Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
246 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016
Upper trough deepens over the middle state tonight, as low center
moves slowly eastward from Indiana to Ohio. Deep moisture and
scattered to numerous snow showers continue to rotate around the
backside and underside of this low center, across middle TN, tonight
and Tuesday. Temperatures also continue to turn colder, with lows
by sunrise Tuesday expected to be in the lower and middle 20s.
Skies remain cloudy over most of the middle state through the day
tomorrow, allowing temperatures to only recover six or seven degrees.
Highs over the extreme north and Highland Rim probably won't even
make it to 30 degrees.
Snow showers continue into Tuesday night before finally ending on
Wednesday. Expect extreme north-central and eastern areas to
probably pick up total snowfall of 1 to 2 inches, with the
greatest amounts along the Cumberland Plateau. Latest model data
suggest that an inch of snow is likely along the Highland Rim and
eastward into Trousdale and Macon counties between now and
Tuesday night. So went ahead and extended the northern part of
the advisory as far west as Sumner County.
Snow amounts as light as a half inch could produce some patchy
icing along untreated roadways in areas outside of the advisory
area. So, even folks further west, around Clarksville...
Nashville...Franklin and Murfreesboro should remain alert for
slick spots through Tuesday night, especially along untreated
secondary roads and on bridges and overpasses.
We stay in this northwest flow pattern through early next week,
with another cold wave expected to sweep in over the weekend. A
shortwave then drops in from the northwest Sunday night and Monday
will bring the potential for another shot of wintry precipitation
late in the extended.
18z taf discussion.
Bna/ckv/csv...surface front has cleared the middle state with most
locations now showing a VFR overcast and a few echoes starting to
show up on radar. Expect intermittent light precipitation during
the afternoon, becoming a little heavier and more widespread
toward 00z. Current observation show MVFR ceilings still far upstream, so we
probably won't see ceilings drop below 3kft until later tonight, with
light snow lasting well into tomorrow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 24 31 18 29 19 / 70 60 20 0 0
Clarksville 21 28 15 26 16 / 60 60 10 0 0
Crossville 20 25 14 22 12 / 80 60 30 20 0
Columbia 25 31 17 30 17 / 50 60 10 0 0
Lawrenceburg 25 31 17 32 18 / 50 60 10 0 0
Waverly 24 30 17 29 17 / 60 60 10 0 0
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Wednesday for Clay-