Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
1032 PM EDT sun Mar 9 2014
high pressure builds into the area through early this evening....
then offshore by morning. Multiple waves of low pressure will
then pass to the north of the area Monday into Monday night. A
storm system will likely impact the area during the middle of the
week. Blustery weather returns for Thursday with high pressure
building in behind the departing low. A cold front will move
across the area on Saturday.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
forecast is on track. Made minor changes to T/dew point to reflect latest
trends. Dew points were still lower than forecast and kept the
trend for a few hours until winds shift to the southwest.
A ridge of high pressure builds across the area overnight and
then offshore by early Monday morning. Middle level clouds across the
Great Lakes in association with warm advection ahead of the first
in a series of waves tracking northwest to southeast across Canada and into the
Great Lakes...will continue to work their way into the area. Weak
warm advection will produce a low chance for light snow during the
pre-dawn hours...primarily across inland areas. This is a light
event with perhaps a dusting of snow. Looking at the latest
mesoscale model runs lends to no changes made to the pop forecast.
Overnight lows will be in the 20s...with the exception being
NYC with readings around freezing. This is at or just below normal.
Used a blend of the met/mav MOS.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/...
fast northwest to southeast flow aloft will steer a series of waves across the
Great Lakes and into the NE on Monday with a warm front situated just
north of the area. The axis gradually lifts north Monday evening
shutting down any light precipitation. Once again...middle level clouds will
produce cloudy conditions in the morning...with some improvement in
the after. Precipitation chances are low during the day and any light snow
in the morning will transition over to rain. Total liquid should
be no more than a few hundredths of an inch with the best chance
across inland areas.
Temperatures will warm above freezing shortly after daybreak at the
coast...and by middle morning well inland. A strengthening SW flow and
warm advection will produce highs in the 40s...with a few 50s
possibly north and west of NYC where there will be less of a
Surface trough from primary low passes across New England late
Monday night with a wind shift to the west-northwest by daybreak Tuesday. Skies
will clear with milder lows generally in the 30s. A few of the
normally colder spots will get into the upper 20s.
Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
models are in good agreement with the 500 mb flow through Tuesday...but
continue to have issues with Pacific northwest energy moving onshore and
phasing with the southern branch of the jet stream by midweek.
While confidence is increasing that we will be impacted by this
system...the details remain in question.
The 500 mb flow starts off nearly zonal across NE quarter of the
country as a trough over The Rockies tracks eastward and eventually
phases with southern stream energy moving across the deep south.
Differences remain in the track and strength of the surface low once
it phases with the southern stream energy over the Ohio Valley and
continues east. Sunysb ensemble sensitivity analysis indicates that
the uncertainty lies with this Pacific energy that will move onshore
early Monday morning. A deeper solution would lend to more ridging
downstream and ultimately result in a track closer to the coast.
These differences could lead to significant changes in the
forecast as a solution further offshore would likely be colder. Have
kept with the idea of mostly a liquid event...with the possibility
of snow as the storm departs and colder air filters in on a northerly
Hoping that once the Pacific energy moves onshore tomorrow where there
is better data sampling...solutions will converge further and
confidence will increase.
As the storm departs...high pressure will build in. The pressure gradient
will be tight with strong cold air advection into Thursday. It will be blustery on Thursday
with highs remaining at or below freezing. Dry weather continues
into the weekend. Perhaps a few showers on Sat with a cold
frontal passage...but kept silent 20 pop for now as moisture is limited.
Temperatures during the week will be a seesaw...as is typical of
March...starting off around 5 degrees above normal on Tuesday...to
around 15 degrees normal on Thursday...back to above normal levels on
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
no significant changes to the previous taf package. West-northwest winds at
8-10 knots at knyc terminals and 5 knots or less elsewhere. Winds back
to the SW after midnight tonight...and then increase to 8-12 knots
VFR through the taf period.
There may be some light snow towards daybreak...and then some
light rain late Monday morning...but confidence and chances are
too low to warrant mentioning in the taf.
Outlook for 03z Tuesday through Friday...
Monday night...sub VFR possible overnight.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR. West winds with gusts to 20kt during the
Wednesday-Wednesday night...sub-VFR likely in snow and/or rain.
Thursday...improving to VFR early. Northwest g25-30kt.
surface ridge axis builds across the waters overnight with
diminishing winds and seas. A moderate SW flow Monday after will result
in winds and seas staying just below criteria on the ocean waters.
SW flow diminishes by Monday evening as a weak trough of low pressure
approaches from the west.
Marginal Small Craft Advisory conds may be reached on the eastern ocean waters Tuesday
morning with a moderate westerly flow in place. Otherwise...tranquil
conds will prevail across the waters into Wednesday afternoon with weak high
pressure in control.
Uncertainty remains with the timing and strength of the midweek
storm...however Small Craft Advisory conds are likely to precede the system...with
gales possible behind it. Will highlight this potential in the
severe weather potential statement. Any headlines should be down by Friday morning...although an
increasing SW flow may result in Small Craft Advisory conds on the ocean waters
late Friday and Friday night.
no significant widespread precipitation expected through early
There is potential for a significant precipitation during the
middle of next week as a storm system tracks near the
region. Currently...between 1/2 and 1 inch of precipitation is
forecast...but uncertainty in the forecast details continues at
this time and this could change significantly.
the National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio transmitter that serves the New York City
metropolitan area remains out of service due to radio frequency
interference with the U.S Coast Guard transmitter.
For more information see the following public information
statement (all lower case):