Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
304 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
Warm and tranquil weather continues as surface high pressure
persists east of the area. Slightly deeper moisture is expected
over the plateau for Wednesday and Thursday with some degree of
upslope flow. This could lead to a couple of diurnally driven
isolated thunderstorms in that area. Friday looks slightly drier
therefore left no mention of weather. Beggining over the weekend
attention will have to be given to the trough slowly traversing
the Central Plains. Ridge appears to remain strong enough and the
axis oriented close enough to middle Tennessee Saturday and Sunday to
limit any significant precipitation. Probability of precipitation will be slightly higher
on Saturday in the west where more moisture will be available.
Probability of precipitation will slowly increase on Sunday...Monday...and Monday night
until frontal passage Tuesday morning. Probability of precipitation will then begin to decrease west
to east on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend.
850 mb temperatures will slowly climb through Sunday resulting in
temperatures across middle Tennessee in the middle to even a few upper 80s
by Saturday. Sunday could be just as warm as Saturday as long as
cloud cover doesn't sneak in from the west. Monday will be a
couple of degrees cooler with increased cloud cover. Look for
highs to be closer to normal on Tuesday behind the front.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 57 86 59 87 / 0 05 05 05
Clarksville 58 85 58 85 / 0 05 05 05
Crossville 55 79 57 79 / 0 20 10 20
Columbia 55 85 57 86 / 0 10 05 05
Lawrenceburg 55 84 58 86 / 0 10 05 05
Waverly 57 85 59 85 / 0 10 05 05