Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
257 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
Discussion...fair weather is expected to continue through Thanksgiving
with high pressure in control. Over the next couple of days...the
center of the high will move off to the east...as upper heights
rise. This will cause south winds to increase...with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the 30s...and then 40s for
Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 50s to lower
60s...then will reach well into the 60s for Thanksgiving day.
The weekend looks wet with periods of showers. There are still
some model inconsistencies regarding the onset of
showers...especially for our southeast and plateau
counties. The showers could be a bit slower than our forecast
indicates. An upper level low pressure system will develop over
the western states...causing an active southern jet to
develop...with plenty of deep moisture. This will be enhanced by a
slow moving cold front...which will be oriented nearly parallel to
the upper flow. Rainfall amounts through the weekend are expected
to range from about one quarter in our southeast counties...to a
little more than one inch in the northwest counties of middle Tennessee.
The front is likely to stay to our northwest...so temperatures
will remain fairly mild for this time of year. It looks like the
front will finally be kicked through here with an end to showery
weather by Wednesday.
18z aviation discussion. Ridging influences surface/aloft will
continue to provide for VFR conditions...with broken cirrus the only
cloudiness of note to be expected through 25/18z. Surface winds should be
southeast-S around 5kts through 25/18z also.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 38 62 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 36 63 48 66 / 0 0 0 10
Crossville 34 57 43 62 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 35 62 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 36 61 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 37 62 48 66 / 0 0 0 10