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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1236 PM CDT sun may 24 2015

Update...

18z tafs.

&&

Aviation...

Changes expected in the latter part of this cycle as an upper
trough approaches. Deep moisture expected to creep in overnight
..with showers/isolated storms breaking out early Monday. This may
drive ceilings/visibility down ckv and eventually bna. Gusty wind expected
to continue much of the period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 650 am CDT sun may 24 2015/

Update...

12z aviation update.

Aviation...

VFR. Winds will pick up quite a bit out of the south this morning
to be sustained around 15 knots and having gusts between 20 and 25
knots for kckv and kbna. Kcsv will see sustained winds around 10
knots with gusts between 15 and 20 knots. Kcsv may also have winds
pick up a bit to match the other terminals this afternoon. Clouds
should build in today but remain at VFR. Some models indicate
afternoon and evening showers and storms may develop...but are
more likely overnight into Monday morning. For now just have vcsh
mention at kckv this evening as initial activity looks to be scattered.

Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CDT sun may 24 2015/

Discussion...

Mild night across the middle state with current temperatures in the upper
50s and 60s with dewpoints in the 50s. Today will start the
beginning of a much warmer and wetter pattern for our region as
the persistent upper ridge over the southeast Continental U.S. Gets flattened
somewhat and southwest flow aloft increases. Low level jet prognosticated by
guidance to strengthen to 30 kts today and up to 45 kts Sunday
night...which will bring much deeper Gulf moisture into the area
with precipitable waters rising significantly into the 1.25-1.75 inch range by
this evening. As temperatures warm well into the 80s
today...expect some diurnal isolated showers and thunderstorms to
develop west of I-65 this afternoon and across the entire County Warning Area
tonight. In addition...the strong low level jet will bring gusty south winds
to the area today into tonight...so boaters on area lakes and
rivers are urged to use caution as gusts will reach to around 30
miles per hour at times.

More widespread convection is anticipated on Monday as an
intense shortwave aloft creates a large area of showers and
thunderstorms to our west which guidance spreads across our neck
of the Woods during the day. Temperatures will likely be much
cooler than today due to clouds and precipitation. Another intense
shortwave will move quickly across the region Monday night into
early Tuesday...bringing another widespread round of showers and
storms. Storm Prediction Center has placed all of middle Tennessee in a slight risk
for severe storms on Tuesday...and a few strong to severe storms
appear possible due to moderate cape levels and bulk shear around
40 kts. Upper trough over the central and eastern Continental U.S. Will
weaken from Wednesday into next weekend...but continued
southwesterly flow aloft and high moisture levels will prompt
chance to likely probability of precipitation. Afternoon temperatures will also gradually
increase due to less cloud cover and precipitation coverage. Extended
range models show a trough remaining in place over the eastern
Continental U.S. As we move into June...so pattern will likely continue to
be warm and wet as we head into climatological Summer next week.

&&

Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

07

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