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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
202 am CST Friday Nov 21 2014

Discussion...good morning, everyone. Just 24 hours ago we were
watching a cold front inch its way across middle Tennessee and
now the surface ridge axis is already shifting to our east, making
way for return southerly flow and a rapid increase in temperatures
the next two days. A strong low pressure system will develop over
Texas this weekend and will move quickly northeastward on Sunday,
with the surface low staying west of the Mississippi River. As the
upper-level pattern amplifies, both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions
push a shortwave through middle Tennessee on Sunday, bringing
widespread convection to the middle state as temperatures climb into
the 60's. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center does not push any severe weather
risk areas this far north, and the GFS forecast soundings show
very little surface-based instability, but given the dynamics of
the atmosphere, will at least include thunderstorms in sunday's
forecast. By 00z Monday, the low enter will be over central
Illinois with a central pressure of 986-990 mb. The actual cold
front will come through on Monday, but with far less fanfare than
sunday's activity. Temperatures will cool gradually after the
fropa, as the upper trough doesn't even come through until maybe
Wednesday, with much cooler weather lasting into next weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 50 39 59 48 / 0 05 05 40
Clarksville 48 39 61 47 / 10 20 10 50
Crossville 47 34 55 43 / 0 0 0 30
Columbia 53 40 61 49 / 05 05 05 40
Lawrenceburg 56 40 61 49 / 05 05 05 40
Waverly 50 41 61 49 / 10 20 10 50

&&

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

Rose

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