Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
321 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have plagued much of
middle Tennessee today and will continue to do so through this
evening and into much of next week. However for tonight...first
round of storms have weakened significantly as they have
progressed east. The second round of storms will be something to
keep an eye on as they push east of the Tennessee River here
within the next hour. Gusty winds will be the main threat for this
evening along with brief heavy rainfall. Think much of the
convection will die off shortly after sunset giving way to a warm
and muggy night across middle Tennessee with lows generally
falling into the middle 60s.

Same story different day on Sunday with the focus for convection
being centered over much of the forecast area...especially across
areas east of Interstate 65. Previously...short range models were
advertising some much drier air working in from the west for
Sunday...but with the upper low/disturbance essentially cutting
off from the main upper trough...think it will be very difficult
to get rid of this upper level feature any time soon. As a
result...chances for showers and thunderstorms were kept in the
forecast for much of Sunday and the beginning of the work week
with the best chances across the far east. Highs in the low 80s
and lows in the middle 60s can be expected.

Wednesday through Friday...closed upper low loses some of its
punch so a pattern of diurnally driven convection is expected for
middle Tennessee during this time frame. Highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s look reasonable. By next weekend...the closed
low/disturbance finally kicks east allowing a little bit of drying
to occur before northwest flow brings in the next chances for
storms by Sunday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 66 82 63 81 / 60 50 40 20
Clarksville 64 74 58 76 / 50 20 20 10
Crossville 65 79 62 77 / 50 70 50 50
Columbia 65 81 62 81 / 60 60 40 30
Lawrenceburg 65 80 62 80 / 60 70 40 30
Waverly 65 77 60 78 / 50 40 20 10


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations