Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
113 am EDT Friday Aug 29 2014
high pressure will build directly over the area on Friday. The
high moves offshore on Saturday. A cold front approaches Sunday
into Monday and then moves through Tuesday night. High pressure
returns on Wednesday.
Near term /through today/...
skies have cleared and gusts have subsided as expected. A northerly flow
will persist overnight...but a few kts of wind overnight at all
but sheltered and locations well inland will keep radiational
cooling to a minimum. Only minor adjustments needed to hourly T/dew point
and sky. Lows are still forecast to be around 5 degrees below
normal levels...generally in the 50s...except lower 60s in NYC and
upper 40s in Orange County.
Short term /tonight through 6 PM Saturday/...
1020s hi right over the County Warning Area. Light winds and dry weather. Weak return
flow Friday night could bring in enough low level moisture for some patchy
fog. Time-heights show fairly deep moistening however...up to
around h9...so this could be a limiting factor with some stratus
floating around. Have held off on including fog in the forecast at this time
as a result.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development during the
day Friday along the Atlantic Ocean facing beaches.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the long term period starts with high pressure over the region
sliding east during the day Saturday. On Sunday...a cold front
approaches from the west with surface trough development near the
region during the the afternoon. Ridging aloft weakens slightly as
shortwave trough energy moves across southeast Canada and northern
New England. The front will be slow to move through the
region...finally moving through the area late Monday or Tuesday.
High pressure will build back into the region on Wednesday with a
more zonal flow over the region.
With the frontal boundary near the region Sunday through
Tuesday...expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms...with the
best chances Sunday night and Monday.
Expect temperatures on Saturday to remain at or just below
normal...but temperatures will rise Sunday through Tuesday with
temperatures above normal. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday
will return to more seasonable temperatures. Also expect muggy
conditions Sunday through Tuesday as dew points rise into the middle
and upper 60s.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
high pressure over the Great Lakes builds in through today with VFR
North-northwest flow...right of 310 degrees magnetic...is generally
subsiding. Weak pressure gradient will allow for light north-north-northeast winds
after sunrise eventually becoming southeast with sea breezes at all
coastal terminals this afternoon. Wind speeds generally less than
10kt...except at kjfk where winds could be a bit higher.
Winds begin to subside after sunset.
Outlook for 06z Sat through Tuesday...
Sun-Tue...mainly VFR. Possible MVFR conditions with potential
showers and thunderstorms Sun afternoon through Tuesday.
swell still expected to decrease overnight...particularly after
midnight. The Small Craft Advisory for seas on the ocean remains in effect until Friday
morning. Otherwise...northwest winds with gusts to around 2o knots through tonight.
Hipres builds over the waters Friday so light winds with seas
continuing to subside. Winds should then remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
through early next week. Seas may build to Small Craft Advisory levels Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night...mainly across the eastern ocean
waters. Seas expected to fall back below Small Craft Advisory levels Monday
it will remain dry through Sat. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday may produce heavy downpours...with
potential for localized urban/poor drainage flooding.
swells continue to decrease overnight. Since high tide has passed
on the Atlantic and seas at 44017 at 5 feet...have cancelled the high
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT early
this morning for anz350-353-355.