Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1052 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Update...added aviation section for 18z taf's.
Aviation...bna/ckv/csv...surface high has moved to our east with
return southerly flow starting to advect warmer air into middle
Tennessee. Skies have fully cleared out and we can expect VFR weather
for at least the next 24 hours. Look for winds to increase
considerably by tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient
strengthens ahead of the next surface system.
Previous discussion... /issued 530 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
12z aviation update.
VFR. Winds may pick up this afternoon at kckv out of the south
around 10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts...otherwise expect
southerly winds around 5 kts at kbna and kcsv this afternoon.
Skies should be clear this afternoon...but ceilings should remain
VFR with any passing clouds today.
Previous discussion... /issued 214 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
upper trough over the east that has persisted for what seems like
the entire month of November keeping temperatures 6 to 7 degrees below
normal finally becomes zonal on Saturday with southwesterly upper
flow developing late in the weekend which means warming temperatures. So
all in all it looks like temperatures through the first week of December
will be at or above normal.
1031 mbar surface high initially over southeastern U.S today will
slip east and align along the eastern Seaboard by 12z Saturday. A
warm front will lift up through the middle state late tonight with
surface pressure gradient tightening up during the day Saturday.
On Sunday a rather strong 1040 mbar surface high will drop down
from western Canada and drive a cold front this way. Front will be
near middle Tennessee by early Monday and become stationary just south
of Tennessee on Tuesday. Theres a good chance for rainshowers in
the middle state...mainly north Sunday night and all of the middle state
Monday into Tuesday night. Much of the cold air behind this front
actually looks to get shunted off to our north as upper flow
becomes southwesterly early in the work week.