Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
807 am EDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
a warm front will lift northeast through the area this morning. A
cold front will move across tonight. Canadian high pressure will
build across the area from Thursday into Friday. Waves of low
pressure will traverse a stationary front to the south through the
weekend. A warm front will lift through on Monday...with a cold
front approaching Monday night into Tuesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
upper trough pivots through the region later this morning through
At the surface...a warm front/weak wave...has pushed NE of the
region this morning. This has taken the qlcs with heavy rain and
strong to severe thunderstorms to the northeast of the region as
In its wake...best low level jet/moisture axis is sliding east of the
region. So uncertainty for late morning/early afternoon convection
in terms of amount of destabilization before shortwave passage.
Isolated-scattered convection possible ahead of cold front across
northwestern portions of the region...and along any thermal or
lingering pre-frontal trough in vicinity of NYC/New Jersey metropolitan and
points north and NE through early afternoon. If convection can
develop...it has potential to be severe.
Thereafter...setup does not look favorable for widespread
convection late in the late afternoon into early evening as
shortwave axis is already east of the region. Coverage should be
more isolated along the lagging cold front as it passes
through...with a diminished severe threat due to subsidence and a
Highs in the lower to middle 80s today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
main shortwave axis slides east of the region by this evening...but
a weaker backside shortwave may move through around 00z.
Thereafter...the region will be on the southeast fringe of mean
troughing Thursday and Friday as upper low spins NE through Quebec and
At the surface...the weak cold front slowly slides east through the
region tonight. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain activity possible along the front
in the evening with marginal instability and weak shortwave
forcing...but this should come to an end later in the evening in
wake of shortwave.
Generally dry conditions Thursday and Friday as cold front pushes south
of the area and weak high pressure builds into the region. There
is a low probability of a period of showers across southern portions of
the tri-state Thursday night as a weak shortwave approaches...and wave
to the south may make a close run.
Temperatures will run near seasonable.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
on Saturday...there is still some chance of moisture triggering
some scattered showers/thunderstorms...but will lower probability of precipitation for
most of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on
Saturday should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry weather is
then expected on Sunday...with chance for thunderstorms in for
Monday night as a warm front is predicted to lift through the
area. A cold front is then expected to approach the area Monday
night into Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to be near seasonable levels through the
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a cold front will pass through the region this evening.
Potential for some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms through 15-18z as
the upper system tracks through. Otherwise VFR expected today. There is a
chance for showers and/or thunderstorms to develop this evening right with the cold
front. The probability is too low to include in the tafs however at this time. In
the extended tafs...VFR.
Generally south-southwest flow this morning...then SW flow after 15z. Gust
potential greatest after 17z. Winds shift to the northwest tonight behind the
..NY metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts can
be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)
Kjfk fcster comments: potential for no precipitation to develop this
Klga fcster comments: potential for no precipitation to develop this
Kewr fcster comments: potential for no precipitation to develop this morning.
The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7sm or greater outside of cloud.Kteb
fcster comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn fcster comments: potential for no precipitation to develop this
Kisp fcster comments: potential for no precipitation to develop this
Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday...
Thursday...VFR with light west flow. Sea breezes likely.
Friday...VFR with winds veering from the NE to the east-southeast. Sea breezes
Sat...low pressure will track S of the region. If the low is close
enough...MVFR or lower possible with -ra. Winds generally north.
Sun...improvement to VFR.
ocean seas will gradually build to marginal Small Craft Advisory this afternoon
into evening ahead of a cold front...and continue through tonight.
Otherwise sub Small Craft Advisory winds/seas expected through the period outside
of any thunderstorms.
Isolated heavy downpours possible later this morning through this
No widespread significant precipitation expected through Sunday.
with approaching full moon...tidal departures of only 3/4 to 1 1/2
feet are needed for minor coastal flooding benchmarks to be reached
during the late evening/night high tides the next few days. Minor
benchmarks could briefly be touched across the most vulnerable
areas...particularly along the South Shore bays of Nassau County
and western Li sound...through the late week period.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon today to 6
am EDT Thursday for anz350-353-355.