Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 
229 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013 


Discussion... 
weak surface cool front off to our northwest along the Ohio River 
prognosticated to move down into the middle state during the day and into 
northern Alabama this evening. Will have to keep a small pop going for 
the middle state today due to frontal system with best chance over 
northeast half. Front gets south of my County Warning Area tonight with a modified 
Continental polar air mass sinking down into the Tennessee Valley 
will drive temperatures down into the upper 40s in the northwest to the 
lower 50s elsewhere. Tonights lows will be the coolest since 
may 14th when we had 47 at Nashville...39 at Crossville and 49 at 
Clarksville. Lows this past week have been mostly in the 60s at 
many locations in middle Tennessee. On Friday look for pleasant 
weather with highs around 70 most locations except middle and upper 
60s along upper Cumberland and some eastern areas. Friday night 
lows will be in the 40s at all locations. 


Upper level pattern will be developing into an Omega block with upper 
ridge running north to south through central US as we go through 
the Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures warm up each day over the weekend 
and into next week. Upper ridge gradually translate eastward by 
the middle of next week with strong Bermuda ridge building over 
southeastern US at the surface. Other than a slight chance for 
thunderstorms over northeastern middle Tennessee on Memorial Day I 
kept the forecast dry after today through much of next week. 
Certainly cant rule air mass type stuff developing middle of next 
week but no trigger other than heating can be found. 


Boyd 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Nashville 78 52 70 45 / 20 10 05 0 
Clarksville 76 48 68 43 / 20 10 05 0 
Crossville 73 50 64 41 / 30 20 0 0 
Columbia 81 54 72 46 / 20 10 05 0 
Lawrenceburg 82 55 73 45 / 20 10 05 0 
Waverly 78 50 70 44 / 20 10 05 0 


&& 


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
Boyd 
01