Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1059 am EDT Monday Mar 17 2014
low pressure passes well south and east of the area this
afternoon. High pressure moves builds in from the north tonight
and Tuesday. Low pressure approaches from the west Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A cold front associated with the low moves through
the region Wednesday night. High pressure builds in behind the low
Thursday and Thursday night. Another low pressure system affects
the region Friday night into Saturday. Polar high pressure builds
back into the region to end the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
clouds beginning to thin out across the region as the upper
support and surface Low Pass to the south and east. Snow to the south
of the forecast area is also becoming very disjointed. Middle level
short wave trough will push offshore in the after. In fact...some of
the clouds with daytime heating are filling in back to the west.
Thus...a mostly cloudy day remains on tap with the possible
exception of locations north and west of NYC...where there could
be more sun.
The cloud cover and NE flow will produce highs in the lower to
middle 30s...which is about 15 degrees below normal.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
the area of high pressure north of the region will sinks southward
and move over the region though the short term...keeping conditions
dry and clearing sky conditions. The clearing skies and diminishing
winds will result in good radiational cooling. Overnight lows will
fall into the teens across the interior...and into the lower to
middle 20s across coastal locations.
Temperatures will be warmer on Tuesday as temperatures climb into
the upper 30s to near 40. Expect Tuesday to be a mostly sunny day.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
a rather progressive northerly flow will be the dominate feature
through the extended period with a couple of shortwaves moving
through the region. The first system moves out of the Pacific
northwest today and tracks across the northern United States through
Wednesday. The surface low moves north of the area Wednesday night
with the associated cold front passing through. Warm advection ahead
of the system will raise temperatures and low level thickness.
However...with the onset of light precipitation Wednesday
morning...some light snow showers will be possible across the lower
Hudson Valley into portions of northeastern New Jersey. Showers will
become likely Wednesday into Wednesday evening. There is little to
no surface or elevated instability...therefore thunder not forecast.
Cold advection sets up behind the front for Thursday. With
downsloping wind and sunshine temperatures will be a few degrees
higher than Wednesday.
Southern high pressure builds briefly Thursday and Thursday night
before weakening Friday as the next northern stream moves out of the
northern plains. Warm frontal rain and showers possible with the
system Friday night. The low moves across the region Saturday and
Saturday night. The atmosphere will be warm enough for rain once
Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low Saturday night into
Sunday with cold air returning.
Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
VFR as high pressure builds over Quebec Canada.
Overcast middle level clouds will move out by evening.
NE surface flow persists.
New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kewr fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast. An occasional
ASOS gust to 20 knots until 16z.
The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.
Kjfk fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast. An occasional
ASOS gust to 20 knots until 16z. Average wind direction will veer just
right of 040 mag by the afternoon departure push.
Klga fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast. An occasional
gust to 20 knots until 16z. Wind direction averages just right of 040
mag. Direction veers slightly this afternoon.
Kteb fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast.
Khpn fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast.
Kisp fcster comments: high confidence surface wind forecast.
Outlook for 12z Tuesday through Friday...
Wednesday-Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible in -ra. Possible period of wintry
mix inland Wednesday morning and late Wednesday night. Southeast wind g20-25kt during
the day. Possible low level wind shear issues Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR. West wind g20-25kt possible.
Small Craft Advisory conditions have developed across the ocean waters with seas
around 5 feet and gusts up to 30 knots. Surface low pressure passes well
south and east of the waters this after...with high pressure building
in from the north. The gradient wind will gradually relax this after
with marginal winds and seas.
Winds begin to diminish tonight...however seas are expected to
remain around 5 feet tonight and Tuesday...due to easterly swell.
Small Craft Advisory on the ocean waters through Tuesday.
On the non-ocean waters...conditions are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels.
Small craft seas on the ocean will likely continue into Tuesday
night with a persistent easterly flow. As low pressure approaches
from the west Wednesday a strengthening southerly flow will develop
and seas on the ocean will build into Wednesday night. With warmer
air moving over the cooler ocean waters little mixing is expected
and gusts should remain below small craft level.
A cold front moves through the waters Wednesday night and as colder
air moves in some gusts to small craft levels will be possible by
late Thursday and then continue into Friday. As high pressure builds
Friday and cold advection ends gusts will fall below small craft
levels late Friday. Small craft seas on the ocean subside late
Friday into Friday night.
no significant precipitation is expected through the week.
the National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio transmitter that serves the New York City
metropolitan area remains out of service due to radio frequency
interference with the U.S Coast Guard transmitter.
For more information see the following public information
statement (all lower case):
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for anz350-353-355.
short term...British Columbia