Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
714 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will provide fair weather through Monday. A cold
front will pass on Tuesday. High pressure will then build over
the Ohio Valley through the end of next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
made some adjustments to cloud cover through 13z based on
satellite...otherwise no other changes. Middle and hi Post frontal
clouds will continue to drift eastward this morning. Additional low clouds
over the mountains north of the County Warning Area are expected to dissipate in the
downslope flow. Cannot rule out some of these clouds getting into
the County Warning Area however...especially across northern CT and the Hudson Valley.
Deep subsidence and a dry airmass should produce sunny skies by
early afternoon. The hi pressure ridge builds right over the County Warning Area tonight. This
would result in ideal radiational cooling conditions if not for the mass
of hi clouds over central Canada. This may temper lows a bit.
Maintained some patchy frost in the grids across the normally
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
dry sun-Monday with the hi over the region. All models then hint at
very weak coastal development Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough swings
into the eastern Seaboard. A cold front associated with the trough passes Tuesday.
The coastal looks to only clip eastern portions of the County Warning Area...and the
front does not have much moisture to work with. As a result...probability of precipitation
were capped at 30. A warming trend through Monday...then temperatures stabilize
on Tuesday with the frontal passage.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
upper trough digs into the northestern Continental U.S. By the end of the week. Dry Wednesday
and Thursday...then maintained the low chance for rain Friday. The 00z solutions
were in general agreement with the upper trough...so cooler weather can be
expected by Friday. With respect to the finer details...the GFS was fairly benign
with more of a northwest flow pattern yielding possible showers. The European model (ecmwf)
interestingly spins up a coastal which would put down some snow
across the mountains of northern New England and a round of moderate
Aviation /11z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure builds in from the west today and then remains over
the terminals into Sunday.
VFR through the period.
Winds will be from the north-northwest between 10-15 knots this
morning. Expect some occasional gusts into the upper teens and lower
20s this morning. Winds gradually weaken around 18z...and towards
21z start to become light and variable. The northwest flow should
be strong enough to prevent any seabreezes...however the winds to
start to shift towards the west and eventually south this
afternoon. Winds remain light and variable through the night.
Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday...
Tuesday...mainly VFR...slight chance of MVFR in showers.
the Small Craft Advisory remains up on the ocean waters through this
morning for gusts to 25 knots and seas around 5 feet. Gusts are expected
to remain below 25 knots on the remainder of the area waters...and have
dropped the small craft for the eastern portion of Long Island
Sound. Winds and seas should fall below Small Craft Advisory levels on the ocean by
midday as high pressure builds from the west.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected on the area waters through
Monday night. The next chance of small craft conditions come on
Tuesday into Wednesday with the approach of a cold front late during
widespread significant precipitation is not expected over the next 7 days.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for anz350-