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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
632 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

a cold front crosses the region this evening with a secondary cold
front passing through Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will
build overhead through Thursday. A cold front will move through
the area Friday. Another cold front moves through Saturday
followed by Canadian high pressure building in Sunday into


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
added low chance probability of precipitation with pre-frontal showers approaching from the
west. Coverage is widely scattered at best. Otherwise...just minor
adjustments needed to T/TD/sky based on latest observation and trends.

A cold front will track across the region from around 1z to 5z. Middle
and upper level trough remain across the northeast through at
least tonight and into Wednesday. Timing of the trough and cold
frontal passage similar among the guidance.

Temperatures will be above normal tonight generally ranging in the 50s
across the area.


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/...
the middle and upper level trough remain Wednesday and Wednesday night
with the trough axis passing east and off shore 06z to 12z Thursday.
At the surface a secondary cold front passes through Wednesday
afternoon. Again there is little low level moisture and lift with
the front and will not have any probability of precipitation with the frontal passage.
Again timing is similar with the guidance.


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure builds overhead Thursday then moves offshore Thursday
night. Temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s with
lows in the low 40s across the interior and upper 40s to low 50s

A cold front approaches the area on Friday morning...moving quickly
offshore by Friday afternoon. Moisture appears to be limited...but
enough for showers to develop across the area. Temperatures on
Friday will be in the low to middle 60s with lows in the upper 30s to
around 40 across the interior and middle to upper 40s elsewhere.

Another cold front will pass through the area on Saturday. Moisture
also appears to be very limited...but northern areas might see some
showers develop through the afternoon. High pressure then builds
back across the area Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday are likely to average around
10 to possibly 15 degrees below seasonal normals. The first freeze
of the season looks likely to occur Saturday night across the
interior as lows drop into the lower 30s. Lows elsewhere are
forecast in the middle and upper 30s. Similar values are forecast
Sunday night. Low temperatures will begin work back near normal
levels by Monday night with low temperatures in the middle to upper 30s
across the interior and low to middle 40s elsewhere.


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a cold front moves from west to east across the area terminals

Generally looking at VFR conditions through the taf period...except
MVFR conditions possible in any showers that develop with the
cold frontal passage late this afternoon...mainly for kgon between

The winds overall will be SW to west-southwest at 10-15 knots for city terminals.
Winds diminish and become more westerly tonight.

Better chances for gusts come with the passage of the cold front
tonight...between 22z and 00z. Gusts of 20-25 knots are possible...but
do not think they will be carried them in a tempo

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: occasional gusts up to 25 knots with passage of
cold front 22-00z tonight.

Klga fcster comments: occasional gusts up to 25 knots with passage of
cold front 22-00z tonight.

Kewr fcster comments: occasional gusts up to 25 knots with passage of
cold front 22-00z tonight.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.

Kteb fcster comments: occasional gusts up to 25 knots with passage of
cold front 22-00z tonight.

Khpn fcster comments: there may be an occasional gust or two up to
20 knots with passage of cold front 22-00z tonight.

Kisp fcster comments: occasional gusts up to 25 knots with passage of
cold front 22-00z tonight.

Outlook for 18z Wednesday through Sunday...
Wednesday-Thursday night...mainly VFR. West/northwest winds with gusts to near 20 knots
during the day Wednesday.
Friday-Friday evening...low chance of MVFR with any showers.
Late Friday night-sun...VFR. Northwest winds...gusts near 20 knots.


south to southwest flow was increasing ahead of a cold front and
will increase farther this evening. A few gusts on the outer
ocean waters may approach 25 knots this evening...however overall
gusts are expected to remain below small craft levels. In response
seas on the ocean waters were slowly building. By this evening
expect seas to build to at least 5 feet. With the southwest to west
flow continuing into Wednesday until the passage of a secondary
cold front seas on the ocean waters are expected to remain at
small craft levels through late Wednesday afternoon...and possibly
into the early evening. With the passage of the secondary cold
front winds will become northwest and seas will slowly subside.
Continuing the hazardous seas small craft through tonight on the
waters west of Fire Island Inlet and through Wednesday to the
east. Possible that the advisory may need to be extended into
Wednesday evening.

Below Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on Thursday as high pressure
builds across the area waters. A cold front approaches Thursday
night and moves across the area waters on Friday. An increase
southwest flow will allowing seas to build between 5 to 7 feet
across the ocean waters. Seas subside Friday night behind the
frontal passage...but wind gusts to 25 knots remain possible on mainly
the ocean waters on Saturday and Sunday.


no significant precipitation is expected into early next week.


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT
Wednesday for anz355.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
Wednesday for anz350-353.



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