Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1027 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
Update...extensive cloud cover across middle Tennessee appears unlikely to
break up much today...so have increased sky cover and lowered high
temperatures in the forecast. An upper level low pressure over our
eastern counties may produce a few showers/storms east of I 65.
Previous discussion... /issued 744 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
MVFR/IFR conditions across the region will slowly improve later
today as low-level moisture dries some. Conditions expected to be
VFR all sites toward 00z but fog likely to redevelop tonight...
with conditions going back to MVFR after 06z...IFR csv. Winds
will remain on the lighter side.
Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015/
Upper low centered over north central middle Tennessee this morning.
However...the deeper moisture and upper divergence fields are well
east of the trough axis. This feature is expected to move slowly
east through Thursday. Lower moisture depth levels will attempt to
infiltrate western portions of the middle state beginning today. In
fact...cape to cap ratios will fall to minimal values across
western areas today and again on Wednesday. Across the plateau
however...due to the closer proximity of the upper low...low
convection chances will continue...primarily for the after and evening.
Otw...low level cloudiness will scour out this afternoon.
But...tover values will begin to go slightly negative this afternoon
for the Tuesday nt period. Model numerics support patchy fog late
tonight as well. Will go ahead and include patchy fog late area
For the near term temperatures...slow warming trend expected as the trough
axis moves slowly east of the area. Will lean toward the GFS MOS.
In the ext forecast...upper high will begin to build over Texas. This will
place the middle state under a northwest flow which will initially start out
on the dry side. By Sunday however...a frontal boundary and a
potential mesoscale convective system will be developing just upstream. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase for Sunday and Monday.
For the ext temperatures...height values in association with the northwest flow
will be rather elevated. Upper high over Texas will stay put but will
attempt to ridge toward the deep south by then end of the ext. This
all equates to warm weather with temperatures into the upper 80s through
much of the extended. The expected 850 mb temperatures concur with the
upper 80s temperatures as well. Overnight lows will generally be in the
upper 60s west of plateau.