Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
804 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014
Infrared satellite imagery this evening shows extensive cirrus spreading
across middle Tennessee in association with a weak shortwave
aloft. Observation upstream show cirrus is not thick enough to affect
temperatures much if at all...so still anticipate lows in the 30s
areawide. Adjusted sky cover upward and lows tonight downward
based on latest observation. Rest of forecast looks on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 516 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
Update...for 00z aviation.
Aviation...00z taf discussion.
VFR conditions to continue through all of this taf cycle. One
question is whether kckv will see any fog late tonight. While I
don't see it happening due to everybody mixing out well today and
the dew point depressions forecast to be 4-6 degrees or
better...just wanted to mention it as one or two pieces of
guidance are suggesting it. Winds will be calm tonight and pick up
out of the west late Saturday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 152 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
upper low spinning along the Carolina coast will gradually shift
north and east of U.S. Mainland and eventually out to sea.The
parent coastal low will follow suit as it gradually gains intensity
Surface ridge from Louisiana up along the Mississippi River into
Indiana with upper ridge just west of this axis. Surface low
already developing out in the Southern Plains at middle-afternoon
with cold front extending from Wisconsin down through Kansas into
the low. Temperatures have warmed into the 50s at all locations today in
middle Tennessee under full sun. Snow and sleet field showing up
on visible across northwest middle Tennessee and areas north and
west...with Land Between The Lakes and other lakes and rivers
brought out quite nicely by this field. Frontal system to our
northwest will move this way on Saturday with temperatures out
ahead of the front getting into the 60s on south winds. Front
works down into middle Tennessee Saturday night with winds turning
northwesterly. It looks like showers will mainly be Post frontal
Saturday night with south half still having a chance mainly Sunday
morning as system sinks farther south. Air mass behind the front
is a mix of Pacific and Canadian air. On Monday high pressure
takes over at the surface with a good southwesterly feed during
the afternoon driving temperatures into the middle and upper 60s.
Warm temperatures will continue on Tuesday but another cold front
will move through Tuesday night knocking highs down for Wednesday
into the 50s. There's a good chance of rain Tuesday night and
Wednesday with possible rain mixing with snow Wednesday night.