Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
554 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
VFR conditions through the taf period at all three locations...
only steady north-northwesterly winds around 10 kts which will
become light and variable after sunset this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
Quiet conditions continue tonight across the region as high
pressure settles in. Similar conditions as yesterday can be
expected today with northerly flow at the surface and clear skies.
Winds should slowly work their way to southerly by late Sunday
into Monday...but more substantial south to southwesterly flow
should arrive Tuesday. This will keep the steady warming trend
through the weekend and into early next week in tact...with
Tuesday looking to be the warmest day with highs in the low to middle
The reason for the southerly flow early next week and warming is
due to the approaching trough that will finally bring a good
chance for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree
on location of the trough but the GFS is a bit more aggressive
with the strength of the trough over the MS River Valley. Either
way it looks like middle Tennessee should see some precipitation late Wednesday
into Thursday with lingering chances into Friday. The weekend is
still difficult to pinpoint at this time due to the different flow
solutions by the long term models. The GFS has a trough and is a
bit more wet while the European model (ecmwf) has ridging a bit further east over
the region. Both models have subtle shortwaves as well...so trying
to pinpoint better timing for precipitation next weekend will have to
wait until theres better model agreement.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Nashville 92 64 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 89 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 85 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 91 62 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 90 63 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 89 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0