Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1240 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
18z aviation update...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for the current taf period. VFR conditions should be the primary
flight category during the afternoon...with periods of MVFR/IFR
possible if showers and thunderstorms pass over taf sites. Models
are indicating that MVFR/IFR ceilings and visible will develop overnight
and into the early morning...so trended MVFR towards the end of
the taf cycle. Next update may bring ceilings and visible down a bit more
if models continue to show the downward trend.
Previous discussion... /issued 1048 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/
Minor tweaks to the current forecast this morning. Looking at
current radar trends...pushed back probability of precipitation a bit for the remainder of
the morning. Models are also pushing back probability of precipitation for this afternoon.
Short term models are hinting at weak shortwave activity this
afternoon that may help kick off storms later today...but will
need some help from daytime heating. Satellite shows that we may
get some breaks in the clouds from northwest to southeast today...but models are
quick to fill it in this afternoon. Left likely probability of precipitation in for most
of the County Warning Area this afternoon and evening for mainly the south and
east. Otherwise forecast is on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 711 am CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/
12z taf discussion.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across area airports
this morning generally along and north of an outflow boundary.
Thunderstorms and rain will diminish at airports from northwest to southeast later this
morning...with additional but more scattered activity this
afternoon warranting thunderstorms in the vicinity/vcsh before diminishing this evening.
MVFR/VFR ceilings with IFR/MVFR visible anticipated much of the taf
period...with generally light southwest winds less than 10 kts.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 69 82 67 80 / 70 60 50 60
Clarksville 67 81 67 80 / 40 60 40 60
Crossville 65 76 66 75 / 80 70 60 70
Columbia 71 83 69 80 / 80 60 60 70
Lawrenceburg 71 81 68 79 / 80 60 60 70
Waverly 68 81 70 80 / 40 70 50 60