Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
906 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015
for evening update.
Current radar showing some diminishing shower activity this
evening with the heavier reflectivity in the southwest along the
Tennessee and Alabama border. Short term models however show some increased
activity later tonight with approaching shortwave energy before
12z. Kept probability of precipitation high from the previous forecast...and adjusted
other elements to match current observation and trends. Rest of the
forecast looks good.
00z taf discussion.
With the looming frontal passage kckv is finally going to see
winds shift to the north over the next hour. The problem is...the
front is moving so slowly that kbna/kcsv might be 12z or later
before any wind shift is seen. The good news...winds are so light
there shouldn't be an aviation issue. Where the issues lie will be
with the falling ceilings and visible at kbna/kcsv. IFR conditions should
finally settle into the kbna/kcsv terminals by 06-09z tonight...
with a couple of hours of LIFR likely around sunrise. Ceilings should
improve a bit after sunrise Sunday...but rains are likely to pick
up as another shortwave brings moderate rains into the middle-state
around the 15-18z time frame.