Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1240 am EST Friday Mar 6 2015
a weak low pressure system will track along an Arctic cold front
well south of the area through this evening. High pressure moves
east through Friday then passes south of the region this weekend
as several weak impulses pass to the north. The high slides
offshore Monday night and Tuesday. A cold front passes through on
Wednesday...followed by high pressure for Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
forecast updated to adjust temperatures/dew points/sky/ and pop to reflect
latest trends. Snow has ended across the region. Expect difficult
travel conditions through overnight with snow and ice covered
roads and temperatures dropping into the single digits and lower
For the latest snowfall amounts refer to the latest public
information statement under the National Weather Service web Page top news of the day.
Otherwise...as an Arctic high pressure system builds east toward
the area...northwest winds of 10-20 miles per hour will combine with overnight lows
of 0 to 15 degrees to produce wind chills of around 0 degrees
after midnight until 9 am Friday. Record lows are likely for many
of our official climate stations. See climate section below for
current record lows for March 6.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
Arctic high pressure will prevail with temperatures averaging around 20 degrees
below normal for Friday...in the middle 20s and 15-20 degrees below
normal on Friday night with lows from the single digits to the teens.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
high pressure builds south of the region this weekend with a series
of weak upper level shortwaves passing north of the region. Expect
partly to mostly cloudy skies with the chance of some light snow
showers late Saturday into Saturday night. Any probability of precipitation will be confined
to locations north of NYC.
Another wave passes north of the region Sunday night...followed by a
third wave late Monday...however thinking the best chance of probability of precipitation
will be north of the region so will keep probability of precipitation out of the forecast
The region is then under the influence of high pressure Monday night
through the end of the week with warming temperatures each day. A
weak cold front is expected to move across the region Wednesday into
Temperatures will start off below normal with highs in the lower 30s
Saturday. A moderation will then commence early next week as heights
aloft gradually rise...with temperatures near normal...in the middle to
upper 40s for highs next week.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR through the taf period. Broken deck at 10-15 kft east of the city
will scatter out overnight...and sky clear conds expected by the next
hour or two.
Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots until 08-10z...then northwest winds
will diminish to 10 knots or less. Winds become light/vrb after 20z.
Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday...
Friday night-Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Small Craft Advisory/Small Craft Advisory levels for frequent wind gusts to 25 knots and seas
around 5 feet are forecast to continue until 11 am on Friday. Light
freezing spray is also forecast until 11 am Friday as well.
Sub Small Craft Advisory conds return Friday as high pressure builds over the waters.
Small Craft Advisory conds are possible...mainly on the ocean waters Sat in the wake
of a trough of low pressure. Otherwise...sub-advsy conds are expected
through the period.
no significant precipitation is expected through early next week.
However...temperatures forecast to warm into the 40s may result in the start
of ice break up on area rivers and streams.
record lows for Friday March 6
National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio weekly test will be delayed until Friday between
11 am and noon due to on going hazardous weather.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EST this morning for anz350-
long term...British Columbia