Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
620 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
Update...for 00z aviation.
Aviation...00z taf discussion.
VFR flight categories will continue for the next several
hours...but some IFR fog will be likely tonight at kcsv prior to
sunrise. Beyond the reduced visible overnight...an approaching front
will bring showers and thunderstorms into middle Tennessee late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. While the majority of this
activity will likely be after 00z Thursday...especially for kbna
and kcsv...some of it could creep through kckv by the end of this
taf cycle. While flight categories will likely remain VFR for the
most part...any ts directly over the terminal will likely result
in reduced categories for a period of time.
Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
Discussion...it was a typically warm and humid July day in middle
Tennessee...with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s and dew points near 70. A
low pressure center over the Gulf Coast region was creating
scattered showers and storm across the southern states...but most
of the activity was staying south and east of middle Tennessee thanks to an
upper ridge surrounding the Gulf Coast low.
For tonight...mainly quiet weather will persist. Some clouds and brief
showers will stream up from the south at times...affecting mainly
our southeast counties. Otherwise...skies will be partly cloudy
with a few patches of late night fog.
For Wednesday through Wednesday evening...conditions will remain
warm and humid. Thunderstorm chances will increase across middle Tennessee
with the approach of a trough and cold front. Moderately unstable
conditions and precipitable water values near 2 inches will bring the possibility
for a few strong thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours by
A few showers and storms may linger into Thursday...especially
over the southeast counties. Otherwise...a drier and slightly cooler
air mass will be pushing in.
High pressure will be in control Thursday night through much of
Saturday with mainly clear skies. Although the upper flow will be
northwesterly...elevated heights will be moving in from the
west...so maximum high temperatures will rebound quickly to near 90
Friday and into the lower 90s Saturday.
Models agree that a couple of shortwaves and a stronger cold front
will be on the way late Saturday through early Monday. This will
bring some episodes of thunderstorms...with a possible mesoscale convective system. A
decent shot of cooler and drier air will follow the frontal
passage... with dry and cooler than normal conditions lasting
through at least midweek.