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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
358 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016


Low pressure passes tracks to the Canadian Maritimes
tonight...while high pressure builds in from the west tonight and
remains into this weekend. Deep low pressure will track over the Atlantic
late Sun night into Monday. An active winter pattern will then set up
over the area through the middle of next week.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...

A general 6 to 12 inches of snow...with a few locally higher
amounts...has fallen across Li and CT. Highest amounts have been
across central portions of both regions. The heavy wet
snow...combined with northerly winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour with gusts into
the 30s...will continue a dangerous threat for downed tree limbs and
power lines into this evening.

Otherwise...vigorous shortwave energy and coastal low pressure moves
towards the Canadian Maritimes tonight...with high pressure
gradually building in from the west. Gusty northwest winds will
gradually subside through the evening. Potential for good
radiational conditions late tonight across interior and Pine
barrens...couple with fresh snowpack...allowing temperatures to fall well
down into the teens. Elsewhere lows in the 20s.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...

Models in decent agreement with a developing split upper flow. A
northern stream cutoff low will track from central Ontario into
central Quebec Sat into Sat night...with resultant clipper system
taking a similar track. Meanwhile a cutoff low separates into the
southern US Sat into Sat night from the base of an approaching
central US trough...with resultant low pressure developing along the
Gulf Coast.

For the tri-state...tranquil and seasonably cool conditions as high
pressure builds in from the central US Sat morning...and then sinks
southeast of the region for Sat after into Sat night.

Highs generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday...based on a
slight reduction of guidance blend due to new snowpack. Potential
for decent radiational cooling conds across interior once again Sat
night...although this may be tempered by high clouds and SW winds
near the coast.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...

Low pressure will begin to rapidly intensify off the southeastern Continental U.S. On sun.
A weak ridge of hi pressure over the County Warning Area during this time so fair weather
with temperatures around average. The low then tracks northeastward over the
Atlantic...reaching a point about 350 miles east of the benchmark Monday afternoon.
The models are in remarkable agreement with respect to to the position of the
low...with the 12z gefs/Gem/GFS/ECMWF solutions virtually stacked on top
of each other. There are some intensity differences...but not much.
At 18z Monday...the European model (ecmwf) gets down to 971...the Gem 975 and the GFS
977. The GFS and Gem have trended westward. The European model (ecmwf) is relatively
unchanged. Based on model forecasts for this storm early this
week...model performance this year and current trends...expecting
the storm to end up tracking west of the current forecasts. As a
result...forecast data is augmented above the superblend for winds and
probability of precipitation. At least minor tidal flooding possible with a new moon on Monday.
Will start a mention in the severe weather potential statement for the system. Although the current
model data suggests only a glancing blow at best...all interests
should pay attention to this storm as a middle 970s low tracking up the
coast would have serious impacts. Attention then shifts to the 500 mb
low dropping into the northestern Continental U.S. Tue-Thu. The pattern supports the
development of 2 weak lows Tuesday and Wednesday S of the region...providing
chances for snow. There is some uncertainty...with the ultimate
latitude of the system dictating snow chances and amts. In addition...if
the pattern eases up at all and the lows develop further northward...some
rain in the mix particularly coastal areas. Arctic air still looks
poised for the weekend. The European model (ecmwf) Ushers it in with a clipper Friday
which would bring more snow chances. In summary...there are chances for
precipitation in every period of the extended.


Aviation /21z Friday through Wednesday/...
low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.

Snow will come to an end across kgon shortly...with conds improving
to VFR shortly after snow ends.

Gusty northwest winds through this evening...primarily right of 310
magnetic. Gusts 25-30kt through early evening...diminishing late.

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at:
http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Klga fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Kewr fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Kteb fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Khpn fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Kisp fcster comments: gusts may end an hour or so earlier than
forecast this evening.

Outlook for 18z Saturday through Wednesday...
Monday...chance sub-VFR and snow...especially east of city. Chance NE
gusts around 25kt.
Tuesday...sub-VFR with snow likely...possibly mixed ptype during
the afternoon at the coast...tapering off late in the day.
Wednesday...chance sub-VFR with -shsn. Northwest gust around 25kt.



Low pressure tracks towards the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Minimal
gale force winds gusts on the central and eastern ocean waters and
small craft gusts across the remainder of the forecast waters will
gradually diminishing from west to east this evening as high pressure
builds towards into the waters. The

Small Craft Advisory seas on the ocean will be a bit slower to subside due to
southerly swells...but should subside below Small Craft Advisory towards Saturday
morning. Thereafter...sub Small Craft Advisory conds expected on all waters int
Sat night...although winds gusts up to 20 knots possible on ocean
waters late Sat into Sat night.

Winds and seas blw Small Craft Advisory levels on sun...then deep low pressure will track east
of the waters Sun night and Monday. This will produce at least Small Craft Advisory
conditions...with gales possible. If the storm tracks close
enough...storms will be possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to persist on
the ocean right through Thursday. Elsewhere...periods of Small Craft Advisory level winds
possible with northwest flow developing...especially Wednesday and Thursday.



Widespread precipitation is possible late Sun night through Monday...and again during
the middle of next week. Most if not all of the precipitation that falls
likely to be in the form of snow at this time.


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for anz330-
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for anz350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST Saturday for anz355.


near term...Nevada
short term...Nevada
long term...jmc

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