Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
300 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015
Quiet night across the middle state so far...with some high clouds
off to the southeast and calm conditions. Weak upper trough
overhead may provide enough of a disturbance to kick off some
isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon. The NAM
seems to be a bit more aggressive than the other models for the
afternoon...but most models agree on some isolated activity.
Placed schc probability of precipitation in for the west and south...and along the plateau
for the afternoon.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be possible again on
Friday for the plateau as a weak upper disturbance slides
southward along the eastern side of the ridge. Things look similar
for Saturday afternoon through Sunday as well along the
plateau...but may extend further west in regards to probability of precipitation to the
i65 corridor. By Sunday afternoon...chances for precipitation moves a
bit further west to bring in most of middle Tennessee during the
By Monday...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) differ slightly on their solutions
for the region...but decided to keep mention of probability of precipitation for the
plateau on Monday afternoon. From Monday afternoon through
Wednesday...subtle shortwaves may bring additional chances for
precipitation over the region but chances are slim. The better shot for
precipitation next week looks to be on Wednesday into Thursday. The European model (ecmwf)
is showing a more pronounced shortwave trough moving into the
region and is a bit ahead of the GFS with precipitation placement over
middle Tennessee. For now have chance probability of precipitation in for Wednesday
afternoon through late Thursday but will likely be adjusted when
models line up better in regards to trough and frontal timing.
Aviation update...06z aviation discussion.
Predominate MVFR fog possible ckv/csv 03/08z-03/14z per breaks in cloud
coverage...calm winds...and low level moisture pooling potential.
Otherwise...it continues to look like a "dirty" ridging surface/aloft pattern
will continue to result in possible scattered/broken ac to scattered/broken cirrus through 04/06z.
Calm to light surface north/NE winds expected. Diurnal driven isolated shower/thunderstorm
possible 03/18z-04/01z also...but really isolated nature development potential
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 93 71 93 71 92 / 10 0 10 10 10
Clarksville 92 68 92 68 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
Crossville 87 68 86 67 85 / 20 10 20 10 40
Columbia 92 69 92 69 92 / 20 0 10 10 20
Lawrenceburg 91 68 92 68 91 / 20 0 10 10 20
Waverly 92 68 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 10