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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
301 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014


Current water vapor loop shows an upper low spinning over the
Middle-Atlantic States. This will exit the Continental U.S. Today allowing for surface
high pressure to settle into the region tonight. With dry conditions
and great radiational cooling...would expect temperatures to drop about 5
degrees or so below normal values for low temperatures this time of year.
Thus some middle 30 temperatures will be possible tonight...mainly in
sheltered areas east of I-65 and especially in locations nearest
the upper Cumberland Plateau. May need a frost advisory for
portions of eastern middle Tennessee for late tonight into Thursday

Otherwise...near normal temperatures will be the rule through Friday as
another dry upper trough traverses the area then. Thereafter upper
ridging over the SW states will strengthen and push eastward
through early next week. A beautiful weekend is in store with
temperatures generally in the low-middle 70s for highs Sat and sun...and
even nearing 80 degrees by Monday. Could be similar temperatures for
Tuesday both days show an increased southwesterly flow. At the
very least Monday-Tuesday will see highs around 80 with gusty SW winds
and with that great of warm air-advection...went several degrees
above mexmos since it looks to be underplaying the warmup.

By the start of the work week...both the GFS and Euro show troughing
over The Rockies which will push east and break down our high
pressure overhead. A surface low will develop downstream from this and
drag a cold front through middle Tennessee either Tuesday or
Wednesday...which will be the next chance for precipitation. But with the
surface low pushing toward the Great Lakes...we may not be able to
squeak out much moisture. Left probability of precipitation in the slight chance category that
far out for now.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 65 40 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 63 38 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 59 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 65 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 66 38 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 65 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...




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