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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York
638 am EST Monday Dec 22 2014

high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes slowly departs today as
low pressure approaches from the south. That low will weaken as it
moves north through the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. A more
significant storm system affects the area Wednesday through early
Christmas day with a cold front passing through late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in late Thursday
through Friday. A weak trough moves through dry Saturday into
Saturday night. Another low approaches from the south Sunday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
radar continues to show a surface trough across the eastern zones
slowly shifting west and producing light precipitation. Moisture is where it is warm enough...patchy drizzle. And where
temperatures are close to or below freezing...flurries expected as it
appears to be just cold enough for ice nuclei to be present. Some
concern however that some of the inland spots (interior SW CT and
adjacent parts of the lower Hudson valley) might not have ice
nuclei...being farther away from the flow off the ocean and sound.
This could result in areas of freezing drizzle this morning instead
of flurries. Will need to keep an eye on this. Have added
drizzle/flurries to the forecast for this morning. Coverage probably
diminishes as the morning wears on.

Otherwise...low pressure will develop over the middle-Atlantic area today
and will begin to lift north late as the high continues to depart.
Warm front associated with the low will push into SW zones late
afternoon/early evening. Some rain showers possible into NYC and
parts of NE New Jersey by the evening commute.

Highs today will range from the low to middle 40s across coastal
zones to the upper 30s across the interior.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
warm front lifts north into the region this evening ahead of the
low. With cold air across the interior slow to depart...can expect
a period of freezing rain...mainly for Orange develop
this evening and to last through much of tonight. Will go ahead
and hoist a Freezing Rain Advisory for Orange County from 6 PM
Monday through 4 am Tuesday. By early Tuesday morning...enough
warm air should surge northward to change precipitation to plain
rain...but not before a light ice accumulation develops. The
evening commute may become hazardous due to the ice.

Otherwise...temperatures will be warm enough to support plain rain for
the rest of the County Warning Area.

Low pressure then weakens as it tracks north along the coast...and
that low will move through the region during the day Tuesday
before departing Tuesday night. Think there will be a brief lull
in the precipitation Tuesday morning in between the first wave of precipitation
associated with the warm front and the second wave associated with
the low.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 30s across the interior
and will slowly rise during the overnight. Elsewhere...can expect
lows generally in the middle to upper 30s.

With warm air advection behind the warm front...highs on Tuesday will climb into
the middle and upper 40s for most areas...and into the low 50s for
coastal areas.


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
some lift associated with the weakened low approaching from the
south brings the likelihood of light rain Tuesday night.

For Christmas evening and Christmas day...low pressure moves through
the Great Lakes region...sending a cold front across the County Warning Area late
night Wednesday into Thursday morning. Rain Wednesday and Wednesday
night. With a strong low level jet...the rain could be heavy at
times Wednesday afternoon and evening. By daybreak on Christmas...rain
will be likely only for a few hours across eastern Li and southeast CT.
Farther west...only a chance of a shower early most of the
day will be dry. As for winds during this period...looks like we
will fall short of Wind Advisory criteria during Wednesday/Wednesday night
in spite of the strong low level jet that will passing over the
eastern zones. These stronger winds will have a difficult time
mixing down through a strong low level inversion. There is however
a chance of a few gusts getting up to near advisory criteria on
Thursday if GFS verifies. European model (ecmwf) is weaker with winds however. Best
guess right now is that we fall just below criteria...but gusts to
criteria are still not out of the question. Temperatures both days
will be above the 50s both days.

High pressure builds in on Friday with plenty of sunshine and
temperatures still above normals. For Saturday...a weakening cold
front approaches and either washes out or passes through as trough
Saturday night. Not much moisture with this kept a
dry forecast for both periods.

Models are in disagreement about what happens on Sunday. For a
couple of runs now...European model (ecmwf) has low pressure passing through or
nearby...with the GFS favoring a northern stream low pressure
center passing well to the north...dragging a cold front through
here. Will go with chance probability of precipitation for now. Will keep precipitation
type simple for now with just rain...snow...or a mix of the two.


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
high pressure continues to ridge down from southeastern Canada...
as a trough of low pressure lingers near the area through tonight.
An area of low pressure approaches from the south late tonight.

Mainly MVFR through the day...with localized variability to IFR or
VFR. Exception is kgon which should remain predominately VFR
through the day. Patchy light rain/drizzle/snow possible this
morning...mainly to the east of a kswf-kisp line. Confidence in
occurrence at any given point is too low to reflect in tafs at this
time. Spotty light rain is then possible at all terminals from
this afternoon through this evening...with mainly MVFR conditions

Appears IFR conditions should develop at all terminals overnight
with slightly steadier light rainfall expected.

North-NE winds under 10 knots...gradually veer to the east-east-northeast this
afternoon. Winds back to the NE again late tonight...with speeds
increasing to around 10kt at coastal terminals.

New York metropolitan enhanced aviation weather support...

Detailed information...including hourly taf wind component forecasts
can be found at: http:/www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/zny/n90 (lower case)

Kjfk fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in changes
in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/dz
possible through 16z.

Klga fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in changes
in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/dz
possible through 16z.

Kewr fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in changes
in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/dz
possible through 16z.

The afternoon kewr haze potential forecast is yellow...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6sm outside of cloud.

Kteb fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in changes
in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/dz/sn
possible through 16z.

Khpn fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in
changes in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/sn/dz
possible through 16z.

Kisp fcster comments: varying ceilings possible. Timing in changes
in wind direction could be off +/- 1-3 hours. Spotty -ra/dz
possible through 16z.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday...
late tonight...IFR likely.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...IFR likely. East winds g15-20 knots probable...
becoming southeast.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...high impact event becoming likely.
IFR with +ra. S/southeast winds 15-20g20-25kt possible. Low level wind shear probable
southern and eastern terminals. Winds shift to the SW late at
Thursday-Thursday night...improving to VFR in the morning from west
to east. West-southwest-northwest winds g30-35+kt likely.
Friday...VFR. West-northwest winds g20-25kt possible.


NE winds 10-15 knots across the waters today as high pressure north of
the waters slowly departs and a warm front associated with
developing low pressure over the middle-Atlantic lifts to the north.

The gradient tightens over eastern ocean waters late tonight and
Tuesday...and will hoist a Small Craft Advisory for anz350 due to
wind gusts up to 25 knots and seas building to 4-6 feet. Small Craft Advisory may have
to be expanded to all ocean waters Tuesday night. All other waters
should remain below advisory criteria.

A deepening low pressure system over the Midwest Wednesday will
result in an increasing southerly flow...and gusts will increase
to small craft levels across all the waters by late Wednesday.
Then Wednesday night the wind gusts on the ocean increase to gale

A cold front associated with the low passes through the waters
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Southerly wind
shifts to the west to northwest and becomes very gusty in the
colder air. Gale force gusts will probably for all waters during
Thursday before subsiding below gale force Thursday night...and
possibly below small craft by the end of Friday as high pressure
builds in. Seas on the ocean will however remain at criteria
levels through Friday.


rainfall from this afternoon through Thursday morning could total
1 1/2 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. Much of the
rainfall is expected to occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible.

Dry weather returns Thursday afternoon through Saturday night.


Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 am EST
Tuesday for nyz067.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 6 PM EST Tuesday for anz350.



near term...jc/mps
short term...mps
long term...jc

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