Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1041 am EDT Friday Mar 14 2014
high pressure will be positioned just offshore today. A cold
front approaches tonight and moves through the area Saturday. A
developing storm system over the Southern Plains will track to the
southern middle Atlantic coast Sunday night...and out to sea Monday
into Monday night. High pressure will then build from the north
for middle week...followed by another cold front during late week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
updated forecast to increase cloud cover through this morning into
early afternoon. Minor hourly temperature/dew point changes too. Forecast
otherwise on track.
High pressure ridge over the area shifts east today. Warm advection
develops with a deep SW flow. Warm advection clouds are likely
today as a warm front approaches from the south. At this time do
not expect the warm front to move through the area. However
temperatures will modify and leaned toward the warm GFS guidance
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
upper shortwave approaches this evening and moves through late
tonight into early Saturday with a surface cold front passing
around midday. Showers develop ahead of the front by late this
evening. Some snow may be mixed in with the rain across the lower
Hudson Valley tonight into early Saturday morning. No
accumulations are expected. Temperatures may fall off a few
degrees this evening then hold steady or slowly rise in warm
advection ahead of the cold front. Used a blend of the guidance
for temperatures...and followed the mav temperature curve tonight.
Precipitation ends with the passage of the front by early Saturday
afternoon. Do not expected a lot of clearing as cyclonic flow
remains with the upper and surface lows moving slowly away from
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the long term period looks to be fairly active with a transition to
a more progressive pattern across the lower 48. Most interesting
aspect of the forecast period remains Sunday night through Tuesday as a
wave of low pressure passes to our south. Uncertainty centers around
degree of phasing of a southern stream cutoff low over the southwestern
states at this time with a shortwave trough moving onshore the Pacific northwest today.
Degree of phasing of these two features...and ejection of shortwave
energy from this trough and the eventual progression of the trough
itself...will determine eventual impacts to the area. NAM and some
earlier runs of the Canadian have ejected the trough wholesale...
leading to a more northerly and snowier solution for our region.
Think this is overdone and sided with a blend of the 00z
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian...which are in better agreement on an initial
wave moving to our south Sunday night-Monday ahead of the main trough
and bringing the bulk of any snowfall during that time...while a
stronger low associated with the main trough remains to our south
late Monday night into Tuesday.
It will probably take until the 15/00z forecast cycle to better Sample
the upper level features as the northern stream system enters the U.S.
Radiosonde observation network. That said...the general model trend has been a little
farther north and wetter.
Prior to this...a dry cold front will pass to the east Sat evening.
As the storm moves out to sea...high pressure will build from the north
Tuesday/Tuesday night with dry conds.
Another frontal system will approach for the latter part of the
week. Due to uncertainty with its timing and track...have chance pop
spanning from Wednesday through Thursday...though this will likely be scaled
back in the coming days.
Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure moving off the middle Atlantic is shifting the flow to
south-southwest for today with VFR conditions.
Altostratus cloud deck in the 060-080 layer will move out by middle
afternoon. Surface wind increases with some gust in the 25-30 knots
This evening...SW winds at 2000 feet will increase to 45-55 knots.
... Metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kewr fcster comments: moderate confidence wind forecast. Good
confidence in the wind forecast this afternoon...though direction could
be a little more SW than south.
The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.
Kjfk fcster comments: good confidence in the wind forecast this
afternoon. Peak gusts around 30 knots.
Klga fcster comments: good confidence in the wind forecast this
afternoon. Direction averages just left of 220 magnetic.
Kteb fcster comments:good confidence in the wind forecast this
Khpn fcster comments: good confidence in the wind forecast this
Kisp fcster comments: good confidence in the wind forecast this
Outlook for 12z Saturday through Tuesday...
Saturday...VFR. -Ra in the early morning. Surface winds veer to west
with gusts 20-25 knots.
Sunday night-Monday night...chance of snow with IFR possible. NE
wind g25+ knots possible Monday.
Tuesday...generally VFR. NE wind g20-25kt possible.
wind and seas will be below small craft levels this morning. High
pressure moves east today...and with an approaching low well north
of the waters...an increasing SW flow will develop this afternoon.
Winds will increase to near small craft levels...and gusts will
likely be at small craft levels on all the waters by this
afternoon. Seas on the ocean also build back up to small craft
The low passes to the north tonight into Saturday and a cold front
cross the waters during Saturday. Small craft conditions continue
on the ocean waters tonight into Saturday while on the remainder
of the waters gusts are expected to fall below by late tonight.
The small craft on the ocean for this morning was cancelled...and
another small craft was issued for this afternoon into
Small Craft Advisory conds are likely on the ocean and the eastern sound/bays Sat night
after an evening cold frontal passage.
Tranquil conds then return for Sunday with a fairly weak gradient
across the waters. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday night due
to a storm system moving off the southern middle Atlantic coast...and high
pressure building in from the north. Small Craft Advisory conds are likely on the ocean
from Sunday night into Monday evening...and hazardous seas via east swell
may linger thereafter into Tuesday or Tuesday night.
significant precipitation in the form of snow is possible from Sunday
night through Monday night...with the higher amts expected across NYC
metropolitan and Long Island. It is still too early to specify exact
the National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio transmitter that serves the New York City
metropolitan area remains out of service due to radio frequency
interference with the U.S Coast Guard transmitter.
For more information see the following public information
statement (all lower case):
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz330-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for anz350-353-