Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
139 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014
an upper level disturbance crosses the tri-state today. High
pressure builds over the region into early next week...then slowly
retreats to the east and northeast during the middle of next week. A
cold front approaches on Thursday...then slides into the area
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
clouds decreasing across southeast CT and eastern Long Island with
NE flow continuing. The temperatures have risen more where clouds
have lowered. Slight adjustment of maximum temperatures and other
parameters. Probability of precipitation were also adjusted to expand slight chance probability of precipitation
for showers across much of the region with chance probability of precipitation for showers
across interior northeast New Jersey and portions of the lower
Hudson Valley. Still expecting highs mainly before 3 PM with
values mainly in the middle 70s.
There is a moderate risk of the meteorological enhancement of rip
current formation at Atlantic beaches today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
it should be dry tonight with negative vorticity advection in the
wake of the trough axis pressing to our south. Used a blend of NAM
2-meter temperatures with mav and met guidance...with values
around 5 degrees below normal.
Appears that should have a very weak and disjointed 700-500 hpa
shortwave pass through Sunday. For now going with a dry forecast -
but would not be surprised if ultimately ended up with some
sprinkles and maybe a rain showers or two - especially over far
western/northern zones. For highs Sunday used a blend of mav/met
guidance with NAM 2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 875 hpa
per BUFKIT soundings. Highs should be near normal.
Deep layered ridging builds over the area from Sunday night
through Monday night...keeping things dry. Lows Sunday night
should be within a couple degrees of normal in NYC and around 5
degrees below normal elsewhere. For highs Monday continued with a
blend of mav/met guidance with NAM 2-meter temperatures and a mix
down from 875 hpa per BUFKIT soundings for highs. Values should be
a few degrees above normal. For lows Monday night used a blend of
mex/men/ekd/ece/ecm/wpc guidance with values forecast to be a few
degrees below normal.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
a deep layered ridge remains extended over the area from Tuesday
into at least Wednesday. It should be dry through at least then
as a result.
There is quite a bit of differences between the models from late
Wednesday on...with no clear signal favoring one solution over
another. As a result went with a blend of available guidance for
the remainder of the extended...capping probability of precipitation at slight chance due
to the uncertainty. It does appear that on some point either
Thursday or Friday a cold front will at least move into the area.
For temperatures Tuesday-Friday used a blend of
mex/men/ekd/ece/ecm/wpc guidance. Temperatures should be well
above normal Wednesday-Thursday then return to near to below
normal Friday depending on how fast the cold front pushes to our
south. Highs Wednesday could approach...and possibly reach the 90
degree mark over urban portions of NE New Jersey and normally warmer
areas in NYC.
Aviation /17z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure builds south today...resulting in mainly VFR conditions.
Ceilings on the improvement track...with most areas now above 3500 feet.
Brief period of bkn030 at kewr/kteb/kswf through 20z...improving then
to VFR. VFR ceilings remain through the remainder of the forecast
Winds NE 8-10 kts becoming east-southeast/southeast this afternoon. Wind shift could be off
1-2 hours. Winds then shift back to a northerly flow aftr 03z
tonight...decreasing to around 5 kts.
Isolated light showers possible through the afternoon...but low confidence of
occurring and timing so will not include in tafs at this time.
Outlook for 18z sun through Thursday...
Thursday...mainly VFR with slight chance of sub-VFR conditions with
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas issued as buoys 44066 and 44017 have been
consistently 5-6 feet and therefore have forecasted 5 feet for outer
portions of the ocean zones. The easterly winds becoming more
southeasterly should help keep seas elevated through the rest of
the afternoon with gusts at times to 20 knots.
Winds subside tonight so seas trend downward again below 5 feet.
Therefore just have Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM.
Similar wind directions expected for Sunday...but with slightly
weaker winds with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions likely.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions likely prevail through the rest of the
forecast period as a weak pressure gradient remains in place.
Swells could start to build during the middle of next week.
mainly dry through Sunday...then dry Sunday night through at least
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
evening for anz350-353-355.