Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1101 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
for 12z aviation discussion.
VFR. Visible satellite shows a few cumulus and fairly widespread
cirrostratus across southeast parts of the middle state this morning.
South winds around 11 kts with gusts up to 20 kts are expected at
area airports today as 925mb winds increase up to 30 kts by
26/00z...which will keep south winds at 5-10 kts through the night
on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
for 12z tafs.
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period
although winds are likely to become gusty this morning
.South winds gusting 10-20knts.
Discussion...scattered to broken upper level cloud cover is
covering much of the middle Tennessee area this morning. This is in
response to a weak upper level impulse which can be found within
the westerly flow. Otw...the area of surface high pressure has now
moved east of our area. As a result...southerly winds will begin
to pick up today. In fact...the gradient will be tight enough to
produce a few wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour or so.
Look for the weather pattern to remain dry through Thanksgiving
night with southerly to southeasterly winds continuing. Partial high
cloudiness will also continue.
As we move into Friday...we are still expecting a southerly jet to
become more active as an upper level system digs across the western
U.S.. will include low probability of precipitation across mainly our western areas.
For the near term temperatures...a warming trend of our low temperatures in
particular...can be expected. Look for above normal values as the
jet sets up to our northwest.
In the extended forecast...GFS and Euro solutions begin to differ. Will
lean toward the Euro...however...as the GFS pattern looks a bit
strange. Instead...both the Euro and dgex solutions seems to do a
better job with transitioning the upper troughing pattern from west
to east. That said...a rainy period looks to be in store for
Saturday through Monday. First we will see a weak inverted trough
cross the area by Sunday. This will then be followed by a stronger
cold front and the passage of the stronger upper level trough axis
by Tuesday. Precipitation type will be in the form of mostly light to
moderate shower activity. Perhaps...quantitative precipitation forecast totals could reach one
half to 1 inch.
For the ext temperatures...the above normal pattern will continue.
However...more in the way of seasonal temperatures will follow the Tuesday
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 62 47 68 53 / 0 0 0 10
Clarksville 63 47 68 53 / 0 0 10 20
Crossville 57 45 61 50 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 62 45 67 52 / 0 0 0 10
Lawrenceburg 61 46 67 52 / 0 0 0 10
Waverly 62 48 67 53 / 0 0 10 10