England coast
into Sunday. High pressure will provide dry and seasonable
conditions early next week. A warm front will then move through
the area on Wednesday...followed by high pressure building to the
south to end the week.
&&
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
stacked low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will move very slowly north-northeast
overnight. It will remain windy...with gusts between 25 and 35
miles per hour...highest at the coast. As typically occurs...expect the
mixing depth to lower through the night as the boundary layer
cools.
Rain showers coverage will gradually diminish overnight as closed low
slowly departs - so have continued with gradually diminishing probability of precipitation
- just switched to areal coverage wording.
For temperatures - already running close to forecast lows across
interior zones - so lowered a tad consistent with a mav/lav/met
blend.
&&
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Monday/...
closed upper low slowly lifts to the northeast Sunday and Sunday
night. Clouds will mix with sun...with higher sky percentages east
during the day Sunday...then skies clear out as the low and cyclonic
flow loses it/S grip across the northeast.
Temperatures rebound Sunday as upper cold pool moves east and more
sunshine is realized...but still fall short of seasonal norms.
Another windy day is on tap...although do not foresee wind advection gusts
Sunday as winds aloft looks a little weaker across our area.
There could be a brief morning shower or sprinkle over southeast CT early
in the morning...otherwise it will be dry through Sunday night.
Sunday night lows will be in the 50s across NYC metropolitan...40s
elsewhere except some upper 30s across the interior. MOS in general
agreement this time frame...and will follow a MOS blend.
&&
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
models are in good agreement with the large scale upper pattern
during the long term period. The cutoff low pressure system will
lift through the Canadian Maritimes on Monday as a broad 500 mb ridge
builds over the eastern half of the Continental U.S.. the ridge will strengthen
during the latter part of the week with an increasingly hot and
humid air mass developing.
The GFS and ec deterministic models begin to diverge with the
details in the upper pattern starting Wednesday which is leading to
differences at the surface. As a result...the warm front stalls much
farther S in the ec than the GFS with a shortwave tracking through
New England in the late afternoon/eve. GFS does not have any
indication of this.
At the surface...dry and seasonable weather will prevail Monday and Tuesday
as high pressure builds across the area with a Bermuda high becoming
established during the second half of the week. A warm front will
approach Tuesday night and lift through the area on Wednesday. Have
maintained low chance probability of precipitation ahead of and with its passage as guidance
is not indicating all that much in the way of rainfall.
The region will remain in the warm sector Wednesday through Sat with a
chance of air mass showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/eve.
Instability will be present...but no large scale trigger will be
present for initiation. Storms could fire on thermal trough or
even seabreeze boundaries...however predictability in this is too
low this far out...and have kept the forecast dry. Stratus and/or
fog will also be a possibility each night during the second half
of the week. Have not included this in the forecast at this time.
&&
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
a gusty northwest flow will continue into sun after as low pressure lifts
slowly north along the northern New England coast.
VFR. Winds will be right around 310-320 magnetic...varying plus or
minus 10 degrees. Winds probably favor south of 310 before
noon...then north of it thereafter. Gusts 25-30 knots during the
early morning hours will increase 30-35kt by mid-morning.
Sustained winds and gusts then gradually diminish this afternoon.
Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday...
Sun night-Mon...VFR.
Tue-Wed...MVFR or lower possible in the vicinity of a warm front
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Thursday...VFR.
&&
Marine...
wind gusts have lowered to well below gale levels over the non-
ocean waters - so have converted these waters to an Small Craft Advisory through
Sunday.
Gales will prevail across the ocean waters overnight...with gale
force gusts lingering into Sunday morning over the eastern ocean
waters. Will need to replace gales with scas on the ocean waters
once the gales come to an end.
Winds back to the west Sunday night and will diminish as the
pressure gradient relaxes.
Rough seas slowly subside through the period.
Monday through Thursday...winds are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through the period with an inversion developing over the
waters. However...an increasing SW flow during the middle of the
week may cause seas on the ocean to reach marginal Small Craft Advisory levels.
&&
Hydrology...
most areas will see a few hundredths of an inch of quantitative precipitation forecast overnight in
mainly scattered rain showers. Thereafter...relatively dry weather is expected
through early next week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ah plus/ graphs on our website.
&&
Tides/coastal flooding...
strong northwest winds will result in blow out tides around the
times of low tide Sunday. Localized low water problems are possible.
&&
Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 am EDT early this morning for anz353-355.
Gale Warning until noon EDT today for anz350.
&&
$$
Synopsis...24/pw
near term...maloit/dw/pw
short term...precipitable water
long term...24
aviation...jc
marine...24/maloit/pw
hydrology...24/pw
tides/coastal flooding...
